USDA Report Numbers & Bird Flu Update - Thursday, 12 January 2017

The USDA released their January report earlier today with few if any surprises.  Corn saw planted and harvested acres reduced as well as the yield which calculated out to a reduction of the total production by -78 million bushels.  While this is positive news it does not change the fact that the U.S. still raised a record large 15.148 billion bushels of corn last season.  Soybeans also had planted and harvested acres reduced bringing the total production down by -54 million bushels.  Once again this is good news but does not erase the record setting yield of 4.307 billion bushels in 2016.

USDA's final production estimates for 2016 released January 12 @ 11:00 CST

U.S. Corn & Soybean Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

USDA 2015

Corn
Crop Total

15.148

15.226

15.196

14.999 - 15.320

13.601

Corn
Yield Avg.

174.6

175.3

175.1

172.3 - 176.5

168.40

Corn
Harvested Acres

86.7

86.836

86.747

85.514 - 88.231

80.70

Soybean
Crop Total

4.307

4.361

4.374

4.262 - 4.440

3.926

Soybean
Yield Avg.

52.1

52.5

52.7

51.6 - 53.5

48.0

Soybean Harvested Acres

82.7

83.047

83.013

82.500 - 83.400

81.80

December 1 Quarterly Stocks

 

Jan. #

Dec. 1 2015

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

12.384

11.238

12.300

11.600 - 12.700

Soybeans

2.895

2.715

2.935

2.745 - 3.119

Wheat

2.073

1.746

2.056

1.828 - 2.158

2016/17 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

2.355

2.403

2.385

2.206 - 2.800

Soybeans

0.420

0.480

0.468

0.407 - 0.510

Wheat

1.186

1.143

1.148

1.113 - 1.340

2016/17 World Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

221.0

222.25

221.94

218.00 - 225.00

Soybeans

82.3

82.85

82.58

79.60 - 84.20

Wheat

253.3

252.14

252.01

250.23 - 254.00

Winter Wheat Acreage

 

Jan. #

USDA 2016 Seeding’s

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Hard Red Winter

23.30

26.586

24.954

22.600 - 26.664

Soft Red Winter

5.68

6.020

5.662

4.800 - 6.600

White Winter

3.37

3.531

3.473

3.200 - 4.300

Total
Winter

32.38

36.137

34.139

31.700 - 36.381

South American Crop Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Argentina Corn

36.50

36.50

36.30

34.00 - 37.50

Argentina Soybeans

57.00

57.00

56.48

54.00 - 58.00

Brazil
Corn

86.5

86.50

87.24

86.50 - 91.10

Brazil Soybeans

104.00

102.00

102.40

101.70 - 104.50

 

The December Ag Economy Barometer showed an improvement for the second month in a row.  This increase has now brought the reading to its highest level since the collection of the data began in October, 2015.  The information was gathered from 400 agriculture producers from around the country and it indicates that the overall outlook of producers regarding both the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations have significantly improved from just this past October.  The largest gain was found in producer’s outlook for future economic conditions.

https://us-mg5.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?mid=2%5f0%5f0%5f1%5f1%5fAGlUimIAA1VyWHY44QOxUDDx6qU&m=YaDownload&pid=2&fid=Inbox&inline=1&appid=YahooMailBasic&uploadId=RmlndXJlLTEtRGVjZW1iZXItNzY4eDU3Ni5wbmc=

 

According to Soybean and Corn Advisor, Mato Grosso, Brazil is set to have their first corn-based ethanol facility begin operations in June.  The FS Bioenergia plant is expected to process approximately 560,000 tons of corn and produce 220 million liters of ethanol during the second half of 2017. Several more ethanol plants are planned for this center-west region of Brazil.  Producers in this area anxiously await this new alternative to the expensive option of transporting their grain to distant ports.

(Cartoon found in the Star Tribune and created by Steve Sack)

The Bird Flu is back in headlines again and it has been found in flocks and wild birds in many regions of the globe.  Recently a wild Mallard duck with the H5N2 virus was found in Montana, this is the first report of any sign of the disease in that state.  Europe continues to report of new outbreaks, the Bulgaria Ag Ministry has stated that at least 26 farms (almost double the number affected on December 30th) have suffered outbreaks, and as a result the country has issued a ban on poultry markets and fishing in lakes and wetlands where wild migrating birds are found. The Czech Republic has reported finding the disease in swans and 2 small poultry farms.  In addition Germany, France, Ireland and Israel also have reported outbreaks.  China has reported its 4th human death from bird flu and many new cases are being discovered inside their live bird markets.

The west coast has been pounded with round after round of heavy precipitation the moisture flow that has been hauling this endless stream of moisture stretches approximately 3,000 miles across the Pacific Ocean is known as the Pineapple Express.  The majority of the precipitation from this event has not been reaching us in the Midwest but a new system that is currently setting up is expected to bring an ice storm to a large section of the countries midsection.  The scenario that is developing is not uncommon for January, warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to flow above the below freezing air found over the Plains, Midwest and the Northeast.  There is a high probability that this system will cause heavy ice accumulations that could trigger falling trees and powerlines producing power outages that could last for several days as it impacts this area from Thursday through Sunday.

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