USDA WASDE Worksheet and Weather Outlooks - Thursday, 09 August 2018

Update for August 9th, 2018

The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand WASDE report tomorrow. This will be the first crop report with the new release procedure which means news services will now have access to the crop report data in the same way the general public does, from the USDA website. Previously the news services were given the data just prior to the 11:00 a.m. CST release time. There is some concern that this added traffic on the USDA website may cause the website to crash.

The August report is a significant one because it gives us the first yield estimates that include USDA staff field surveys. Historically this report moves corn an average of + or - 10 cents and soybeans an average of + or - 20 cents on the report release day.

U.S. Production

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn Yield

???

176.2

171.0 - 180.2

174.0

Corn Production

???

14.411

14.150 - 14.740

14.230

Soybean Yield

???

49.6

48.0 - 51.5

48.5

Soybean Production

???

4.407

4.280 - 4.576

4.310

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

All Wheat

???

1.850

1.700 - 1.885

1.881

All Winter

???

1.180

1.050 - 1.201

1.193

Hard Red Winter

???

0.656

0.635 - 0.665

0.657

Soft Red Winter

???

0.302

0.290 - 0.313

0.303

White Winter

???

0.230

0.210 - 0.240

0.232

Other Spring

???

0.601

0.633 - 0.570

0.614

Durum

???

0.074

0.069 - 0.078

0.075

U.S. Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

2.021

1.900 - 2.137

2.027

Soybeans

???

0.460

0.437 - 0.480

0.465

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

1.636

1.457 - 1.812

1.552

Soybeans

???

0.638

0.565 - 0.726

0.580

Wheat

???

0.961

0.850 - 1.018

0.985

World Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

190.81

189.00 - 192.62

191.73

Soybeans

???

95.53

92.00 - 97.00

96.02

Wheat

???

273.12

271.00 - 274.00

273.50

World Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

Aug #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

152.59

148.00 - 158.23

151.96

Soybeans

???

99.33

94.00 - 102.20

98.27

Wheat

???

256.42

250.00 - 259.90

260.88

 

Like any growing season it’s all about location, location, location and this one is no different.  Some producers are looking to potentially harvest their best crop ever while many others face a much different yield outlook.  This week’s USDA Crop Condition Report reduced the Good to Excellent rating for corn from 72% to 71%.  57% of the U.S. corn crop is currently in the dough stage vs the 5 year average of 37% and 12% of the corn crop has entered the dented stage vs the 5 year average of 6%. According to this data there is no question that the crop is running ahead of the normal pace.  Some of the notable states showing improvements or deterioration in crop conditions over the past week:

  • North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas all down -5% from last week.
  • Iowa and Tennessee both down -3% from a week ago.
  • Minnesota and Kentucky both saw -2% declines from last week.
  • Nebraska was down -1% from a week ago.
  • Illinois, Kansas and Michigan all improved +1% from the previous week.
  • Indiana saw a +2% jump.
  • Ohio and North Carolina both climbed by +5%.

Ethanol exports are expected to smash records according to government RFA data released August 3rd that shows exports through June were up 33% from the first half of 2017 and are on track to break last year’s record of 1.38 million gallons.  The leading customer for U.S. ethanol is Brazil, importing 345.9 million gallons or about 37% of all exports.  Our second biggest importer is Canada importing 159.5 million gallons in just the first 6 months of 2018.  That is an 8% increase from a year ago.

Bloomberg reports that for the first time in 3 weeks a ship with U.S. soybeans has set sail for China.  According to data released Monday, a bulk carrier departed from the Gavilon Group LLC’s Kalama, WA export terminal on July 29th for Shanghai with U.S. soybeans according to a report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. There is also talk that because the Chinese have imported larger amounts of Argentine soybean than usual, Argentine crushers may be looking to source more of their soybean needs  from the U.S. For quite some time now soybeans have not had the best demand outlook but that may be slowly changing. Unfortunately NOV soybeans tend to see a deterioration in price from now through early October which is bad timing for the soybean market that has been searching for some positive news and is finally seeing an uptick in demand.

The USDA lowered the soybean crop condition Good to Excellent rating this week by 3 percentage points from 70% to 67%. This past week 92% of the nation’s soybeans were blooming vs the 5 year average of 86%,  75% of the soybeans were setting pods vs the 5 year average of 58%.  Some of the notable states showing improvements or deteriorations this past week:

  • North Dakota down -9% from the previous week.
  • Missouri fell -6%.
  • South Dakota saw a -4% decrease.
  • Iowa and Tennessee fell -3% from a week ago.
  • Minnesota and Nebraska both saw a -1% fall.
  • Indiana and Wisconsin both improved by +1%.
  • Ohio jumped by +7% from the previous week.

Ocean temperatures are remaining warm off the East Coast of the U.S. but so far the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet. The same is not true for the Pacific, which has seen an active hurricane season.  WeatherTrends 360 says that a weak El Niño, Modoki is forming due to the cooler than average ocean temps in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The important detail for us is that these weak, central based El Niño’s make for active Pacific hurricane seasons but also allow northern moving typhoons to send large cold air masses into the U.S. during the fall season.

 

The forecast from the National Weather Service for August 11th through the 15th looks for hotter and a bit drier than average conditions to persist in the Midwest as well as through the Northern and Central Plains through mid-month. 

 

 

The two maps shown below are the GFS on the left and the Euro model on the right. Both of these models are in agreement that the drier pattern will persist through late August for the Plains and the western Corn Belt regions.

