USDA Report Numbers and Crop Progress - Tuesday, 12 July 2016

The USDA released their latest production numbers today for 2016/17.  There are a few of the notable I have listed followed by the worksheet.

  • Corn stocks were lowered by -7 million bushels (decreased usage for feed and ethanol were more than balanced out with the increases in seed use and exports)
  • Corn bushels used for ethanol production was reduced by -25 million bushels.
  • Corn used for feed fell to 5.5 billion bushels which is a -50 million bushel decrease from the June report but is still +300 million bushels more than last year.
  • New crop production was increased by +110 million bushels due to the increase in planted acres.
  • Exports for corn were raised by +100 million bushels as a result of Brazil’s production problems forcing them to cut many exports.
  • The new projected average price for new crop corn was adjusted lower to $3.10 - $3.70 per bushel.
  • New crop soybean production was raised by +80 million bushels.
  • Projected ending stocks for the new crop of soybeans now sits at 290 million bushels which is +30 million bushels from June.
  • Old crop soybean stocks fell by -20 million bushels from last month to 350 million bushels.
  • The new projected average price for new crop soybeans is $8.75 - $10.25 per bushel this was left unchanged.

U.S. Production 2016/17

 

USDA 7/8

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Prior

USDA 2015

Corn Prod.

14.540 

14.540

14.43 - 14.55

14.430

13.601

Corn Yield

168.0

168.0

167.0 - 168.5

168.0

168.4

Soybeans Prod.

3.880

3.867

3.80 - 3.89

3.800

3.93 

Soybean Yield

46.7

46.7

46.4 - 46.7

46.7 

48.0

U.S. Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

1.701

1.805

1.708 - 1.907

1.708

Soybeans

.350

0.352

0.280 - 0.420

0.370

U.S. Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

2.018

2.205

1.970 - 2.408

2.008

Soybeans

.290

0.287

0.170 - 0.360

0.260

Wheat

1.105

1.107

1.017 - 1.231

1.050

World Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

206.90

205.67

197.41 - 210.15

206.45

Soybeans

72.20

71.53

65.50 - 73.20

72.29

         

World Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

208.39

205.56

197.0 - 213.7

205.12

Soybeans

67.10

67.01

63.30 - 73.70

66.31

Wheat

253.70

258.82

255.0 - 263.4

257.84

U.S. Wheat Production 2016/17

 

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

All Wheat

2.261

2.159

2.070 - 2.270

2.077

All Winter

1.628

1.543

1.505 - 1.625

1.507

Hard Red Winter

1.034

0.968

0.938 - 1.053

0.938

Soft Red Winter

.370

0.357

0.345 - 0.366

0.355

White Winter

.224

0.218

0.205 - 0.232

0.214

South American Production 2015/16

 

July Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Brazil Corn

70.00

73.90

69.10 - 77.50

77.50

Brazil Soybeans

96.50

96.39

95.50 - 97.00

97.00

Argentina Corn

28.00

27.14

27.00 - 28.00

27.00

Argentina Soybeans

56.50

56.32

55.00 - 57.00

56.5

                   

“The Financial Times” ran an article regarding the quality of the domestic corn China has in storage.  Part of the article reports that “recent state auctions of corn up to four years old have been limited to industrial processors, in an implicit acknowledgment that the corn is unfit for consumption”.  The USDA has estimated that +20 MMT’s of corn would fall into that category. 

The USDA raised the expected corn exports in the report but until you compare those sales numbers to previous years it’s really just “another number”.  The U.S. outstanding corn export sales are 71% above the 5 year average!  We are 43 weeks into the marketing year, when totaled the accumulated exports and the outstanding sales equal 47.252 million metric tons, this figure is already higher than the projected total for the year of 46.357 million metric tons! This trend is likely to continue for quite some time as Brazil’s corn crop continues to be downgraded.

USDA’s crop progress was updated yesterday.  Normally we see the corn rated “Good to Excellent” reduced during July, when in fact the number was raised from 75% to 76% “Good to Excellent” this week.

Very interesting graph to study:

The U.S. soybean crop was also found to have improved during the past week the “Good to Excellent” rating was raised from 70% to 71%.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to rebuild in the Central U.S. and move into the Northern Plains over the weekend.  The heat is likely to continue through next week as well according to both U.S. GFS and EURO models.  This sizable heat-wave is expected to remain for at least a week, possibly longer.  If this holds together the U.S. will experience the #1 hottest 3rd week in July in 121 years, meaning the records set in 2012 will be broken.  The maps below indicate temperature and precipitation probabilities for July 17-21st.

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