USDA Report & Hot/Dry Outlooks - Thursday, 30 June 2016

Extremely bearish acreage number for corn while soybean acres received a rather bullish estimate.

USDA June 30, 2016 Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Worksheets

Acreage Estimates

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Guess

Trade Range

March 31Est.

Final 2015

Corn

94.148

92.896

92.000 – 94.000

93.601

87.999

Soybeans

83.688

83.834

82.100 – 85.700

82.236

82.650

All Wheat

50.816

49.86

48.800 – 53.916

49.599

54.644

Winter Wheat

36.538

36.384

36.000 – 38.725

36.216

39.461

Spring Wheat

12.133

11.714

11.000 – 13.350

11.348

13.247

Durum Wheat

2.145

1.975

1.800 – 2.100

1.995

1.936

Grain Stocks Estimates

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Guess

Trade Range

June 1, 2015

March 1, 2016

Corn

4.722

4.528

4.437 – 4.650

4.453

7.808

Soybeans

0.870

0.829

0.775 – 0.862

0.627

1.531

Wheat

0.981

0.982

0.953 – 1.000

0.752

1.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In these maps shown below, blue indicates an increase in acres from the previous year, red a decrease and gray states have no change in acres.

  

The USDA weekly Crop Progress report left corn unchanged with a rating of 75% Good to Excellent, this compares to a rating of 68% at this point of the season a year ago.  Market Bears are confident, given this data that the U.S. is on course for a record yield of 170 – 175 bushels per acre. 

During this same week a year ago the USDA rated 63% of the nation’s soybeans crop as Good to Excellent this year that report has rated 72% of the U.S. soybean crop is that category.  The U.S. harvested a record yield last year of 48.0 bushels per acre so with an increase of 9% in the Good to Excellent category many analysts expect adjustments to be made by the USDA to their average yield expectations for 2016 as well as the total acres planted in the reports to follow.

 

Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report has doubts regarding the accuracy of reports that give widespread rainfall totals and instead suspects that many of these rain events are spotty.  “We are seeing rainfall on the radar maps, but many producers are saying it’s simply not hitting their fields.” More than ever before, he is hearing reports of a farm on one side of the road receiving rain while the others nearby do not. It seems that the rains are much more sporadic on the ground than what is being reported.  There are a lot of areas that are seeing extreme heat and a crop I believe is thirstier than the trade is willing to acknowledge.  Bottom-line, I’m seeing and hearing a lot more talk about variability within counties and even from field to field. “ 

The Midwest Regional Climate Center reported that the higher than normal temperatures and very dry conditions found across the Midwest in June have caused some concern for drought.  Some portions of Iowa and Missouri have received less than ¼ of the normal precipitation found during the month.

 

The Weather Company has come out with their long range forecast for July through September.  Their outlook says “Most of the evidence suggests that the July pattern will be rather similar to the June pattern with any cool weather early in the month in central/eastern U.S. quickly replaced by more expansive hear, especially from the Southwest into the Great Lakes”.  That hot/dry trend is likely to continue through September with the vast majority of the Midwest and Plains finding temperatures much-above average.

(The map below is from The Weather Channel)

              

The USDA reported last Sunday that “drought-like conditions exist” within many portions of the Corn Belt, likewise “Captain Kirk” and WeatherTrends 360 remains confident that the U.S. is now and will continue to experience conditions similar to 2012.  WeatherTrends has published some fairly strong evidence for this viewpoint in the maps below.  For meteorologists “summer” begins June 1st, when considering that date:

U.S.:

  • June is the #1 hottest start to summer in 121 years!
  • June was also the 2nd driest in 25+ years!

CORN BELT SPECIFICALLY:

  • June delivered the most 90F days in 22 years. (even more than 2012)
  • Hottest average in 28 years.
  • 3rd driest in 25 years and trending close to June of 2012.

 

The graph from WeatherTrends Inc. includes various cities from key crop growing states, as you can see from the data many areas are beginning to suffer from the overly hot and dry June conditions.  Consider what damage may be sustained IF the hot/dry trend continues through July and August.

 

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