Planting Progress and Weekend Forecasts - Thursday, 26 May 2016

The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 86% of the 2016 corn crop has been planted.  This is less than many in the trade had anticipated but is in line with last year’s 90% and the 5-year average of 85% planted.  This calculates out to about 13 million corn acres still unplanted.  States with the most significant amount of unplanted corn acres are:

  • Indiana- 2.2 million acres
  • Ohio- 1.73 million acres
  • Illinois- 1.33 million acres
  • Nebraska and South Dakota are each just under 1 million acres left
  • Michigan- 850,000 acres

There are other states that have acres left to plant as well but generally they have 500,000 or less unplanted corn acres.  Weather has been cooperating the last several days in the eastern Corn Belt, where the majority of the unplanted acres are found. Producers expect to have corn planting completed by the weekend if the rain holds off. Next week’s Crop Progress report will give us the first update on the condition of the U.S. corn crop.  Expectations are that the report will show a Good to Excellent rating of 74% which is similar to last year’s rating.

FINAL PLANTING DATES FOR CORN

The map above shows us that several states reached their final planting date for corn, rain delays and improved soybean prices are making the switch from corn to soybeans an easier decision for producers in the affected areas.  

The soybean planting progress for this week moved up to 56% from the previous week’s estimate of 36%.  This compares to 56% 1 year ago and the 5-year average of 52%.  That percentage of unplanted soybean acres calculates out to about 40 million acres. States with the largest lag in planted soybean acres are:

  • Ohio- 24% behind average pace
  • Kansas- 20% behind average pace
  • Indiana- 19% behind average pace
  • Michigan- 14% behind average pace
  • Nebraska- 13% behind average pace

There also are several big production states running well ahead of normal:

  • North Dakota- 43% ahead of average
  • Minnesota- 31% ahead of average
  • Iowa- 10% ahead of average
  • South Dakota- 9% ahead of average

According to a recent report from Agroconsult, the corn shortage crisis in Brazil may take over a year to correct.  Brazil is expected to produce 78.5 million ton of corn in the 2015/2016 cycle compared to the 84.7 million ton they produced in the same cycle in 2014/2015.  Agroconsult believes that this will cause the corn supply to remain low until the second ½ of 2017. The country consumed approximately 60 million ton of corn in the current season and have exported 35.7 million ton of corn between July, 2015 and April, 2016.

With the long Memorial Day weekend coming up I wish the forecast looked pleasant for everyone’s outdoor plans but….the first map below shows rainfall totals for today May 26nd through this Saturday, May 28th.

 

The map below shows the forecast specifically for Memorial Day (Monday).  Warmer temps are expected to finally arrive to parts of the Midwest and East over the holiday weekend but stormy weather is predicted to accompany the warm-up.       

HAVE A GREAT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND !

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