USDA Report Data & Weather Updates - Tuesday, 12 January 2016

The USDA Final Production Report for 2015 was released at 11:00 CST today, below is a worksheet of the results as it compares to previous reports and prior predictions.

U.S. Corn & Soybean Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

USDA 2014

Corn
Crop Total

13.601

13.654

13.646

13.525 - 13.770

14.216

Corn
Yield Avg.

168.4

169.3

169.2

167.7 - 170.0

171.0

Corn
Harvested Acres

80.7

80.664

80.634

80.270 - 81.000

83.1

Soybean
Crop Total

3.930

3.981

3.981

3.926 - 4.043

3.969

Soybean
Yield Avg.

48.0

48.3

48.3

47.5 - 49.0

47.8

Soybean Harvested Acres

81.8

82.429

82.404

82.000 - 82.709

83.061

December 1 Quarterly Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

11.211

1.731

11.237

11.073 - 11.440

Soybeans

2.715

0.191

2.720

2.590 - 2.850

Wheat

1.738

2.089

1.698

1.670 - 1.732

2015/16 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

1.802

1.785

1.785

1.642 - 1.860

Soybeans

0.440

0.465

0.468

0.430 - 0.492

Wheat

0.941

0.911

0.919

0.891 - 0.941

2015/16 World Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

208.94

211.85

212.51

209.90 - 218.50

Soybeans

79.28

82.58

82.57

80.77 - 84.00

Wheat

232.04

229.86

229.60

228.00 - 231.11

Winter Wheat Acreage

 

Jan. #

USDA 2015 Seedings

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Hard Red Winter

26.5

28.978

28.810

27.576 - 29.592

Soft Red Winter

6.72

7.087

7.144

6.400 - 8.539

White Winter

3.43

3.396

3.366

3.250 - 3.500

Total
Winter

36.609

39.461

39.320

38.250 - 40.796

South American Crop Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Argentina Corn

25.60

25.60

25.64

21.50 - 26.50

Argentina Soybeans

???

57.00

57.28

55.50 - 58.50

Brazil
Corn

81.50

81.50

81.33

80.00 - 82.00

Brazil Soybeans

???

100.00

99.29

98.00 - 101.00

Today’s report was a small dose of positive news which will hopefully limit the effect of so much bearish news around the globe at least temporarily. A true market turn-around will likely take more time.  Some of the highlights from the report:

CORN

  • Yield lowered from 169.3 to 168.4 bu. per acre
  • Harvested acres increased.
  • Global production reduced.
  • Export demand decreased by -50 million bushels.
  • Chinese corn imports decreased from 3.0 to 2.5.
  • World ending stocks were lowered but remain at record level of 208.9 million tons.  It’s believed that more than half of those bushels are held in China.
  • The average on-the-farm price for corn was lowered to a range of $3.30-$3.90 per bushel.

SOYBEANS

  • Harvested acres reduced.
  • Yield was also reduced from 48.3 to 48 bu. per acre
  • U.S. ending stocks lowered from last month by -25 million down to 440 million.
  • Global soybean supply lowered.
  • Exports reduced by -25 million bushels.
  • The average on-the-farm price for soybeans was lowered to a range of $8.05-$9.55 per bushel.

Very cold arctic air spread across the Midwest over the weekend, this cold blast is expected to be interrupted occasionally over the next 10 days with normal to above normal temps that will give us short reprieves from the extreme cold.  At this time there are no big winter storms on the horizon but forecasters warn us to keep a watchful eye. 

South America received some substantial rainfall over the weekend in some of the driest production areas. Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Minas Gervais, Goya’s, Parana and northern Rio Grande Do Sul all received beneficial rains.  Continued intermittent rains are expected to last through the next two weeks in the Center-West and Northeast.  This rainfall should help the late corn and soybeans in that region, if the rains linger longer than expected it will begin to hamper soybean harvest.

We hear a lot about Brazil but many of us don’t know where the certain states are in comparison with each other and the level of production found in each area. The maps below show you where the key corn and soybean producing areas are in Brazil and also helps you understand where the greatest percentage of bushels were grown this past year.

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