 

 

CROP CONDITIONS

Corn Silking - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

                 :            Week ending            :          

                 :-----------------------------------:          

      State      : August 5, : July 29,  : August 5, : 2013-2017

                 :   2017    :   2018    :   2018    :  Average 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

                 :                    percent                   

                 :                                               

Colorado ........:    84           73          83         81    

Illinois ........:    96          100         100         97    

Indiana .........:    93           93          97         93    

Iowa ............:    94           96          98         91    

Kansas ..........:    89           92          96         92    

Kentucky ........:    93           91          94         91    

Michigan ........:    84           68          81         87    

Minnesota .......:    91           92          97         91    

Missouri ........:    99          100         100         96    

Nebraska ........:    96           91          95         96    

North Carolina ..:    99           97          99         98    

North Dakota ....:    82           86          95         82    

Ohio ............:    88           88          94         88    

Pennsylvania ....:    80           67          85         86    

South Dakota ....:    90           92          96         90    

Tennessee .......:    99           96          98         98    

Texas ...........:    98           89          92         97    

Wisconsin .......:    77           76          87         79    

                 :                                              

18 States .......:    92           91          96         92    

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Corn Dough - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     :  August 5,  :  July 29,   :  August 5,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                       

Colorado .......:      6             9            23             9     

Illinois .......:     54            64            81            51     

Indiana ........:     42            34            58            35     

Iowa ...........:     39            31            55            35     

Kansas .........:     48            49            65            48     

Kentucky .......:     51            45            58            45     

Michigan .......:     15             9            22            17     

Minnesota ......:     33            23            45            29     

Missouri .......:     67            73            84            62     

Nebraska .......:     37            38            57            35     

North Carolina .:     91            77            87            88     

North Dakota ...:     18            11            32            11     

Ohio ...........:     33            26            48            30     

Pennsylvania ...:     12             9            32            25     

South Dakota ...:     29            34            53            27     

Tennessee ......:     81            78            88            79     

Texas ..........:     65            71            86            77     

Wisconsin ......:     15             8            28            15     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:     39            38            57            37     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Corn Dented - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     :  August 5,  :  July 29,   :  August 5,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                       

                :                                                      

Colorado .......:      -            NA             -             -     

Illinois .......:      8             6            21             6     

Indiana ........:      3            NA             3             3     

Iowa ...........:      1             1             8             2     

Kansas .........:      9            11            23             7     

Kentucky .......:     29            16            32            22     

Michigan .......:      -            NA             -             -     

Minnesota ......:      -            NA             4             -     

Missouri .......:     23            12            35            17     

Nebraska .......:      3             2             6             3     

North Carolina .:     67            38            55            63     

North Dakota ...:      -            NA             -             -     

Ohio ...........:      1            NA             3             1     

Pennsylvania ...:      -            NA             1             2     

South Dakota ...:      1             2             4             1     

Tennessee ......:     28            NA            24            27     

Texas ..........:     58            60            70            61     

Wisconsin ......:      -            NA             -             -     

                :                                                      

18 States ......:      6            NA            12             6     

------------------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                                     

 

Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending August 5, 2018

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

      State     : Very poor :   Poor    :   Fair    :   Good    : Excellent

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                          percent                         

                :                                                           

Colorado .......:     6           5          18          66           5    

Illinois .......:     1           3          15          52          29    

Indiana ........:     2           6          21          52          19    

Iowa ...........:     2           5          18          53          22    

Kansas .........:     8          15          29          41           7    

Kentucky .......:     1           4          23          59          13    

Michigan .......:     6          16          29          43           6    

Minnesota ......:     2           5          16          51          26    

Missouri .......:    20          24          30          22           4    

Nebraska .......:     1           3          11          56          29    

North Carolina .:     6          24          36          32           2    

North Dakota ...:     -           2          13          63          22    

Ohio ...........:     1           4          19          55          21    

Pennsylvania ...:     1           5          20          54          20    

South Dakota ...:     2           5          23          54          16    

Tennessee ......:     3           6          20          50          21    

Texas ..........:    12          20          37          26           5    

Wisconsin ......:     1           4          14          47          34    

                :                                                          

18 States ......:     3           7          19          50          21    

                :                                                          

Previous week ..:     3           6          19          50          22    

Previous year ..:     4           9          27          47          13    

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                                        

 

Soybeans Blooming - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :               Week ending               :            

                :-----------------------------------------:            

      State     :  August 5,  :  July 29,   :  August 5,  :  2013-2017 

                :    2017     :    2018     :    2018     :   Average  

------------------------------------------------------------------------

                :                        percent                        

                :                                                      

Arkansas .......:      97           97             99           91     

Illinois .......:      93           92             95           88     

Indiana ........:      89           85             91           88     

Iowa ...........:      88           90             94           89     

Kansas .........:      83           83             89           75     

Kentucky .......:      70           64             76           66     

Louisiana ......:     100           99            100           97     

Michigan .......:      87           74             84           88     

Minnesota ......:      94           88             95           91     

Mississippi ....:      95           94             96           91     

Missouri .......:      78           78             86           68     

Nebraska .......:      93           87             93           92     

North Carolina .:      75           57             70           64     

North Dakota ...:      88           95             97           92     

Ohio ...........:      82           86             90           86     

South Dakota ...:      90           82             90           90    &nb

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