WASDE Update and Weekend Heat - Friday, 15 June 2018

Update for June 15th, 2018

The June WASDE report from the USDA was released on Tuesday.  Some of the important numbers to consider:

  • Estimated U.S. corn yield was left unchanged at 174.0 bushels per acres.
  • Exports for old-crop corn supplies were increased by +75 million bushels.
  • New crop corn used for ethanol was raised by +50 million bushels which off-sets the -50 million bushel loss in food, seed and industrial purposes.
  • New crop corn used for Feed and Residual was reduced by -25 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks for new crop corn was lowered by -105 million bushels from 1.682 to 1.577 billion bushels.
  • Ending stocks for old crop corn was reduced by -80 million bushels from 2.182 to 2.102 billion bushels.
  • Argentine corn production was left at 33 MMT
  • Brazil corn production was also lowered from 87 MMT to 85 MMT.
  • Corn production from Russia is reduced based on government data showing less acres planted than previously expected.
  • U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged at 48 bushels per acres.
  • Old crop soybeans used for crush was increased by +25 million bushels, new crop used for crush were also raised by +5 million bushels to 2.0 billion.
  • Soybean exports were left unchanged.
  • Soybean ending stocks for new crop was reduced by -30 million bushels from 415 to 385 million bushels. Old crop supplies were lowered by -25 million bushels from 530 down to 503 million bushels.
  • Argentine soybean production was lowered from 39 to 37 MMT.
  • Brazil soybean production was increased again from 117 to 119 MMT. This also raises estimated soybean exports for the country for both 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years.
  • The average U.S. farm price was left unchanged within a range of $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel.

Source: USDA WASDE

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.102

2.166

2.132 - 2.192

2.182

Soybean

0.505

0.522

0.473 - 0.550

0.530

Wheat

1.080

1.079

1.045 - 1.100

1.070

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

1.577

1.663

1.495 - 1.790

1.682

Soybeans

0.385

0.417

0.395 - 0.480

0.415

Wheat

0.946

0.958

0.820 - 0.994

0.955

World Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

192.7

193.39

190.0 - 195.1

194.85

Soybeans

92.5

91.35

88.3 - 93.1

92.16

Wheat

272.4

269.99

267.0 - 271.0

270.46

World Ending Stocks 2018/19

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

154.69

157.56

150.67 - 161.0

159.15

Soybeans

87.02

86.74

83.5 - 92.1

86.7

Wheat

266.16

263.0

260.0 - 265.8

264.33

U.S. Wheat Production

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Hard Red Winter

0.650

0.645

0.608 - 0.670

0.647

Soft Red Winter

0.316

0.318

0.310 - 0.325

0.315

White Winter

0.232

0.228

0.202 - 0.242

0.229

All Wheat

1.827

1.822

1.787 - 1.870

1.821

All Winter

1.198

1.190

1.159 - 1.221

1.192

South American Production

 

 

June #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Argentina Corn

33.0

32.53

31.0 - 33.0

33.0

Argentina Soybeans

37.0

37.89

36.0 - 39.0

39.0

Brazil Corn

85.0

84.47

78.39 - 87.00

87.00

Brazil Soybeans

119.0

117.43

116.5 - 119.0

117.0

 

 

 

The next USDA crop report will be announced on Friday, June 29th.  This report, The Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Report is always highly anticipated. Each year a well-respected marketing group conducts a survey among their subscribers to get an idea of what producers have actually planted ahead of the official government report at the end of the month and then shares the results. (Survey responses are from over 2,000 producers)

This season the results of the survey have led the marketing group to estimate U.S. producers have planted 87.786 million of acres of corn which is -240,000 lower than the USDA March estimate of 88.026 million. States with the largest reduction in corn acres were:

Nebraska -70,000

Iowa -50,000

Minnesota & Wisconsin both -40,000

There were only 2 states that reported more corn acres than expected:

Kansas +30,000

Indiana +10,000

The states that indicated the highest percentage of Prevent Plant claims were:

South Dakota 33%

North Dakota 22%

Wisconsin 20%

The response from producers indicated a total of 89.142 million acres of soybeans were planted this season with is 160,000 acres higher than the March USDA estimate of 88.982 million. States with the largest increases in soybean acres were:

Minnesota +140,000

Iowa +140,000

North Dakota +70,000

It is important to note that most of these acres were originally intended to be planted to corn this season.

States reporting a reduction in soybean acres:

South Dakota -80,000

Kansas -70,000

Missouri -40,000

Illinois -20,000

Michigan -20,000

Ohio -10,000

 

Weather has been cooperative across most of the Corn Belt with warm temps helping with the rapid crop development.  There are a few areas across the country that have seen persistent dryness but those areas are becoming less widespread in recent days.  On June 10th (prior to a significant rainfall) 77% of the topsoil moisture in Texas was rated very short along with Oklahoma 60%, 49% in Colorado and 48% in Kansas. There are some areas of dryness being watched in Missouri, Illinois and portions of the Delta.  The chart shown next illustrates the percentage of corn that is located in regions of drought shown by state.

 

http://www.vantrumpreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/AgInDroughtCornREV580.jpg

The map shown below shows the expected overnight temps for this Sunday.  It is possible that the U.S. will see 26 record high minimums set this weekend.  This means that the lowest temperatures recorded overnight will reach to record high levels across the Midwest. High minimum temps are not good for developing corn and this trend becomes even more important as we move into July when corn

 

 

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