Planting Progress, China Trade Truce and Weather Forecasts - Friday, 25 May 2018

Update for May 25th, 2018

The USDA reported this week that 81% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted which is right on the mark with the 5 year average.  States that are furthest behind their normal pace are:

  • Pennsylvania -29%
  • South Dakota -15%
  • Michigan -13%
  • Wisconsin -10%
  • Minnesota -7%
  • North Dakota -5%
  • Colorado -4%
  • Iowa -2%

States that are running furthest ahead of normal:

  • Indiana +17%
  • Illinois and Missouri are both +9%
  • Ohio +5%

The corn crop is reported to be 50% emerged which is +3% ahead of normal for this point in the season.  With the clock running out for unplanted corn acres in states like Minnesota and the Dakota’s there is a lot of discussion surrounding the issue of the potential of less corn acres planted in the U.S. than originally thought. As of last Sunday evening the northern tier states made up the majority of unplanted corn acres.  There were nearly 17 million corn acres left to plant at that time with the states of SD, IA, MN, WI, ND and MI accounting for over 9.5 million of those unplanted acres. Next week the USDA should also begin including the overall crop conditions in the weekly report. The map below shows the final corn planting dates for Federal Crop Insurance coverage.

 

Soybean prices have been enjoying some positive news this week. Some of those headlines are the widespread truckers strike in Brazil, quality issues with the Argentine crop, demand is strong with the NOPA crush report up 16% over a year ago and talk of U.S. and Chinese trade “truce”.  Of course the slow planting progress in some regions has sparked some talk of more soybean acres than originally expected here in the U.S. and a record crop in Brazil are both adding some uncertainty into the soybean market. The USDA reported this week that 56% of the U.S. soybean crop has been planted vs 35% a year ago and the 5 year average of 44%. As of Sunday evening there were around 40 million soybean acres left to be planted with SD, IA, and MN each reporting over 4 million acres each.  Some of the states that are running the furthest behind:

  • South Dakota -20%
  • Minnesota -8%
  • North Dakota -7%
  • Wisconsin -2%

States running the farthest ahead of normal pace:

  • Illinois +39%
  • Indiana +35%
  • Missouri +30%
  • Nebraska +17%
  • Iowa and North Carolina +7%

The USDA report also showed that 26% of the U.S. soybean crop has emerged which is +11% higher than the 5 year average of 15%. The map shown below notes the Final Soybean Planting Dates for Federal Crop Insurance.

Monday, President Trump sent a message through Twitter announcing that China is set to “Buy Massive Amounts of U.S. Farm Products”.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced over the weekend that the U.S. had secured an agreement on a “trade framework” with China.  The U.S. has agreed to stop the $150 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods as a result of the deal and in return the Chinese will not place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and other products and is encouraging companies within China to buy American goods including crude oil, grains and soybeans. Secretary Mnuchin believes that this may increase U.S. agriculture exports to China by 35-40% this year alone!

 

The U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is heading with a delegation to Beijing next week to work through a possible trade deal.  Agriculture will be at the top of items the group will hope to work through.

Agronomist Dr. Michael Cordonnier sees the recent rainfall in Brazil to be of no benefit to the Safrinha corn crop.  The crop has been suffering through an ongoing dry weather pattern up until this past weekend when rain arrived along with damaging winds which left entire cornfields flat and extremely cold temps which further stressed the crop and slowed development. Dr. Cordonnier stated, “Farmers in southern Brazil who plant Safrinha corn worry about two things-an early onset of the dry season and the potential for cold weather/frost before the corn is mature.  Unfortunately, this year they are experiencing both.”

In the U.S. forecasts for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend are calling for warm and mainly dry conditions for a majority of the Corn Belt.  Temps are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90’s this weekend and into next week as well.  The southeastern portion of the U.S. is watching a tropical low that is moving through the Gulf and is expected to bring heavy rain to that area but forecasters expect the heaviest rainfall amounts will remain east of key growing regions of the Delta.

The outlook for Memorial Day turns wetter for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where afternoon showers are expected periodically through the middle of the week.


 

© 2015 Ag Performance | All Rights Reserved.

Home | About Us | Products | News | Contact Us |