Crop Condition Comparisons and A Taste of Fall Temps - Friday, 04 August 2017

The USDA once again lowered the overall percentage of the nation’s corn crop rated as Good to Excellent to 61%. In the U.S. the 4 largest corn producing states are known as the Big-Four, this year all 4 of these states have a lower crop condition rating than 1 year ago.  The Big Four, along with other states with notable differences in Good to Excellent ratings from a year ago are listed:

 

Big Four

  • Iowa currently sits at 65% GD/EX vs 83% last year
  • Illinois currently sits at 63% vs 83% last year
  • Minnesota currently sits at 81% vs 85% last year
  • Nebraska currently sits at 61% vs 77% last year

Other states

  • Indiana was increased this week by 2% to 49% this compares to the GD/EX category a year ago of 77%
  • South Dakota saw their rating increase by 1% to 29% vs 58% last year
  • Ohio also had a rating increase of 1% to 57% vs 54% last year
  • North Dakota had the rating decreased by 5% to 39% vs 79% last year
  • Kansas was lowered by 4% to 57% vs 67% last year

 

 

The cooler weather forecast along with the anticipation of widespread rainfall has many traders feeling more optimistic about the potential of a larger corn crop than earlier thought. There has been a lot of discussion and debate regarding the hot, dry weather in July and its potential effect on the corn yield. Some believe that the damage to the crop in July is not repairable and within the past couple of weeks the estimated corn yield fell in some in some evaluations to 161 to 162 bushels per acre. F.C. Stone reports that the overall average U.S. corn yield has not rebounded and estimates the final yield at 160.2 bushels per acre which still puts total bushels above +13 billion bushels.  Even with a decrease in the national yield the large supply of ending stocks makes the prospects of a corn rally above $4.10 per bushel less likely.

      

These photos were taken in SE Webster County, IA. Rotated field with good soils. Heat and excessively dry weather in July the culprit. Rain won't repair this damage.

The U.S. soybean crop conditions report for this week was raised to 59% Good to Excellent, this is the 2nd worst overall rating for this time of the year in the past 10 years.  2012 was the year with the lower rating when only 29% of the nation’s soybean crop was considered to be in the Good to Excellent category.  A few interesting points about the soybean crop in 2012:

2012 compared to 2017

  • Illinois had 9% of their soybean crop rated Good, 0% Excellent, this year 66% rated GD/EX
  • Kansas had 7% rated Good, 0% Excellent, this year 51% rated GD/EX
  • Indiana had 14% rated GD/EX, this year 51%
  • Iowa had 25% rated GD/EX, this year 60%
  • North Dakota had 59% GD/EX, this year 34%
  • South Dakota had 34% GD/EX, this year 28%

Keven Van Trump of the Van Trump Report also noted that in 2012 the lead month prices for soybeans were trading close to $17.50 per bushel. “My point is, conditions are clearly not as dire as they were back in 2012, and nobody is insinuating such, but for the current crop to be posting the second worst set of conditions in the past decade, one would think the market could find more stable footing and battle to stay around $10 per bushel, at least until the U.S. yield becomes more certain.”

 

According to the highly regarded European weather model the U.S. mid-section can expect a taste of fall into next week. (first map below)

NOAA has changed their original August outlook issued in July (shown on the left side below) to the CPC Outlook for August shown on the right side in the graphic below.  As you can see the original forecast, made just 11 days prior to the updated outlook, expected much warmer and drier conditions than the updated forecast shown on the right-hand side.

PLANTING PROGRESS

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