USDA Report Worksheet and Yield Comparison by State - Thursday, 14 September 2017

The recent USDA WASDE report brought on more debate regarding yield estimates for corn and soybeans and total production numbers.  The USDA raised soybean yields on the reports of record pod weights a high corn production number was based on elevated yields in fringe states which they believe will off-set yield losses in other areas.  The agency also is questioning the usage numbers for residual and corn used for ethanol. Many traders are not paying close attention to these recent numbers many are focusing on final yield data.  When looking back at the September report from the past 2 years the corn and soybean yields increased from the September estimates to the final yield.  This yield gain was due to favorable weather during this phase of the growing season which aided in the yield increase the past 2 years.  This year though the high variability in the crop and late season conditions that have not been as favorable have most analysts convinced we will not see yields increase between the September report and the final yield numbers.

September 12, 2017 USDA WASDE report

U.S. Production 2017/18

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug.

Corn Production

14.184

14.003

13.754 - 14.295

14.153

Corn Yield

169.9

167.9

165.5 - 171.2

169.5

Soybean Production

4.431

4.322

4.179 - 4.435

4.381

Soybean Yield

49.9

48.7

47.1 - 50.0

49.4

U.S Grain Stocks 2016/17

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug.

Corn

2.350

2.352

2.270 - 2.415

2.370

Soybeans

0.345

0.361

0.310 - 0.390

0.370

U.S Grain Stocks 2017/18

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

2.335

2.125

1.898 - 2.447

2.273

Soybeans

0.475

0.439

0.325 - 0.540

0.475

Wheat

0.933

0.914

0.866 - 0.943

0.933

World Stocks 2016/17

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

227.0

227.9

225.1 - 229.1

228.6

Soybeans

96.0

96.7

95.5 - 97.3

97.0

World Stocks 2017/18

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

202.5

197.8

189.4 - 203.0

200.9

Soybeans

97.5

97.2

95.0 - 100.0

97.8

Wheat

263.1

264.3

258.0 - 268.0

264.7

The 2 hurricanes that hit the U.S. have obstructed the collection of solid farm data across much of the southeastern portion of the country.  The USDA said its latest monthly crop report, “doesn’t reflect damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma”. The agency expects to assess harvest across Texas and Louisiana as well as Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.  Crops that the agency plans to inspect include: cotton, soybeans, corn, rice, sorghum, sugar-cane and peanuts.  The Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue said Monday that hurricane Harvey may have caused up to $1 billion in losses to crop growers and livestock producers. USDA workers are now in the field determining damage from hurricane Irma, more should be know soon regarding losses from this storm.

Below is a list of yield estimates for corn for the current year in comparison to the final yield from a year ago:

  • Arkansas 182 vs. 171 last year 
  • Colorado 145 vs. 137 last year
  • Georgia 182 vs. 165 last year
  • Illinois 189 vs. 197 last year
  • Indiana 171 vs. 173 last year
  • Iowa 187 vs. 203 last year
  • Kansas 133 vs 142 last year
  • Kentucky 171 vs. 159 last year
  • Michigan 169 vs 157 last year
  • Minnesota 182 vs. 193 last year
  • Mississippi 185 vs. 166 last year 
  • Missouri 164 vs. 163 last year
  • Nebraska 181 vs. 183 last year
  • North Carolina 142 vs. 129 last year 
  • North Dakota 124 vs. 158 last year 
  • Ohio 173 vs. 159 last year
  • Pennsylvania 160 vs. 129 last year 
  • South Carolina 135 vs. 127 last year
  • South Dakota 145 vs. 161 last year
  • Tennessee 168 vs. 151 last year
  • Texas 140 vs. 148 last year 
  • Wisconsin 162 vs. 178 last year   

Below is a list of yield estimates for soybeans for the current year in comparison to the final yield from a year ago:

  • Arkansas 51 vs. 47 last year 
  • Georgia 44 vs. 30 last year
  • Illinois 58 vs. 59 last year
  • Indiana 56 vs. 57.5 last year
  • Iowa 57 vs. 60.5 last year
  • Kansas 43 vs 48 last year
  • Kentucky 52 vs. 50 last year
  • Michigan 48 vs 50.5 last year
  • Minnesota 47 vs. 52.5 last year
  • Mississippi 52 vs. 48 last year 
  • Missouri 49 vs. 49 last year
  • Nebraska 56 vs. 61 last year
  • North Carolina 38 vs. 35 last year 
  • North Dakota 35 vs. 41.5 last year 
  • Ohio 54 vs. 54.5 last year
  • Pennsylvania 50 vs. 44 last year 
  • South Carolina 36 vs. 31 last year
  • South Dakota 45 vs. 49.5 last year
  • Tennessee 48 vs. 45 last year
  • Texas 40 vs. 31 last year 
  • Wisconsin 48 vs. 55 last year 

According to Agrosouth the major growing regions in Brazil: Mato Grosso, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, are all delaying soybean planting due to a lack of rainfall.  Planting typically begins this week but dry conditions and a forecast that predicts scarce opportunities for rainfall for the next several days have delayed the start of the season.  Analysts say it’s much too soon to be alarmed but it is a situation to monitor over the coming weeks.

Farm Futures recently ran a story regarding farm incomes titled, “Has U.S. Farm Income Turned a Corner”. As we all are well aware, the agriculture industry is always at some degree of financial risk.  From 2009 to 2013 net cash farm incomes experienced a strong period of growth, only to see those profit margins retreat once again from 2014 through 2016.  The USDA offers projections each year for net farm income through their Farm Sector Income Forecast.  The outlook for 2017 calls for a net cash farm income of $100.4 billion, this is an $11.2 billion or 12.6% increase from 2016, net farm income is also increased by $1.9 billion or 3.1%.

While the hurricanes have captured the attention of the nation over the past few weeks a significant dryness has been developing over the past 60 days for the central and western crop regions.  The latest Drought Monitor shown below shows a large area of dryness through the central Midwest which has left parts of Iowa with rain deficits between 4 to 10 inches.  According to the latest data, stream flow and soil moisture are well below normal and satellite vegetation indicators are showing stress on vegetation.

 

Temps have heated up in the Midwest following a rather cool start to the month of September.  The map below shows the temperature variances from normal through next Wednesday.  As you can see from the map much of the Midwest will find temps running around 10 degrees above normal, concerns regarding an early September frost have now been alleviated.

CROP PROGRESS

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