USDA Pre-Report Worksheet & S.A. Updates - Thursday, 11 August 2016

The Good to Excellent corn crop rating finally saw a decline of -2% this week.  This 74% Good to Excellent rating is still +4% above our rating at this time last year and well above average.  Harvesting has begun in southern regions of the U.S. with Texas well ahead of last year reporting 1/3 of their corn has been harvested along with Louisiana 18% and Mississippi 4% completed.

More positive news for soybeans as the USDA announced more new-crop sales to the Chinese, the U.S. has received orders now for 9 consecutive business days. The current Good to Excellent rating was left unchanged from last week at 72% this compares to last year’s rating of 63% which brought record breaking yields to the U.S.  While there are some concerns regarding rather dry conditions in some key growing areas the trade is still expecting the USDA to raise their yield estimate by +0.5 to +1.5 bushels per acre in tomorrow’s report.

USDA Supply and Demand tomorrow, Friday, August 12, 2016 Worksheets

U.S. Production 2016/17

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn Prod.

???

14.757

14.580 - 15.146

14.540

Corn Yield

???

170.6

168.6 - 175.0

168

Soybeans Prod.

???

3.941

3.865 - 4.054

3.880

Soybean Yield

???

47.5

46.7 - 48.8

46.7

U.S. Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

1.716

1.676 - 1.829

1.701

Soybeans

???

0.320

0.254 - 0.355

0.350

U.S. Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

2.255

1.967 - 2.653

2.081

Soybeans

???

0.316

0.268 - 0.403

0.290

Wheat

???

1.114

1.082 - 1.210

1.105

World Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

206.57

204.00 - 209.50

206.90

Soybeans

???

71.74

70.10 - 74.10

72.17

Wheat

???

245.07

241.42 - 251.00

244.52

World Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

Corn

???

212.69

201.20 - 228.71

208.39

Soybeans

???

67.62

64.51 - 70.80

67.10

Wheat

???

251.63

244.25 - 255.30

253.70

U.S. Wheat Production

 

USDA 8/12

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA July

All Wheat

???

2.270

2.231 - 2.360

2.261

All Winter

???

1.630

1.589 - 1.671

1.628

Hard Red Winter

???

1.033

0.993 - 1.049

1.034

Soft Red Winter

???

0.371

0.365 - 0.376

0.370

White Winter

???

0.224

0.220 - 0.244

0.224

Spring Wheat

???

 

0.547

0.525 - 0.576

0.550

Durum

???

 

0.086

0.080 - 0.094

0.083

 

The group Informa reported their newest estimates for U.S. crop production.  These estimates come in even higher than the last USDA’s report showed:

  • Soybeans are expected to yield 47.7 bushels per acre compared to the USDA estimate of 46.7 bushels per acre.
  • Corn is expected to come in at 169.8 bushels per acre according to Informa this compares to the USDA estimate of 168 bushel per acre.

Of course the USDA estimates will likely change when the newest numbers are released tomorrow.

Rueters ran an article regarding the U.S. ethanol industry and the industries new found customer, the #2 ethanol producing nation, Brazil.  Typically a portion of the sugar cane that is being harvested now in Brazil is used for the production of ethanol but with production levels lower than normal and soaring sugar prices U.S. ethanol companies are reaping the benefits.

Conab has reduced their production estimates for the corn and soybean crops in Brazil.  The yield losses are expected to reduce exports for corn by -20 million metric tons year-on-year. According to Soybean and Corn Advisor, these tight supplies have pushed corn prices significantly higher.  Prices range according to local supplies from $4.37 per bushel to $6.96 per bushel in harder hit areas. These prices are double the price of last year. Prices are not expected to decline any time in the near future and are actually predicted to move even higher. Soybean exports are also expected to decline from 54.324 a season ago to 54.1 million metric tons this year.

The news group, Soybean and Corn Advisor, is reporting a rather unique situation in South America.  In all of the years that Soybean and Corn Advisor has been involved in South American agriculture they have never seen harvest and planting seasons overlap.  They reported that, “Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul, which is Brazil’s southernmost state, have already started planting their 2016/17 full-season corn crop while farmers in Argentina are still trying to harvest their 2015/16 corn crop.”  The only explanation that they can come up with is, “early corn planting in Brazil has started extra early, while the late corn harvest in Argentina is occurring extra late.”  Argentina reported last March 21st that harvest had begun and was 4% complete, over 4 months later they only report 66% of the harvest is completed.  Interruptions from wet weather, a lack of drying capacity and high priced natural gas have all conspired together to slow the progress.

The forecast for Monday, August 15 through Friday, August 19th is for near to above normal temps for almost the entire country.  From the Midwest on westward below normal precipitation is expected while the South and East are looking for wetter than normal conditions.

THIS MAP IS SPECIFICALLY FOR TODAY, AUGUST 11TH. NOTICE WHERE THE BULLSEYE’S ARE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL!

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