Crop Outlook Declining - Tuesday, 31 July 2012

I am starting to sound like a broken record-but again the Midwest experienced disappointing rains over the weekend and unfortunately in many areas the damage to the corn crop is done and with a 15 day forecast that shows only a ½ inch of rain is expected soybean yields will drop further as well.  Excessively high temperatures are predicted to continue across many states this week like Kansas City where temperatures are expected to average from 99- 115 degrees!

 

 

Elwynn Taylor told attendees of the Farm Bureau Economic Summit in Ames, Iowa that in 1988 a low pressure system persisted in the Gulf of Alaska that caused similar weather conditions in the Midwest similar to those we have witness for the past 6 months.  Three weeks ago this low moved out and if conditions repeat themselves as they did in 1988 we can expect 3 more weeks of dry conditions before the drought finally breaks.  He also stressed that the worst may be yet to come, he predicts that we can expect 25 years of volatile yields which will again be followed by 19 years of consistent yields.

The dry conditions are not unique to the United States alone, Russia’s crop is reported to be declining and and export ban is planned.  The United States has actually reported a negative corn export number due from the cancellation of orders as well as livestock producers in the U.S. importing from other countries.  Brazil is now considering cutting off corn exports fearing a shortage of corn in their country as well.  Informa has adjusted their end of August corn yield estimate to 134 bu./acre and  this Friday, August 3rd they will announce the results of yield estimates and field analysis from their clients which are expected to give some insight into the USDA’s numbers that are set to be released next week.

 

Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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