Update for August 24th, 2018 - Friday, 24 August 2018

Update for August 24th, 2018

 

Trade talks have been ongoing this week in Washington between Chinese vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen and U.S. Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass.  President Trump has stated, “he doesn’t expect much progress” from the talks but instead the discussions are aimed at helping facilitate a possible resolution in November when President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet for multilateral talks.

NAFTA appears very close to a resolution according to Mexican officials Wednesday.  Mexican Economy Minister Guajardo told reporters before meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that, “we hope that we’ll have a solution in the next couple of hours, or the next couple of days”. A spokesperson from Lighthizer’ office said that there are still some major issues to be worked out so there is no deal as of yet.

The USDA is expected to unveil details of the $12 billion assistance plan for farmers affected by U.S. trade disputes next week, possibly as soon as Monday.  The 3 part plan is composed of the Farmer Assistance Program, Food Purchase and Distribution Program and a Trade Promotion Program.  While the USDA is keeping implementation details quiet Agri-Pulse reports that officials that are close to the decision making process have proposed a payment rate of $1.65 per bushel on soybeans and $.01 per bushel on corn. These payments rates could change and the planned rates to be paid to producers of sorghum, wheat, cotton, dairy and hogs was not included in the information.  Grant Kimberley, director of market development for the Iowa Soybean Association told Agri-Pulse, “I’ve heard it will be $1.50 to $1.90 per bushel. That’s about what the impact of prices have been since the trade war went into effect.  It would make sense that it would be in that range.  The impact on prices has been about a 20% hit since the tariff went into effect.” A USDA spokesperson asked about the Agri-Pulse report would not confirm any of the figures. U.S. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue told Reuters that they hoped to have the program, which will send $7 to $8 billion in direct cash relief to producers, up and running after Labor Day but he declined to give any other specific details.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour has reported some impressive numbers this week which is causing the trade to consider the possibility that the USDA corn yield could get even bigger, possibly +180 bushel average.  The only state with lower yield results from the tour this year was Minnesota which had a -6.7% decline from last year. All of the other states visited on the tour are expected to see an increase in yield over a year ago including Iowa which is estimated to see yields increase by +4.7% from a year ago.  The maps below were designed by the Van Trump Report using the data gathered and reported from the Farm Journal Crop Tour.

 

 

Soybean basis in many areas has been widening and there are reports out of South Dakota of basis in some locations running -$1.70 under. Cooperative weather with seasonable temps and beneficial rainfall have many traders wondering if the U.S. could see a yield over the projected 52 bushels per acre which could take the soybean carryout up to 1 billion bushels. Brazilian currency has fallen in value against the U.S. Dollar which is not helping to attract buyers to U.S. exports as previously hoped and there is also a high likelihood that producers in Brazil will increase soybean acres during the next season.   The Pro Farmer Crop Tour results for Minnesota and Iowa’s soybean crops was also announced last night.  While the corn crop in MN is showing a lower yield expectation for the season the soybean crop looks to be about +6.9% better than a year ago.  The crop in Iowa also looks promising this year, up +10.6% from last year. The maps below were designed by the Van Trump Report using the data gathered and reported from the Farm Journal Crop Tour.

 

Above average temps are expected to return to the U.S. Heartland by the weekend.  Once the heat returns temps are forecast to run 10-15 degrees above normal and last through the first week of September. Weather models are mostly in agreement that the Upper Midwest will see above average rainfall through early September while the southern Corn Belt, Ohio Valley and Plains will see drier conditions.  The models still are not in agreement about the precipitation chances for North Dakota and Iowa during this time but at this point the map indicates the chance for above average rainfall.

 

 

 

CROP CONDITIONS

 

Corn Dough - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

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                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 19,  : August 12,  : August 19,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Colorado .......:     46            42            64            50     

Illinois .......:     89            90            94            85     

Indiana ........:     78            75            86            73     

Iowa ...........:     76            73            85            70     

Kansas .........:     81            77            88            81     

Kentucky .......:     74            70            80            70     

Michigan .......:     54            39            58            58     

Minnesota ......:     69            65            82            66     

Missouri .......:     89            88            95            87     

Nebraska .......:     80            77            88            79     

North Carolina .:     97            91            94            96     

North Dakota ...:     48            63            84            49     

Ohio ...........:     68            66            81            70     

Pennsylvania ...:     44            56            68            53     

South Dakota ...:     62            72            88            69     

Tennessee ......:     95            94            98            94     

Texas ..........:     89            91            93            88     

Wisconsin ......:     49            45            62            49     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:     74            73            85            72     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Corn Dented - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 19,  : August 12,  : August 19,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Colorado .......:      6             3             8            11     

