Breakdown of Crop Conditions - Wednesday, 12 July 2017

The USDA adjusted their weekly corn crop conditions report this week from 68% Good to Excellent a week ago down to 65%.  This compares to last year’s 76% GD/EX rating at this time. The crop maturity is also running behind last year when 30% of the nation’s crop was silking, this year only 19% is silking which is also well behind the 5-year average of 27%.  The importance of this is that it appears as though a large portion of the corn crop will be pollinating during extreme heat, temps in some areas are expected to reach triple digits! The USDA will release the July Supply and Demand report today, according to Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report, “Generally the USDA does not like to make a major yield adjustment in the July report, but with weather this extreme in some locations there’s a chance they could adjust production lower ahead of the August farmers survey’s.”  He also cautions producers to consider reducing risk at profitable levels and not to try to predict the high in any weather fueled market.  Van Trump’s report also broke down the numbers from this week’s crop conditions report, he found that states that are reporting conditions better than last year account for 9.35 million planted acres, 74.3 million planted acres are found in states with conditions that are worse than a year ago.

The states of North and South Dakota and Indiana all have conditions -26% to -30% worse than a year ago, the acres from these 3 states combine for about 16% of all of the corn acres planted in the U.S.  Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado all show conditions -17% lower than last year. Those states combine for around 10% of the nation’s planted corn acres. Illinois and Nebraska are both indicating a significant reduction in the corn condition this year and together these states account for 26% of the total corn production for the U.S.  The state of Iowa is also beginning to show a deterioration in conditions.  This is very significant, Iowa alone produced over 18% of the nation’s corn crop in 2016 which accounted for over 2 billion bushels.

One week ago the USDA had rated 64% of the nation’s soybean crop as Good to Excellent, this week that number fell to 62%.  The soybean crop maturity is running a bit ahead of average right now with 34% of the crop reported as blooming and 7% of the crop setting pods.  Similar to corn, soybeans in states reporting conditions better than last year account for about 15.9 million planted acres while states that are reporting conditions worse than a year ago account for 69.5 million planted acres. Kevin Van Trump reported that, “Several sources inside the trade believe, even though it’s still extremely early, and we won’t know until late-August or perhaps mid-September, there’s certainly a possibility that the U.S. yield could fall below 46 or perhaps even 45 bushels per acre.”

The states of Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin all have conditions that are considerably worse than a year ago. These states amount to roughly 20% of the total U.S. soybean production. Conditions are -22% to -35% worse than a year ago in the states of North and South Dakota and Indiana which combine to produce close to 20% of the nation’s total soybean crop.

Forecasts are continuing to show hot and dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days for the western and northwestern Plains as well as across the Midwest.  The hot and dry conditions have been working their way to the east and are expected to continue to expand further into the central and eastern portions of the Midwest as well in this 10 day outlook.  These extreme temps are likely to cover a large portion of the region during the critical period of pollination.



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