Wild Weather and The Growing Season - Friday, 15 April 2016

The USDA Supply and Demand report released Tuesday found higher ending stocks for corn. There was a reduction of 50 million bushels used for feed and residual while corn used for ethanol was increased by 25 million bushels. The global stocks were raised higher due to a bump in production in Argentina, Brazil production was unchanged.  The U.S. ending stocks balance for soybeans was lowered while the global stocks saw a slight increase.  The U.S. supply fell due to an increase of 15 million bushels in exports, while soybean crush and soybean meal and oil totals were unchanged. 

USDA Supply and Demand TUESDAY, April 12, 2016 Worksheets

2016 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

April #

Average

Trade Range

USDA March

Corn 

1.862

1.845

1.787 - 1.902

1.837

Soybeans

0.445

0.454

0.430 - 0.480

0.460

Wheat

0.976

0.977

0.961 - 0.996

0.966

2016 World Ending Stocks

 

April #

Average

Trade Range

USDA March

Corn 

208.91

207.35

206.00 - 209.20

206.97

Soybeans

79.02

78.96

77.50 - 80.50

78.87

Wheat

239.26

237.22

235.14 - 238.50

237.59

South American Production

 

April #

Average

Trade Range

USDA March

Brazil
Corn 

84.00 

83.79

82.00 - 85.00

84.00

Brazil
Soybeans

100.00

100.20

99.50 - 101.00

100.00

Argentine
Corn

28.00

27.18

26.50 - 29.00

27.00

Argentine
Soybeans

59.00

59.16

58.20 - 60.00

58.50

 

The pace of planting in the U.S. will be watched closely by the trade for the next several weeks.  Producers in large portions of the country are now in the field and planters are making fast progress in many key production areas.  With the early start and near perfect conditions in many areas it is difficult to imagine prices moving higher, but they have been.  Demand for U.S. corn has been better than previously expected and the South American crop is beginning to lose ground.  Areas in Argentina have been receiving too much rainfall which is causing concern while Brazil’s second-crop corn yield is uncertain due to an increase in dry areas.  Some private analysts have begun to reduce previous estimates, it’s thought that the USDA could be 1-3 MMT too high with the current Brazilian estimates.  Analysts also caution that if the extreme heat and dry conditions continue into May the current estimate from the USDA may actually be 3 -5 MMT to high.  Brazils’ second-crop corn was planted later than normal, this means there is much uncertainty as to how the crop will respond in regards to the late-rains and heat as the season progresses.

The USDA estimated that 4% of the U.S. 2016 corn crop had been planted as of last weekend which is just slightly ahead of the past couple of years but considerably behind the pace in 2010 and 2012. 

 

The EPA and NOAA have both stated that the average growing season in the lower 48 states has increased by 10 days compared to historical averages with the largest percentage of growth occurring since 1980.  The Growing Season is defined as the period of time between the last frost in the spring (a temp below 32 degrees F) and the first frost of fall.  2 Key Points according to the EPA and NOAA

  • In the lower 48 states the average length of the growing season has grown by almost 2 weeks since the beginning of the 1900’s, the largest and most steady increase has occurred over the last 30 years.
  • Almost every state has seen an increase.  States in the Southwest (Arizona and California) have seen the most dramatic increase, while the length of the growing season has actually decreased in a few Southeastern states.

 

A Flash Drought (a drought that develops quickly) has formed and spread across parts of the Plains states since the beginning of March.  This area had not seen any amount of significant rainfall in nearly two months which has led to several wildfires as well.  Kansas is experiencing the largest wildfires in that states history, air quality as far away as Iowa is being affected by the heavy smoke from these fires.  Relief arrived to the drought areas this week though as a more spring like pattern developed, unfortunately though a slow moving storm is forecasted to move over the area for the next several days.  Rain is expected from Texas to Nebraska starting late tonight with “full blown flash floods expected over the weekend”.  The soil is quite saturated from the rainfall earlier this week so the moisture from this weekend’s storm system is expected to trigger flash flooding over a large portion of the Plains states.  Forecasts show rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 6+ inches from Texas to South Dakota through Tuesday. 

 

After a cold start to the month a warming trend has begun.  We can expect to see temperatures near 80 degrees this weekend in the same areas that just one week ago saw record cold temps and snowfall!

 

7-Day Rainfall Totals: Valid Tuesday April 12 - Tuesday April 19

Looking further ahead the forecast for next week, April 19th- 23rd looks for near to above normal temperatures with near to below normal precipitation across most of the country.  The exception will be in the southern half of the Plains and the Southeast where wetter than normal conditions are expected.

© 2015 Ag Performance | All Rights Reserved.

Home | About Us | Services | Products | News | Contact Us |