Short & Long Term Weather & USDA Worksheet - Friday, 08 January 2016

The USDA January report will be announced next Tuesday, January 12th, 2016 at this time the trade is not expecting a lot of changes.  Corn exports are expected to be reduced by -25 million bushels, ethanol is likely to remain unchanged but there is a lot of speculation regarding the final yield with most estimates showing a swing of 2 bushels in either direction.  Soybean stocks are looking to move higher from earlier numbers due in part to lower exports and a decline in the domestic crush.  Some within the trade believe that the USDA’s expectations for South American crops are not likely to be significantly adjusted in Tuesday’s report because of the wide variance in yield reports.  Some producers have reported record setting yields while others have found the worst yields they have seen in years.  While we wait for more results on this harvest also keep in mind that the second-crop corn in Brazil will remain an important unknown in the global supply market for some time yet.  Following this report next week one of the next big indicators for the trade will be the U.S. acreage intentions for 2016 which the USDA will present during the Ag Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA, February 25-26th

Below is a worksheet for next week’s USDA report:

 

USDA's final production estimates for 2015 released January 12 @ 11:00 CST

U.S. Corn & Soybean Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

USDA 2014

Corn
Crop Total

???

13.654

13.646

13.525 - 13.770

14.216

Corn
Yield Avg.

???

169.3

169.2

167.7 - 170.0

171.0

Corn
Harvested Acres

???

80.664

80.634

80.270 - 81.000

83.1

Soybean
Crop Total

???

3.981

3.981

3.926 - 4.043

3.969

Soybean
Yield Avg.

???

48.3

48.3

47.5 - 49.0

47.8

Soybean Harvested Acres

???

82.429

82.404

82.000 - 82.709

83.061

December 1 Quarterly Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

???

1.731

11.237

11.073 - 11.440

Soybeans

???

0.191

2.720

2.590 - 2.850

Wheat

???

2.089

1.698

1.670 - 1.732

2015/16 U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

???

1.785

1.785

1.642 - 1.860

Soybeans

???

0.465

0.468

0.430 - 0.492

Wheat

???

0.911

0.919

0.891 - 0.941

2015/16 World Ending Stocks

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Corn

???

211.85

212.51

209.90 - 218.50

Soybeans

???

82.58

82.57

80.77 - 84.00

Wheat

???

229.86

229.60

228.00 - 231.11

Winter Wheat Acreage

 

Jan. #

USDA 2015 Seedings

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Hard Red Winter

???

28.978

28.810

27.576 - 29.592

Soft Red Winter

???

7.087​​

7.144

6.400 - 8.539

White Winter

???

3.396

3.366

3.250 - 3.500

Total
Winter

???

39.461

39.320

38.250 - 40.796

South American Crop Production

 

Jan. #

Previous USDA

Avg. Guess

Range of Guesses

Argentina Corn

???

25.60

25.64

21.50 - 26.50

Argentina Soybeans

???

57.00

57.28

55.50 - 58.50

Brazil
Corn

???

81.50

81.33

80.00 - 82.00

Brazil Soybeans

???

100.00

99.29

98.00 - 101.00

 

 

An Arctic blast of cold air is headed for all of us in the nation’s midsection this weekend as a result of a large southerly dip in the jet stream that has developed.  Strong and gusty winds are accompanying the system which will result in low wind chill temperatures, in the northern portion of the Midwest temperatures with wind chill may fall as much as -30 below zero!

 

 

2015 was the second-warmest and third-wettest year in U.S. history.  Every state in the continental U.S. was warmer than average, only the year of 2012 saw a warmer average.  Almost every continental U.S. state saw above normal precipitation putting 2015 in third place behind the years of 1973 and 1983.  The month of December finished out the year with bang, it was the first time any single month was both the warmest and wettest EVER, and the record books go back 121 years to 1895!!  The graphics below show historical weather patterns following an El Niño event and production years following record setting November and December rainfall totals.  A climatologist from Nebraska recently predicted that the 2016 production season will begin with our current El Niño in place.  During the summer El Niño will be replaced with La Niña (which brings dry conditions) that will stress 2016 crops and will cause extreme drought conditions during our 2017 crop year…All food for thought!

 

 

 

 

 

Nov.-Dec. is unofficially #1 wettest since before 1895 in the U.S. Corn Belt, besting El Niño-induced rains in 1982.

 

5 of the 6 worst U.S. corn crops since 1960 followed the wettest Nov.-Dec.in the Corn Belt ('74, '83, '88, '93, and ‘12) 

 

4 of the 6 worst U.S. soybean crops since 1960 followed the wettest Nov.-Dec.in the Corn Belt ('74, '83, '84, '88)​ 

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