USDA Report and Polar Vortex Next Week - Friday, 09 December 2016

It’s difficult to believe but Christmas is right around the corner and next week will be the final full trading week of 2016!  Generally the trade will begin to thin during these last few weeks of the year which has been known to cause the market to become more unpredictable during these final trading weeks.

The December, USDA Supply and Demand report was announced today, typically this report does not significantly influence the market direction and offers few surprises and this year’s report continues that trend.  Today’s report echoes the November report for U.S. inventories but increases slightly the global supplies. The January USDA report, which will be out on January 12th, 2017, is much more heavily anticipated and has a reputation for producing large market moves.

2016/17 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Dec. #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Nov.

Corn

2.403

2.413

2.365 - 2.584

2.403

Soybeans

0.480

0.470

0.428 - 0.500

0.480

Wheat

1.143

1.139

1.030 - 1.187

1.143

2016/17 World Ending Stocks

 

Dec. #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Nov.

Corn

223.3

219.24

217.10 - 224.80

218.19

Soybeans

82.9

81.31

78.10 - 83.00

81.53

Wheat

252.1

248.03

220.00 - 252.60

249.23

2016/17 South American Crop Production

 

Corn

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Nov.

Brazil Corn

86.5

84.69

83.50 - 91.10

83.50

Brazil Soybeans

102.0

102.24

101.70 - 103.00

102.00

Argentina Corn

36.5

36.41

35.00 - 37.00

36.50

Argentina Soy

57.0

56.62

54.00 - 57.00

57.00

 

The coming months will be interesting to watch as the new president-elect and his cabinet take office.  It has been announced that President-elect Donald Trump has decided to nominate Scott Pruitt as EPA Chief.  Currently Pruitt serves as attorney general of the state of Oklahoma and has been a legal opponent of almost every major regulation and executive action from the current president Barak Obama.  Of particular importance to agriculture, Pruitt has “been a key figure in fighting the Clean Water Rule, also known as Waters of the United States (WOTUS).  States and companies challenging the water rule also succeeded in convincing a federal court to block its implementation while it is litigated.”

Do you remember the term Polar Vortex? If you don’t remember the infamous visit we received from the Polar Vortex on January, 2014, you will soon be reminded as the “upper level atmosphere configuration is very similar in scale and magnitude”.  The next 2 weeks are predicted to average -18 degrees less than last year in the North Central U.S. The bitter cold is expected to arrive in the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Sunday, our region by Monday or Tuesday and the northeastern states by Wednesday or Thursday.  Unfortunately cold temps (not to this extreme) are expected for much of the winter season and potentially lasting through April.

 

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