Weather Concerns - Monday, 25 June 2012

Weather is still the major news prompting our grain markets higher.  Hot and dry is the forecast for the corn-belt through the July 4th holiday with temperatures forecasted to climb to levels in the Midwest not seen for the past 6 years.  Some regions are expecting temperatures into the 100’s this week with very limited rainfall potential.  There are field scouts in the Eastern Corn Belt reporting complete fields will be lost from the extreme temperatures and lack of adequate rainfall.  It is reasonable to consider that the potential for big yields expected by the USDA could be starting to decline, I have heard estimates as low as 152-158 bu./acre yields.  The old January high of $5.97 could be taken-out this week so keep a watchful eye on that over the next few days. Past history reminds us that often times the corn market loses steam after the July 4th timeframe but soybeans on the other-hand could be a different story.  Traders have pointed out that soybean carryover could be very low based on dry conditions in the U.S. where short statured soybeans are reported in most areas, and poor production numbers out of Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Australia all contribute to the concern. 







In Ag news the new Farm Bill passed the Senate with a 64-35 vote and is now headed to the House of Representatives for further debate.  The financial situation in Europe and the stronger U.S. Dollar continue to weigh into the grain markets but following the presidential election effects of these macro markets generally become more evident and produce a greater impact then prior to the election.  So if these current issues continue or worsen could have a remarkably negative outcome on market prices.

After LAST WEEKS crop progress report it was noted that this was the 2nd lowest rating in the past decade at this stage in the growing season.  It will be interesting to see where this week’s report fits into the historical numbers!










Now is a good time to start pricing your inputs for the 2013 crop season.  Fertilizer and seed should be first on your list of input items to lock in, so start calling your suppliers for prices and don’t be afraid to shop several dealers to make certain you are getting the best price available for the products you need.


The July 15th acreage reporting deadline in quickly approaching; please visit with your local FSA office to get your acres turned in before this date.

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