Pre Report and Weather Updates - Friday, 30 September 2016

The USDA will announce the Quarterly Stocks today, the worksheet below shows the pre-report guestimates.

USDA's September 30, 2016 Quarterly Stocks Worksheet

Quarterly U.S. Grain Stocks

 

Sep #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

Sept. 2015

June 2016

Corn

???

1.754

1.665 - 1.862

1.731

4.722

Soybeans

???

0.201

0.180 - 0.256

0.191

0.870

Wheat

???

2.397

2.115 - 2.558

2.097

0.981

 

The Crop Progress harvest report for this past week is shown in the maps below for both corn and soybeans.  The recent storm system that moved across parts of the Midwest has slowed harvest putting producers behind average in several states for both crops.

Normally the U.S. corn harvest is 19% complete by this time, this year the nation’s harvested corn acres sit at about 15%.  The states with the biggest departure from average are:

  • Kansas-11% behind their average pace.
  • Iowa-7% behind the normal pace.
  • Minnesota, Missouri and Nebraska all are -6% behind normal.

Soybean harvest is estimated to be 10% complete, this compares to the U.S. 5 year average of 13%. States lagging furthest behind normal pace:

  • North Dakota is -9% behind normal.
  • Louisiana, Minnesota and South Dakota are each -6% behind their normal pace.
  • Iowa is -5% behind their average pace.

Several weeks ago I told you about a shortfall of funding for FSA approved farm operating loans.  The new short-term spending bill approved Wednesday by Congress unfortunately did not include additional funding for this program nor did it change wording giving the agency the ability to provide financing in proportion to the demand.  According to Politico, the FSA currently has 916 direct and guaranteed operating loan applications for approximately $119 million left to fulfill and these figures change daily as more applications for these loans arrive.  Without this additional funding the FSA will likely run out of money before December 9th which is when the continuing resolution expires.  Several farm groups are working on a resolution and are hopeful that an increase in funding for this program will arrive when lawmakers meet in December to negotiate the fiscal appropriations package for 2017.

With harvest in full swing across the country and the recent heavy rainfall delaying fieldwork for many of us, the main topic of everyone’s mind is the weather. I have included several forecast maps for a variety of dates, I hope this can give you some insight as you move through harvest.  The latest outlook from NOAA for Saturday, October 1st through Wednesday, October 5th is for cooler than normal temps across the West while the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. can expect above normal temps. This should allow wet soils to dry out in some areas and promote harvest progress.  The map shows the precipitation for that time period as well, as you can see the eastern portion of the Midwest and throughout the entire east coast rainfall is expected while a drier trend is expected in the western portion of the Midwest.

 

These maps show the precipitation and temperature forecasts for October 3rd through October 7th.  It looks as though there may be a shift in the rainfall from east to west likely during the middle of next week.

The map shown here is the 1 month outlook for the upcoming month of October:

Temperature trend

        

Precipitation trend

Looking even further down the road the December through February temperature forecast map from The Weather Company is out and it appears as though a majority of the U.S. has a rather warm winter to look forward to in 2016-17.  The Weather Company is predicting, with high confidence, that the Plains to the West will see a warm December.  January is predicted to bring the warmest weather to the nation.  The winter of 2015-2016 was the warmest December-February period in 121 years according to NOAA.  According to information from NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information, “36 states had one of their top 10 warmest winters last season” and if appears as though we could be in store for similar conditions this season.

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