Crop Tour Results and Weather Outlooks - Friday, 26 August 2016

The USDA remains confident that farmers across the U.S. are experiencing some amazing crop conditions.  This week the agency raised the Good to Excellent rating higher once again to 75%; this is up 1 percentage point from a week ago.

Soybean ratings continue to remain in record setting territory at 72% Good to Excellent. Last year’s record breaking crop was rated at 63% at this time so final yields may prove interesting.  Storms brewing in the Atlantic are concerning producers across the South and some portions of the Midwest as some forecasts show current storm tracks could damage to the crop and cause harvest delays.  In addition to the weather another obsticle that may reduce the expected record yields is the developing issue of SDS and white mold in many key production areas, Sudden Death Syndrome along with other crop diseases are know to greatly reduce yields in affected area’s.

This week the much anticipated annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour was held.  The final yield total is still being calculated and is expected sometime later today. Some of the specific yields by state are shown below:

            State              USDA Estimate/b.p.a.     Pro Farmer Estimate/b.p.a

  • IOWA-                       197                                         188.17
  • MINNESOTA-           184                                         182.32
  • ILLINOIS-                  200                                         193.50
  • INDIANA-                  187                                         173.42
  • OHIO-                        163                                         148.96
  • SOUTH DAKOTA-     147                                         167.10         
  • NEBRASKA-              187                                         158.60

PRO FARMER TOUR TOTAL AVERAGE:                 _____________???

The Pro Farmer Tour does not calculate a yield for soybeans.  Instead they do pod counts and observe the overall health of the plants so there is no specific data to bring you.

Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report had some words of advice to consider as we move forward. “Demand remains strong, but as harvest pressure looms many inside the market fear the old adage that a big crop could keep getting bigger. Personally I don't see it happening, but then again I still don't believe the American farmer planted an extra +6 million acres of corn and I certainly don't agree with some of the massive yields they are forecasting for several key production states. Keep in mind however, it's not about being right or wrong in regard to acres or yield, it's about reducing risk and marketing our crop at profitable levels. Too often I feel like producers and traders get caught up in arguing the USDA data only to eventually be steamrolled by the market. You can be as right as the day is long, but if the market isn't listening or would rather look in a different direction it's all for not.”

Weather for the weekend looks for precipitation across a large portion of the country.  A significant amount of rainfall is expected to fall across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region with rainfall totals ranging between 1-5 inches in areas affected.

 

A tropical wave which could develop into Tropical storm Hermine is being watched in the Atlantic at this time but is currently expected to hit along the southern Atlantic Coast of the U.S.  Florida is preparing for the arrival of the storm this weekend with 2 to 6 inches of rainfall expected.  From there the storm is expected to spread into the Gulf Coast region including southern Louisiana by the early part of next week.

NOAA is predicting a warm and dry month of September for the U.S.  Looking at the 6-10 day outlook that runs from August 31st through September 4th, temperatures are expected to be above normal in all but the far Northwest portion of the country.  The precipitation map shows a large pocket of below- normal rainfall surrounded on the north, south and east with areas of above normal precipitation.

 

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