USDA Report Wrap-Up - Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Update for August 15, 2018

 

Last Friday the USDA delivered an even bigger bearish report than most traders had anticipated. The biggest surprise came in the soybean yield estimate where yields were raised by 3.1 bushels per acre, a 2.0 bushel per acre increase over what the trade had expected. The corn yield also saw an increase in the August estimate. Given the current figures the projected season-average price for producers for corn is down .20 cents at the midpoint at a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018-19 is now estimated at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint which is .35 cents lower than a month ago.

 

U.S. Production

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn Yield

178.4

176.2

171.0 - 180.2

174.0

Corn Production

14.586

14.411

14.150 - 14.740

14.230

Soybean Yield

51.6

49.6

48.0 - 51.5

48.5

Soybean Production

4.586

4.407

4.280 - 4.576

4.310

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

All Wheat

1.877

1.850

1.700 - 1.885

1.881

All Winter

1.189

1.180

1.050 - 1.201

1.193

Hard Red Winter

0.661

0.656

0.635 - 0.665

0.657

Soft Red Winter

0.292

0.302

0.290 - 0.313

0.303

White Winter

0.267

0.230

0.210 - 0.240

0.232

Other Spring

0.614

0.601

0.633 - 0.570

0.614

Durum

0.073

0.074

0.069 - 0.078

0.075

U.S. Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

2.027

2.021

1.900 - 2.137

2.027

Soybeans

0.430

0.460

0.437 - 0.480

0.465

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

1.684

1.636

1.457 - 1.812

1.552

Soybeans

0.785

0.638

0.565 - 0.726

0.580

Wheat

0.935

0.961

0.850 - 1.018

0.985

World Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

193.33

190.81

189.00 - 192.62

191.73

Soybeans

95.61

95.53

92.00 - 97.00

96.02

Wheat

273.07

273.12

271.00 - 274.00

273.50

World Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

155.49

152.59

148.00 - 158.23

151.96

Soybeans

105.94

99.33

94.00 - 102.20

98.27

Wheat

258.96

256.42

250.00 - 259.90

260.88

 

The USDA corn yield in the August report was +4.4 bushels higher than last month’s estimate and a record 178.4 bushels per acre. The high USDA population count was not much of a surprise but the high ear weight, 3rd highest in 10 years had not been anticipated. The report broke down yield expectations by state with Illinois (forecasted to be 6 bushels per acre better than last year which would increase the state record yield to 207 bushels per acre), Indiana, Nebraska (the yield forecasted at 196 bushels per acre which is an impressive 11 bushels per acre higher than the previous state yield record set in 2015), Ohio and both North and South Dakota will harvest higher yields than last year. Iowa yields are expected to remain steady from a year ago while Missouri, Minnesota and Kansas can look for lower yields than last year. Total U.S. corn production was increased +356 million bushels from the July report to 14.6 billion. Demand remains strong for corn, exports were raised +125 million and corn used for feed was increased +100 million bushels. Ethanol was not adjusted in this report but some analysts believe it will be increased in the coming weeks.

The weekly corn crop rating fell 1% last week to 70% Good/Excellent. 73% of the crop is in the dough stage compared to 58% a year ago and the 5 year average of 56%.  The USDA also reported that 26% of the crop is dented vs 15% last year and the 5 year average of 13%.  A few of the notable crop rating changes:

  • North Carolina was the only state that saw an increase in the GD/EX corn rating. Climbing by 1% to 35% GD/EX.
  • North Dakota declined by -6% to 79% GD/EX
  • Illinois GD/EX conditions fell -5% to 76%
  • Nebraska saw the GD/EX rating fall by -2% to 83%

 

 

Soybean production is forecast to reach a new all-time record of 4.586 billion bushels, up +276 million based on an expected 51.6 bushel per acre national average. One state to watch this fall is Illinois the yield forecast for this year sits at 64 bushels per acre which would beat the states previous record of 59 bushels per acre set back in 2016.  This huge production number also raises our new-crop ending stocks which are now projected to reach 785 million bushels. Some analysts feel that the U.S. ending stocks figures are too high as the USDA is underestimating our total soybean exports. Meaning that in time they believe our deeply discounted U.S. soybeans will attract attention from new and non-traditional buyers alike. Some of this may already be in the works due to the transit dispute in Brazil that occurred this spring causing issues for their soybean exports.  Truckers demanded fees ranging from $3.00-$4.50 per bushel that were charged to the exporters. They in turn then passed the cost on to the importers of those bushels resulting in much higher soybean costs. As a result some of these buyers have been reconsidering their orders and are looking at U.S. soybean imports instead.  The issue is no one knows that this will happen for certain and until we see some new orders for U.S. soybeans the USDA probably won’t be making any substantial adjustments.

The soybean crop rating fell by -1% to 66% GD/EX last week. 96% of the crop is blooming which ahead of the 5 year average of 92% and pods are now set on 84% of the soybean crop up from the 5 year average of 72%.

