USDA Report and A Cold Start to April - Thursday, 31 March 2016

The USDA announced the March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks numbers today.  Here’s how it breaks down:

 

USDA March 31, 2016 Quarterly Stocks & Prospective Plantings Worksheets

March Quarterly Grain Stocks

 

March #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA March 1, 2015

USDA Dec. 1, 2015

Corn

7.808

7.801

7.700 - 7.975

7.750

11.212

Soybeans

1.531

1.556

1.425 - 1.615

1.327

2.715

Wheat

1.372

1.356

1.325 - 1.460

1.140

1.738

March Prospective Planting

 

March #

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

Corn

93.601

89.972

89.000 - 91.000

Soybeans

82.236

83.057

81.600 - 84.200

All Wheat

49.559

51.702

50.669 - 54.845

Winter Wheat

36.216

36.925

36.430 - 39.646

Spring Wheat

11.348

12.838

11.950 - 13.620

Durum

1.995

1.875

1.600 - 2.182

 

 

 

The maps below shows the USDA’s estimates by state, blue indicates states that are expected to increase acres while the red states are predicted to reduce those acres.

 

CORN ACRES:

 

 

SOYBEAN ACRES:

 

 

 

 

 

(same information as CORN map above, much easier to read in this format)

 

Alabama +80k acres

Arizona -5k  

Arkansas +330k 

California +10k

Colorado +150k

Connecticut -1k

Delaware +5k

Florida +20k

Georgia +60k

Idaho +40k

Illinois +400k

Indiana .+150k

Iowa +400k

Kansas .+650k

Kentucky .+100k

Louisiana +330k

Maine  unchanged

Maryland +50k

Massachusetts -1k

Michigan +100k

Minnesota +100k

Mississippi +290k

Missouri +350k

Montana -10k

Nebraska +300k

Nevada +2k

New Hampshire -1k

New Jersey -5k

New Mexico -20k

New York +20k

North Carolina +140k

North Dakota +650k

Ohio  unchanged

Oklahoma +50k

Oregon +10k

Pennsylvania +60k

Rhode Island unchanged

 

 

 

 

 

Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report analyzed the numbers from the report today and commented, “As I travel around the country talking to producers everyone keeps saying the same thing, ”We didn’t pay this kind of money to simply plant soybeans” In other words, guys aren’t paying $250 to $350 cash rents with the intentions of going in and planting soybeans at a slight loss or at best break-even.”  Given the soybean to corn ratio, “they feel like their backs are against the wall and they are coming out swinging.  They want to chase the yield in hopes that they can out produce the lower prices….The problem is if this horse doesn’t come in many folks are going to leave the race track a big loser….It’s all or nothing now…I suspect without a major U.S. weather hiccup prices will remain under pressure.”

 

The weather seems a bit unsettled, trying to decide if it’s winter or spring.  This Sunday, April 3rd through the first full week of the month a Polar Vortex carrying arctic air from the North Pole is expected to push into the U.S. and drop temps far below average.  There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south the cold air will travel but those areas affected can expect to see temps that will average 15-30 degrees F below normal.

 

 

© 2015 Ag Performance | All Rights Reserved.

Home | About Us | Services | Products | News | Contact Us |