WASDE, Crop Progress and Weather - Wednesday, 10 May 2017

The newest Supply and Demand report from the USDA is shown below.  The agency is forecasting the corn yield this year at 170.7 bushels per acre, this compares with last year’s 174.6 bushel average.  Corn demand for seed, food and industrial uses is expected to rise +80 million bushels but exports are expected to fall by -350 million bushels due to an increase in exports out of Brazil and Argentina.  Corn used for feed and residual is also projected to fall by -75 million bushels from last year’s numbers.  The agency is forecasting the season-average price for corn at $3.00 - $3.80 per bushel which is mostly unchanged from earlier expectations.

The USDA is looking for a smaller 2017 soybean crop compared to last year’s record 52.1 per acre average despite the estimated 6 million acre increase in acres this year.  Demand for U.S. soybeans has been increased by +100 million bushels and the soybean crush number was also raised by +25 million bushels over the 2016/17 estimate.  The agency is looking for the U.S. season-average price range from $8.30 - $10.30 per bushel, compared to $9.55 per bushel in 2016/17.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

April 2017

Corn

2.295

2.326

2.269 - 2.500

2.320

Soybean

0.435

0.438

0.417 - 0.466

0.445

Wheat

1.159

1.162

1.145 - 1.200

1.159

U.S. Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

Corn

2.110

2.120

1.835 - 2.400

Soybean

0.480

0.555

0.420 - 0.759

Wheat

0.914

0.933

0.842 - 1.000

Global Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

April 2017

Corn

223.9

223.3

221.5 - 228.8

223.0

Soybean

90.1

87.5

86.1 - 89.0

87.4

Wheat

255.4

252.2

250.7 - 253.2

252.3

Global Ending Stocks 2017/18

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

Corn

195.3

209.7

190.7 - 225.0

Soybean

88.8

86.6

80.5 - 94.0

Wheat

258.3

246.1

238.0 - 257.0

U.S. Wheat Production 2017

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

April 2017

All Wheat

1.820

1.859

1.776 - 1.984

2.310

Winter

1.246

1.293

1.200 - 1.474

1.672

Hard Red Winter

0.737

0.769

0.686 - 0.915

1.082

Soft Red Winter

0.297

0.305

0.260 - 0.355

0.345

White

0.212

0.217

0.180 - 0.263

0.286

South American Production 2016/17

 

May #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

April 2017

Argentina Corn

40.0

38.5

37.0 - 39.0

38.5

Argentina Soybean

57.0

56.2

55.0 - 58.5

56.0

Brazil Corn

96.0

94.2

93.0 - 96.2

93.5

Brazil Soybean

111.6

111.3

110.5 - 113.0

111.0

 

Weather complications continue for large portions of the eastern Corn Belt.  If the rainy trend lasts for these areas into next week the optimal corn planting time-frame will end and there will need to be the decisions made by those producers on whether to move those acres to an alternative crop or preventive plant.  The USDA Planting Progress Report indicated that an additional +13% of the nation’s corn was planted last week bringing the total to 47% complete vs an average of 52% by this date.  More specifically:

  • Iowa planted 24% of their corn acres last week bringing the total to 52% completed.
  • Nebraska saw a big increase last week with 48% planted but still behind their average of 55%.
  • Minnesota is running behind average with just 35% planted compared to their average of 55%. The states of Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, North & South Dakota and Wisconsin are all also behind.
  • Illinois only managed to plant 2% of their acres last week but are still ahead of average with 65% completed.
  • Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Texas are all still ahead of their typical pace.

The USDA now has soybean planting running a bit behind average with only 14% planted at this time compared to the average of 17%.  As with the corn acres some states are running well ahead of normal while the majority of states are falling behind. 

  • Louisiana is 76% completed compared to their average of 55%.
  • Mississippi has 74% planted vs the average of 51%.
  • Indiana is 19% planted and Ohio is 16% which are both 2% ahead of normal rates.
  • Iowa sits at 9% planted vs 14% average.
  • Minnesota only has 4% of their soybean acres planted compared to their average of 24%.

 

 

The abundance of rainfall this spring has reduced the current percentage of the U.S. experiencing drought conditions to the lowest levels seen in the 17 year history of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report.  The latest report shows that just 6.1% of the country has any drought conditions at this time, this compares to the record high of 65.5% in September of 2012.

The 2-week forecast which runs from May 8-21st from Weather Trends 360 is shown below.  

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