USDA Update - Monday, 31 March 2014

The March Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions report was announced this morning at 11:00 CST with fairly neutral findings. 


Quarterly Stocks

Actual:  7.01 billion bushels    

Trade Expected:  7.099 billion bushels


USDA Expects:  91.7 million acres

Trade Expected:  92.7 million acres


Quarterly Stocks

Actual:  992 million bushels

Trade Expected:  989 million bushels


USDA Expects:  81.5 million acres

Trade Expected:  81.075 million acres


The number for corn acres is the lowest number since 2010, that year the USDA estimated 91.7 million acres.  Overall the planting intentions for the 8 major U.S. crops were reported at 255.7 million acres which is the second highest since 2007 (perhaps even prior to that) and only 2 million less than the number in 2012.  This report is generally known for being heavy on acres but given the numbers released today some analysis feel the opposite may be true and it may actually end up another 1-2 million acres higher than the report estimate. Corn finished the day higher after much volatility to start the day but still much less activity then many years.  Out of the previous 7 years this report has forced corn prices limit lower 2 times and limit higher 2 times, and as we all remember last year when corn prices fell $1.00 in just 3 days!  Soybeans have also seen large price movements of no less than $.30 for the past 6 years!



The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report came last week.  It found 62.9 million head which is a 3% drop from a year ago and 5% less than December.  The recent report on PEDv (the highly infectious and fatal swine disease found in several areas of the country) showed that 60% of all breeding herds within the U.S. have seen some signs of this infection which is expected to decrease the slaughter number by as much as 25% by this fall.  One bright spot in all of this is that the virus thrives in cold temps so as spring arrives and temps begin to rise across the U.S. hopefully the spread of the virus will decline.  This virus is not isolated to the United States; Canada reported its first case in late January and has seen the rate of infection continue to rise.  Japan has a suspected case of the virus and the Dominican Republic also recognizes the virus’ presence in that country as well.

Number of reported PEDv cases by state


The weather this week looks to be cool and rainy.  The 90 day long-range forecast is out and shows:

April:  Below normal temperatures and normal precipitation.

May:  Below normal temperatures and normal precipitation.

June:  Normal to slightly below normal temperatures and normal precipitation.

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