USDA Worksheet and More Warm Days Ahead - Thursday, 10 November 2016

The estimated corn yield was raised by +1.9 bushels per acre this week in the USDA Supply and Demand report.  This brings the average yield per acre in the U.S. to 175.3 bushels per acre and sets a new record for total production of 15.22 billion bushels.  This is a +12% increase from last year and an additional 168 million bushels from the estimate in October.

Soybeans are also finding an increase in production.  The November estimated average soybean yield for the U.S. has set a new high this year of 52.5 bushels per acre which breaks the previous record set last year of 48 bushels per acre. This is an increase of 92 million bushels from the estimate in October. This level of production amounts to a huge 4.36 billion bushels harvested from 83 million acres.

USDA Supply and Demand worksheet from November 9th, 2016

U.S. Crop Production

 

Nov. Est.

Avg. Guess

Trade Range

USDA  October

2015

Corn Production

15.226

15.0412

14.880 - 15.226

15.057

14.216

Yield

175.3

173.2

171.4 - 175.3

173.4

171.0

Harvested Acres

86.8

80.663

80.500 - 80.700

86.8

83.136

Soybean Production

4.361

4.314

4.256 - 4.386

4.269

3.927

Yield

52.5

52.0

51.3 - 52.8

51.4

47.5

Harvested Acres

83.0

82.379

82.200 - 82.430

83.0

82.591

2016/17 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Nov. Est.

Avg. Guess

Trade Range

USDA October

Corn

2.403

2.300

2.143 - 2.669

2.320

Soybeans

.480

0.420

0.381 - 0.467

0.395

Wheat

1.143

1.141

1.126 - 1.169

1.138

 

2016/17 World Ending Stocks

 

Nov. Est.

Avg. Guess

Trade Range

USDA October

Corn

218.19

216.94

214.00 - 224.90

216.81

Soybeans

81.53

76.98

72.50 - 79.14

77.36

Wheat

249.23

247.85

244.20 - 250.40

248.37

 

The country will soon have a new president in office.  There is a lot of speculation regarding what President Trump’s policies will look like once they are in place but until then we can only wonder.  Kevin Van Trump commented on this subject in his report this week and he has an interesting viewpoint for us to consider.  “He (Trump) has insinuated several times he plans on major infrastructure spending to help create jobs.  He also promised somewhat sizable tax-cuts and has said several times he is not afraid of creating a larger budget deficit.  Interestingly many believe this combination of punches could create a more inflationary type of environment, at least nearby, and perhaps spark some type of investor reallocation of funds, possibly with a portion of the money on the sideline flowing back to the commodity space…hence creating an unforeseen tailwind for the corn market.”

 

 

The United States has just had the third warmest month of October on record!  The two maps included below illustrate for you just how extreme the weather was last month.  Each state has a number ranking which indicates where in the spectrum of extreme conditions each state ended up.  On the first map which shows the temperature rankings a #1 would indicate the coldest October on record while a #122 would indicate the warmest on record.  The second map shows the precipitation rankings with a #1 indicating the driest on record and a #122 indicating the wettest on record.

 

 

The U.S. has been experiencing warmer than average temperatures this fall thanks to a persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure. The jet-stream is acting  similar to a pattern found during the summer when weather systems generally track well north of the border and with relatively weak intensity. The jet stream has been located in approximately the same position for the last several weeks and at this time there does not appear to be any pattern change in site until the later portion of November at the earliest.

Once a persistent pattern is in place it takes a rather sizable storm system to move it out.  This time of the year a late-season typhoon in the far western Pacific or an early-season strong winter storm from Asia that moves into Alaska or Canada is generally required for these patterns to dissolve.

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