USDA Report Update & Forecast Outlook - Thursday, 10 May 2018

Update for May 10th, 2018

The USDA reported Monday that the planting progress in the U.S. is mostly normal.  Corn planting is running less than a week behind the normal pace and soybean planting is actually ahead of normal.

The USDA released their WASDE reports which shows us the updated production and supply and demand estimates.  This report also gives us the 1st official estimate of expected carry-out for the 2018-19 crop year. The USDA reduced the World Grain Carryout by nearly 20%!

Here is the worksheet for today’s WASDE report.

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Yield (bu./acre)

 

USDA

May

2018-19

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

Ag Forum

2018-19

Corn

174.0

174.1

172.0-177.4

174.0

Soybeans

48.5

48.8

47.8-50.5

48.5

 

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Production (billion bu.)

 

USDA

May

2018-19

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

Ag Forum

2018-19

Corn

14.040

14.091

13.921-14.360

14.390

Soybeans

 4.280

4.324

4.110-4.850

4.320

 

 

2017 U.S. Wheat Production (billion bu.)

 

USDA
May
2018

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

2017

All Wheat

 1.821

1.774

1.612-1.860

1.741

Winter

 1.192

1.183

1.062-1.304

1.269

HRWW

 0.647

0.654

0.550-0.797

0.750

SRWW

 0.315

0.307

0.218-0.330

0.292

White

 0.229

0.229

0.201-0.260

0.227

 

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (billion bu.)

 

USDA

May

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

April

2017-18

Corn

2.182

2.178

2.150-2.207

2.182

Soybeans

0.530

0.541

0.495-0.575

0.550

Wheat

1.070

1.065

0.941-1.090

1.064

 

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (billion bu.)

 

USDA

May

2018-19

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

Ag Forum

2018-19

Corn

 1.682

1.628

1.467-1.907

2.272

Soybeans

 0.415

0.535

0.400-0.715

0.460

Wheat

 0.955

0.930

0.780-1.075

0.931

 

 

2017-18 South American Production (million tons)

 

USDA

May
2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

April

2017-18

ARG Corn

33.00

32.27

31.00-33.00

33.00

ARG Soy

39.00

38.69

37.00-40.00

40.00

BRZ Corn

87.00

88.86

83.90-92.00

92.00

BRZ Soy

117.00

116.24

114.90-119.00

115.00

 

 

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA

May

2017-18

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

April

2017-18

Corn

194.85

195.18

192.17-198.00

197.78

Soybeans

92.16

89.90

88.50-91.00

90.80

Wheat

270.46

271.13

268.50-273.40

271.22

 

 

2018-19 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA

May

2018-19

Average Trade Est.

Range of

Trade Est.

USDA

April

2018-19

Corn

 159.15

182.75

148.73-193.80

N/A

Soybeans

 86.70

90.52

75.50-97.00

N/A

Wheat

 264.33

269.18

260.00-278.70

N/A

 

 

 

Reuters reported that the Mexican Economic Minister has said that Mexico wants to come to a “fully renegotiated NAFTA instead of striking a preliminary deal in principle on a few issues”.  There are several controversial topics that are still being discussed but high level talks are continuing and an agreement is possible within the next couple of weeks. Some of the other important headlines for this week:

  • Brazil soybeans to China are $0.40/bushel higher than those from the U.S.
  • Demand for corn on Chinese auction is declining
  • Movement of grain on U.S. rivers is expected to be back to normal by next week.
  • EU corn imports are up 40% for this year
  • China is predicting they will import less soybeans in 2018/19
  • Soybean imports to China are the smallest in 4 years
  • Excess rainfall in Argentina is causing quality issues. 
  • Weather forecasts for the second half of May have turned wetter
  • Funds are long 176,000 corn and 164,000 soybean contracts

 

The Corn Belt has received several weather systems which have delivered an abundance of rainfall that has slowed planting in a large portion of the upper Midwest. In contrast, dry conditions are found in areas of the southwestern Corn Belt, in some areas the topsoil moisture was rated as ¼ short to very short on May 6th.  (Missouri 27%, Nebraska 25%)  The map below shows the departure from normal for precipitation over the past 30 days.  A large portion of Missouri, southern Iowa and all of Illinois and Indiana received well-below average rainfall in April.  While many producers are waiting for the opportunity to plant their crops, the freshly planted corn in these areas is still waiting for its first drink. 

 

 

 

Extended outlooks for the 2nd half of May show a warmer pattern for much of the country.  Unfortunately, for farmers struggling to plant their crops, the long range forecast also shows precipitation running above average for the remainder of the month as well.

 

 

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