Pre-Report Worksheet and Market Headlines - Monday, 11 June 2018

Update for June 11th, 2018

The USDA is set to announce the June WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. CT.  Traders expect to see a decrease in old and new U.S. crop carryout, especially in corn.  Once the data is released the trade will be quick to turn attention back to current production. Below is a worksheet showing what the trade is estimating and how that compares to the May numbers.

 

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (billion bu.)

 

USDA

June

2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May

2018

Corn

  

1.663

1.495-1.790

1.682

A

   

0.417

0.395-0.480

0.415

Wheat

   

0.958

0.820-0.994

0.955

 

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA

June

2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May

2018

Corn

 

193.39

190.0-195.1

194.85

Soybeans

 

91.35

88.3-93.1

92.16

Wheat

 

269.99

267.0-271.0

270.46

 

2018-19 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA

June

2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May

2018

Corn

 

157.56

150.67-161.00

159.15

Soybeans

 

86.74

83.50-92.10

86.70

Wheat

 

263.00

260.00-265.80

264.33

 

2018-19 Wheat Production (billion bu.)

 

USDA

June 2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May 2018

All Winter

 

1.190

1.159-1.221

1.192

HRW

 

0.645

0.608-0.670

0.647

SRW

 

0.318

0.310-0.325

0.315

White

 

0.228

0.202-0.242

0.229

All Wheat

 

1.822

1.787-1.870

1.821

 

2017-18 USDA South American Production (million tons)

 

USDA

June

2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May

2018

ARG Corn

 

32.53

31.0-33.0

33.0

ARG Soy

 

37.89

36.0-39.0

39.0

BRZ Corn

 

84.47

78.4-87.0

87.0

BRZ Soy

 

117.43

117.0-119.0

117.0

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Reuters

 

 

USDA

June

2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

May

2018

Corn

   

2.166

2.132-2.192

2.182

Soybeans

  

0.522

0.473-0.550

0.530

Wheat

  

1.079

1.045-1.100

1.070

 

 

Other than weather and report positioning there is very little additional news for the market to work with today.  Here are a few of the headlines to watch:

  • U.S. and global stocks are expected to be lowered tomorrow.
  • Chinese will begin soybean auctions this week.
  • Chinese tariffs are scheduled to begin this Friday.
  • Funds sold off more long positions last week than earlier thought.  The Funds are now long 60,000 corn, 36,000 soybean and 28,000 wheat contracts.
  • U.S. corn exports remain strong.
  • Demand for U.S. soybeans is rapidly diminishing.
  • Global trade disputes appear to be escalating.

The Senate Ag Committee is scheduled to discuss the Farm Bill this week. It is expected that the “bipartisan” draft bill will do better than the earlier version that was rejected by the House. The 1,000 page Senate farm bill was jointly released Friday by Republican Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas and Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. If an immigration agreement can be reached there is good reason to believe that Senates bipartisan version may make it through the House.

 

Much of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley saw widespread rainfall over the weekend with most totals ranging from around ½ inch to 3 inches.

 

The 6 to 10 day outlook from The National Weather Service shows a hotter and wetter-than-normal trend.

 

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