 

 

WeatherTrends 360 forecast looks for a couple of cold fronts to move into the Midwest and East within the next two weeks.  With these cold fronts the first 40 degree temps of the season for the Upper Midwest will arrive….  Their fall outlook for September through November is shown in the box below.

 


 

A low-pressure system is moving across the Heartland this week bringing elevated chances of rainfall.  Estimates range anywhere from 1-3 inches depending on your location but some of the drier areas could miss the heaviest rainfall amounts.  Rain changes do improve in the longer range outlooks.

 

 

 

 

CROP PROGRESS

 

Corn Dough - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 12,  :  August 5,  : August 12,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Colorado .......:     22            23            42            26     

Illinois .......:     74            81            90            71     

Indiana ........:     62            58            75            55     

Iowa ...........:     59            55            73            53     

Kansas .........:     67            65            77            67     

Kentucky .......:     62            58            70            58     

Michigan .......:     36            22            39            37     

Minnesota ......:     51            45            65            48     

Missouri .......:     83            84            88            77     

Nebraska .......:     61            57            77            58     

North Carolina .:     95            87            91            92     

North Dakota ...:     35            32            63            29     

Ohio ...........:     52            48            66            50     

Pennsylvania ...:     26            32            56            38     

South Dakota ...:     43            53            72            47     

Tennessee ......:     89            88            94            88     

Texas ..........:     70            86            91            82     

Wisconsin ......:     32            28            45            31     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:     58            57            73            56     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Corn Dented - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 12,  :  August 5,  : August 12,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Colorado .......:      1             -             3             2     

Illinois .......:     24            21            45            20     

Indiana ........:     18             3            26            13     

Iowa ...........:      7             8            22             9     

Kansas .........:     22            23            42            19     

Kentucky .......:     40            32            48            35     

Michigan .......:      3             -             7             1     

Minnesota ......:      2             4            12             4     

Missouri .......:     44            35            58            35     

Nebraska .......:     12             6            18            10     

North Carolina .:     78            55            69            76     

North Dakota ...:      1             -             6             2     

Ohio ...........:      5             3            16             7     

Pennsylvania ...:      1             1             8             6     

South Dakota ...:      4             4            11             3     

Tennessee ......:     49            24            56            46     

Texas ..........:     61            70            79            63     

Wisconsin ......:      2             -             4             2     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:     15            12            26            13     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                                     

 

Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 12, 2018

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                          percent                         

                :                                                           

Colorado .......:     3           8          26          58           5    

Illinois .......:     2           4          18          44          32    

Indiana ........:     2           7          20          52          19    

Iowa ...........:     2           5          18          53          22    

Kansas .........:     7          15          31          41           6    

Kentucky .......:     2           6          22          59          11    

Michigan .......:     7          13          32          42           6    

Minnesota ......:     2           5          16          52          25    

Missouri .......:    21          24          29          22           4    

Nebraska .......:     1           4          12          57          26    

North Carolina .:     9          21          35          31           4    

North Dakota ...:     1           3          17          62          17    

Ohio ...........:     1           4          19          56          20    

Pennsylvania ...:     -           4          24          48          24    

South Dakota ...:     2           5          24          51          18    

Tennessee ......:     3           5          24          50          18    

Texas ..........:    12          24          35          27           2    

Wisconsin ......:     1           5          16          46          32    

                :                                                          

18 States ......:     3           7          20          50          20    

                :                                                          

Previous week ..:     3           7          19          50          21    

Previous year ..:     3           9          26          49          13    

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                                        

 

Soybeans Blooming - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 12,  :  August 5,  : August 12,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                        

                :                                                      

Arkansas .......:      98            99           100           94     

Illinois .......:      97            95           100           93     

Indiana ........:      93            91            95           93     

Iowa ...........:      93            94            96           94     

Kansas .........:      89            89            94           85     

Kentucky .......:      78            76            86           76      

Louisiana ......:     100           100           100           99     

Michigan .......:      92            84            90           94     

Minnesota ......:      97            95            99           96     

Mississippi ....:      98            96            97           95     

Missouri .......:      87            86            89           79     

Nebraska .......:      97            93            96           96     

North Carolina .:      85            70            83           74      

North Dakota ...:      93            97            99           96     

Ohio ...........:      90            90            95           93     

South Dakota ...:      95            90            97           94     

Tennessee ......:      92            89            93           85     

Wisconsin ......:      91            88            93           89     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:      93            92            96           92      

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Soybeans Setting Pods - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     : August 12,  :  August 5,  : August 12,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Arkansas .......:     91            91             95           83     

Illinois .......:     81            84             90           76     

Indiana ........:     76            77             85           76     

Iowa ...........:     80            81             89           76     

Kansas .........:     64            63             74           54     

Kentucky .......:     59            53             67           55     

Louisiana ......:     99            99            100           94     

Michigan .......:     74            54             69           73     

Minnesota ......:     82            81             92           79     

Mississippi ....:     91            90             93           84     

Missouri .......:     61            58             66           48     

Nebraska .......:     76            69             79           76     

North Carolina .:     57            44             54           49     

North Dakota ...:     75            84             89           79     

Ohio ...........:     71      &nb

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