USDA Numbers and Father's Day Weekend Forecast - Thursday, 16 June 2016

The USDA released the June Supply and Demand Report last week with some much anticipated bullish adjustments. 

CORN

  • Ending stocks for 2015/16 were lowered by -95 million bushels.
  • A +100 million bushel increase for corn exports was projected which compensates for the marginally higher imported bushels expectation.
  • Production was unchanged at a record 14.430 billion bushels.
  • Ending stocks estimates for 2016/17 were reduced by -145 million bushels from last month to 2.008 billion bushels.
  • The export number for 2016/17 corn was raised by +50 million bushels.
  • Corn production out of Brazil for 2015/16 was lowered substantially by -3.5 million tons.

SOYBEANS

  • Ending stocks for 2015/16 were lowered from last month’s estimate by -30 million bushels to 370 million bushels.
  • The crush number was increased by +10 million bushels to 1,890 million.
  • Exports are projected to grow by +20 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks for the following 2016/17 year were reduced by -45 million bushels to 260 million bushels.  (This decrease is due to an expected increase in exports combined with a lower beginning stocks number.)
  • Soybean production in Brazil is expected to fall by -2.0 million tons to 97 million bushels and exports are also expected to decrease from 59.5 to 58.75.

 

USDA Supply and Demand Friday, June 10, 2016 Worksheets

 

U.S. Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

1.708

1.772

1.728 - 1.820

1.803

Soybeans

0.370

0.385

0.355 - 0.400

0.400

Wheat

0.980

0.981

0.953 - 1.00

0.978

 

U.S. Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.008

2.125

1.973 - 2.441

2.153

Soybeans

0.260

0.289

0.215 - 0.350

0.305

Wheat

1.050

1.045

1.007 - 1.100

1.029

 

World Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

206.5

206.00

204.50 - 208.50

207.87

Soybeans

72.3

72.73

70.00 - 74.00

74.25

Wheat

243.0

242.48

241.00 - 243.20

242.91

  •  

World Ending Stocks 2016/17

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

205.1

205.18

204.00 - 208.00

207.04

Soybeans

66.3

66.67

65.00 - 68.01

68.21

Wheat

257.8

257.80

255.00 - 261.43

257.34

 

U.S. Wheat Production 2015/16

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

All Wheat

2.077

2.014

1.898 - 2.128

1.998

All Winter

1.51

1.451

1.413 - 1.545

1.427

Hard Red Winter

0.938

0.883

0.862 - 0.980

0.863

Soft Red Winter

0.355

0.355

0.332 - 0.367

0.357

White Winter

0.190

0.211

0.205 - 0.220

0.208

 

South American Production 2015/16

 

June Est.

Average Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Brazil Corn

77.50

79.00

76.00 - 81.00

81.00

Brazil Soybeans

97.00

98.16

97.00 - 99.00

99.00

Argentina Corn

27.00

26.81

26.00 - 27.00

27.00

Argentina Soybeans

56.50

55.69

54.50 - 56.50

56.50

 

The consulting firm, Informa, cut their estimated corn acres this week for 2016 by 800,000 acres to 92.56 million acres.  The forecasted soybean acres were raised from the previous estimate of 82.2 million acres to 83.76 million.  The June Acreage Report from the USDA will be out June 30th, which should give us a good idea on where this acreage debate will settle out.

China is in the process of blending their supply of domestic corn with imported corn to improve the quality.  The trade had assumed that this supply would be purchased from the U.S. but now that may not be the situation.  China has been importing almost all of their corn needs from Ukraine and there has been no indication that they plan to change that anytime soon.  A recent statement by The National Grain Trade Center indicated that China has auctioned 3,120,704 metric tons of their domestic supply.  This sold volume equals approximately 70% of the total volume offered and includes corn from the production years of 2011-2013.   Even without the export business to China the U.S. had buyers from 31 different countries book corn shipments just last week.  This group of buyers is the most diversified group we have had at one time since a record of 32 back in October, 2007. 

The abundance of rainfall in the Upper Midwest over the past couple of weeks is evident in the map below.  Some areas of the country are becoming concerned about the lack of rainfall though and temperatures that are averaging +10 degrees above normal will add stress to crops in these effected areas.

                          

As the map below indicates a large portion of the country is expected to see dangerously hot temperatures through this weekend.  The heat will be especially excessive from Southern California across the Southwest and into the Plains.  Previous high temperature records are likely to be met or exceeded; temps are expected to climb well above 100 degrees in some areas.  This high pressure ridge will also deliver mid 90’s to low 100’s throughout the Plains and Midwest with the hottest and most dangerous temps expected Saturday through Tuesday.  If you compare the soil moisture map above and the temperature map below you can notice that some of the dry areas are also the areas that will find the hottest temps this weekend.

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