USDA Report Worksheet & Large Supplies of Corn Still on the Farm - Tuesday, 04 April 2017

The March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports were announced last Friday.  The trade had estimated corn acres prior to the report at 90.9 million acres, the USDA announced it looks for 89.996 million corn acres. This compares with 94 million corn acres planted in 2016. The trade is likely going to watch the planting progress very closely and is already beginning to question what kind of adjustments the USDA makes over the next several months. Research published by Advance Trading shows though that 8 out of the past 10 years the corn acreage number has actually increased between the March and June reports and has increased each of the past 4 years. On the flip-side of corn acres the quarterly stocks number which was a bit higher than what had been expected.  Soybean acres for 2017 were higher than the trade had thought, the USDA expects 89.482 million acres while the trade was looking for around 88.2 million. This compares with the 2016 soybean acreage of 83.433 million the quarterly stocks number was also negative to the soybean market. Soybean acres have also had a tendency to increase and has done so 7 times between the March and June reports.

USDA March 31, 2017 Quarterly Stocks & Prospective Plantings Worksheets

March Quarterly Grain Stocks

 

March #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA March 1, 2016

USDA Dec. 1, 2016

Corn

8.616

8.534

8.205 - 8.900

7.822 

 12.384

Soybeans

1.735

1.684

1.627 - 1.885

1.531

2.895

Wheat

1.655

1.627 

1.450 - 1.721 

1.372

2.073 

March Prospective Planting

 

March #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA 2016

USDA 2017 Outlook Forum

Corn

89.996

90.969

90.0 - 92.50

94.004 

90.0

Soybeans

89.482

88.214

86.400 - 89.300

83.433

88.0

All Wheat

46.059

46.139

44.200 - 48.200

50.154

46.0

Winter Wheat

32.747

32.554

32.000 - 34.500

36.167

NA

Spring

11.308

11.358

9.900 - 12.200

11.605

NA

Durum

2.004

2.115

1.900 - 2.500

2.412

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Next Monday the weekly USDA Planting Progress reports will begin for the 2017 growing season. 

An important fact to remember as you are making your marketing decisions for old and new crop is where the current inventory is being stored and when it is likely to move.  As of March 1st, farmers were holding about 13% more corn on the farm than a year ago.  Off-farm inventories for soybeans are up 33%, a significant increase from a year ago.  Buyers may need to start bidding more aggressively for corn bushels to get more bushels moving to meet their needs before planting swings into full gear.  The slow grain movement could have extended consequences on the market if these inventories are not delivered until closer to harvest. Some buyers are already anticipating this and are keeping basis levels weaker than normal as a result.

Oil World has reported that soybean exports from Brazil have increased sharply in the past few weeks. This trend may be leveling off though as many farmers are holding onto their crop in hopes of higher prices so export supplies are beginning to come under pressure.  This has been brought on by low world market prices and a firm Real. Oil World predicts that the record soybean supply in Brazil and in the U.S. are likely to keep prices at low levels unless there is a weather issue in the U.S. this season.

Weather Trends 360 is telling the eastern ½ of the U.S. to expect freezing temps around the middle of April followed by a cold Easter weekend.  If temperature predictions hold true, the Northeastern portion of the country will see the 2nd coldest temps for mid-April in 26 years.  Our area looks to be below normal but hopefully no record lows are approached or surpassed.

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