Illinois .......:     39            45            63            36     

Indiana ........:     37            26            43            28     

Iowa ...........:     19            22            42            21     

Kansas .........:     38            42            58            36     

Kentucky .......:     55            48            59            49     

Michigan .......:     10             7            14             9     

Minnesota ......:     11            12            26            14     

Missouri .......:     62            58            79            53     

Nebraska .......:     26            18            38            25     

North Carolina .:     88            69            80            86      

North Dakota ...:      5             6            29             6     

Ohio ...........:     15            16            34            18     

Pennsylvania ...:      5             8            22            17     

South Dakota ...:     12            11            38            12     

Tennessee ......:     69            56            71            66     

Texas ..........:     75            79            82            69     

Wisconsin ......:      5             4            18             9      

                :                                                      

18 States ......:     27            26            44            26     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 19, 2018

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                          percent                         

                :                                                          

Colorado .......:     3          16          24          50           7    

Illinois .......:     2           4          18          47          29    

Indiana ........:     2           7          20          52          19    

Iowa ...........:     2           6          19          52          21    

Kansas .........:     9          17          28          39           7    

Kentucky .......:     2           7          17          62          12    

Michigan .......:     5          14          30          44           7    

Minnesota ......:     2           5          19          49          25    

Missouri .......:    21          23          28          23           5    

Nebraska .......:     2           4          10          57          27    

North Carolina .:    11          20          34          28           7    

North Dakota ...:     2           6          22          55          15    

Ohio ...........:     1           4          18          58          19    

Pennsylvania ...:     1           5          20          42          32    

South Dakota ...:     4           8          23          47          18    

Tennessee ......:     3           5          24          49          19    

Texas ..........:    12          24          35          27           2    

Wisconsin ......:     2           5          18          43          32    

                :                                                          

18 States ......:     4           8          20          48          20    

                :                                                           

Previous week ..:     3           7          20          50          20    

Previous year ..:     3           9          26          48          14    

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Soybeans Setting Pods - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :             

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 19,  : August 12,  : August 19,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Arkansas .......:      95            95            97           90      

Illinois .......:      91            90            95           86     

Indiana ........:      85            85            92           86     

Iowa ...........:      87            89            93           85     

Kansas .........:      77            74            82           67     

Kentucky .......:      69            67            76           66     

Louisiana ......:     100           100           100           96     

Michigan .......:      84            69            80           86      

Minnesota ......:      90            92            97           88     

Mississippi ....:      95            93            96           90     

Missouri .......:      73            66            76           62     

Nebraska .......:      87            79            92           88     

North Carolina .:      63            54            65           60     

North Dakota ...:      87            89            97           89     

Ohio ...........:      82            84            90           84     

South Dakota ...:      88            81            91           85     

Tennessee ......:      83            78            88           77     

Wisconsin ......:      86            80            89           82     

                :                                                       

18 States ......:      86            84            91           83     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Soybean Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 19, 2018

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                          percent                         

                :                                                          

Arkansas .......:     3           7          26          48          16    

Illinois .......:     3           3          20          48          26    

Indiana ........:     2           6          21          52          19    

Iowa ...........:     2           5          23          54          16    

Kansas .........:     6          15          37          37           5    

Kentucky .......:     2           4          17          65          12    

Louisiana ......:     1           9          40          42           8     

Michigan .......:     3           8          26          54           9    

Minnesota ......:     3           6          24          48          19    

Mississippi ....:     -           4          26          53          17    

Missouri .......:    14          23          29          29           5    

Nebraska .......:     2           5          12          59          22    

North Carolina .:     5           7          36          43           9    

North Dakota ...:     2          15          29          48           6    

Ohio ...........:     1           4          20          56          19    

South Dakota ...:     5           8          27          46          14    

Tennessee ......:     2           5          24          47          22     

Wisconsin ......:     2           6          17          47          28    

                :                                                          

18 States ......:     3           8          24          49          16    

                :                                                           

Previous week ..:     3           7          24          50          16    

Previous year ..:     3           9          28          50          10    

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-  Represents zero.                                                         

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