South America and U.S Crop Conditions - Thursday, 08 September 2016

The weekly corn Good to Excellent crop condition rating was lowered by -1% to 74% from last week.  76% of the corn was found to be dented and 18% is mature. Harvest is well underway in many southern regions of the U.S. with several states reporting in with over 80% of the corn harvested. It’s probable that the USDA will release their first harvest estimate next week now that harvest has started in the southern portion of Illinois as well. 


CONAB has estimated Brazil’s 2015-16 corn crop under 67 MMT which is down by -1.5 MMT from their estimate just a month ago.  If this estimate holds true producers will find over a -20% reduction in yields from their previous harvest yields.  A yield reduction of this size is likely to cause the USDA to cut their production estimate for Brazil even further.  Producers in Brazil are expected to plant another large amount of corn acres next year if the weather looks favorable and banks are willing to fund the necessary loans.

Soybean’s held on to last week’s Good to Excellent rating of 73%.  They also find that 12% of the crop is beginning to drop leaves and harvest is well underway in southern states with Texas leading the way with 35% completed.

As we are entering into our fall harvest season in the U.S. South American producers are preparing to begin their planting season. During the month of September early soybean planting should begin in parts of Mato Grosso and central Brazil while the southern regions will begin their season closer to mid-October. Producers in Argentina will likely begin planting sometime in the next 60 days with November being the main month for the completion of planting their soybean acres.  The trade will be watching the weather in these areas very closely during the next 60+ days as well as yield results in the U.S.

The Weather Company has updated their long range outlook that takes us through November.  They are forecasting near to above normal temps for a large portion of the U.S.  This outlook is very similar to previous forecasts I have seen and reported to you during the past few weeks.  Predicting weather that far in advance is difficult but meteorologists study developing weather systems for clues and at this time they have their eyes on the developing La Niña.  Currently the system looks to be rather weak but is expected to remain in place through the 2016/2017 winter season.  The fall and winter of 1995-1996 had a similar pattern of development, that year we saw a cold conclusion to fall and the frigid temps continued into the winter.  This year the expectation is for the warmth to last further into the year bringing favorable harvest conditions to the U.S.



The short range forecasts are calling for periods of heavy rainfall in the western and northern areas of the Midwest. Dry conditions in the southeastern portion of the Midwest is hurting the yields by causing too rapid of dry down which is not allowing for the corn and soybeans to fill completely.  The 6-10 day forecast for September 12th – 16th shows cooler than normal temps and precipitation at normal to slightly above across the upper Midwest.


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