Planting Progress and Weather - Saturday, 05 May 2018

Update for May 4th, 2018

 

Risk premium due to fewer U.S. acres and weather delays along with strong demand continue to add value to U.S. grains.  Argentina has seen significant corn production issues, to begin with the country saw hot temps with very dry conditions and now significant flooding.  Brazil is also experiencing weather issues in key growing regions which is also raising concerns in the market. On the other side of the issue though we are reminded of the large supply on-hand here in the U.S., higher than expected Russian exports, NAFTA uncertainty and the ongoing trade negotiations with China.

The USDA weekly crop progress report on Monday showed that the U.S. corn crop is 17% planted vs 32% a year ago, the 5 year average is 27% by this date and 3% emerged.  Soybeans are 5% planted which is right on with the 5 year average but 4% behind last year’s pace of 9%.                                      

 

 

 

 

Corn Planted - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:            Week ending            :          

:-----------------------------------:         

State      : April 29, : April 22, : April 29, : 2013-2017

:    2017   :   2018    :   2018    :  Average 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:                    percent                   

:                                              

Colorado.......:    15           2           7          15    

Illinois............:    59           4          32          40    

Indiana..........:    41           1           8           18    

Iowa..............:    25           -           17          27    

Kansas..........:    36          15         27         35    

Kentucky........:    40          10        15         35    

Michigan........:     4             -          3           6    

Minnesota......:    11           -           -           26    

Missouri.........:    64         16         52          51    

Nebraska.......:    32           2         17          24    

North Carolina:  77          48          63          73    

North Dakota.:     3            -            -            9    

Ohio...............:    37           -           1          15    

Pennsylvania.:     9           -            1           12    

South Dakota:     6           -             -           13    

Tennessee....:    63          30          36          55    

Texas............:    71          65          70          66    

Wisconsin.....:     4           -              3            9    

:                                              

18 States......:    32           5          17          27    

-----------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                             

 

Corn Emerged - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2017 corn acreage]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:            Week ending            :          

:-----------------------------------:          

      State       : April 29, : April 22, : April 29, : 2013-2017

:   2017    :   2018    :   2018    :  Average 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:                    percent                   

:                                              

Colorado ......:     -          (NA)           -            -    

Illinois...........:    18         (NA)          -          10    

Indiana..........:     9         (NA)          -           3    

Iowa..............:     1         (NA)          -           1    

Kansas..........:    11         (NA)        6          14    

Kentucky.......:    22        (NA)         3          13    

Michigan........:     -         (NA)          -           -    

Minnesota .....:     -         (NA)          -           1    

Missouri ........:    28          1            6           22    

Nebraska ......:    3         (NA)          -           3    

North Carolina:    48        11          36        44    

North Dakota..:     -         (NA)          -           -    

Ohio................:     4        (NA)         -           1    

Pennsylvania..:     2         (NA)        -           1    

South Dakota..:     -         (NA)        -           -    

Tennessee......:    37           1          8          24    

Texas .............:    63          47         50         56    

Wisconsin ......:     -         (NA)          -           -    

:                                              

18 States ......:     8         (NA)          3           6    

-----------------------------------------------------------------

-    Represents zero.                                           

(NA) Not available.     

   

Soybeans Planted - Selected States

[These 18 States planted 96% of the 2017 soybean acreage]

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:            Week ending            :          

:-----------------------------------:          

      State       : April 29, : April 22, : April 29, : 2013-2017

:   2017    :   2018    :   2018    :  Average 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

:                    percent                   

:                                              

Arkansas.......:    44          21          26          24    

Illinois............:    12           -           7           5    

Indiana..........:    14           -           3           4    

Iowa..............:     2           -           3           3    

Kansas..........:     2           -           2           2    

Kentucky.......:     5           -            1           3    

Louisiana......:    65          26        40          42    

Michigan.......:     1            -            -           1    

Minnesota.....:     -             -           -           4    

Mississippi....:    68         30         35          38    

Missouri........:     5           1           5           3    

Nebraska......:     7           1           6           4    

North Carolina:   4           1           4           2    

North Dakota:      -           -           -           2    

Ohio..............:    12          -           1           4    

South Dakota:     2           -           -           1    

Tennessee....:     6           1           2           4    

Wisconsin.....:     -           -           1           1    

                     :                                               

18 States......:     9           2           5           5    

-----------------------------------------------------------------

-  Represents zero.                                            

Some of the important topics to watch in the days ahead:

  • Soybean and corn sales are near expected totals.
  • There are 300 to 400 million bushels of old-crop soybeans that have been purchased by Chinese buyers that still need to be shipped.
  • Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture that Argentina has purchased soybeans from the U.S. for the 3rd time this month. Sales of 120,000 metric tons have been purchased for the 2018/19 marketing year which begins on September 1st.
  • U.S. sorghum headed to China then diverted away was ultimately purchased by South Korea.
  • Ethanol production in the U.S. is up +2.3% from last year.
  • Ethanol stocks are down -5% for the year.
  • Estimates for U.S. wheat crop fall.
  • Agrimoney reports that for the first time in 6 years World Grain Stocks will fall to uncommonly tight levels according to the United Nations Food and Ag Organization. 
  • Negotiations regarding the trade dispute with China appear to not be going as well as previously hoped.
  • FC Stone lowers their corn estimate for Brazil production but raises soybeans. It’s important to note that soybeans in Brazil have an equivalency value of $17.00 per bushels, this will not only prevent acres from not being planted but also could entice more acres into production next season.
  • Funds are long 152,000 corn and 178,000 soybean contracts.

In his latest report Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Brazil corn production estimate by 1 million tons in response to the hot and dry weather and the forecast for these conditions to continue.  Cordonnier reported, “The weather in Brazil has definitely turned drier and the forecast looks generally dry as well.  This is a particular concern for southern Brazil where it has been getting drier in recent weeks.  The forecast had been calling for improved rain chances in southern Brazil for this week, but that is no longer the case. Now they are saying that it may not rain for another 7 days or longer in some areas.”

Forecasts here in the U.S. specifically for the weekend are looking for light rainfall of 0.25” or less across the Corn Belt and Plains.  This is good news following a week of excessive rainfall across this region.

 

 

The latest updated 6-10 day forecast from the National Weather Service shows drier than normal conditions are expected across the Midwest and Upper Plains with above normal precipitation in the Southern Plains.  Temps are expected to be above normal in the Plains and near to below normal for the Midwest.

 

Weather Trends 360 forecast maps below show this week on the top row and their expectations for next week, May 7-13th on the bottom row.  The National Weather Service and Weather Trends 360 outlooks appear quite similar.

The forecast shows the chance for rainfall again for the middle of next week for the heart of the Corn Belt.  An overall drier pattern is expected to begin in the 8-14 day outlooks.

 

 

 

 

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