Final RFS Rule and Weather - Wednesday, 02 December 2015

The EPA announced this week the new ethanol mandate that has been the subject of much debate for many months.  In 2007 a federal law mandated that 22.25 billion gallons of biofuels be mixed in with the fuel supply by 2016.  In May of this year the EPA proposed the level for 2016 be 17.4 billion gallons, the final rule announced Monday calls for 18.11 billion gallons, considerably lower than the original mandate in 2007 but slightly higher than what was proposed just last spring.  Below is a graphic by the VanTrump Report that shows the comparisons between what the mandate had called for production levels to be for 2014, 2015 and 2016 and compares them to what the EPA proposed in May and what the final rules state.

 

This ruling has given the market a small dose of positive news with a boost in demand that the trade had not anticipated.  By adding the additional 500 million gallons to the May proposal we will use 100 million more bushels than estimated.  To keep this in perspective though the U.S. currently uses about 450 million bushels of corn every month as it stands now so the added 100 million bushels isn’t considered a substantial increase. 

 

 

 

 

During these first two weeks in December, NASS will be distributing their annual December surveys on crops and livestock.  Roughly 90,000 producers from around the U.S. will be contacted for this survey which is one of the USDA’s largest survey efforts.  The information gathered will provide final data about the 2015 U.S. row crops such as harvested acres, production and storage.  Hog producers will be asked for current inventory numbers and farrowing intentions for the next 6 months.  Data collected from these surveys will first be available on December 23rd, with the USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report, followed on January 12th, 2016 with the annual Crop Production Summary and other various other reports.  So if you receive one of these surveys please be aware of the importance of the information you provide.

 

 

 

 

When we look outside its difficult to believe that the strong cold-front and Thanksgiving storm from last week will soon be replaced with a warming pattern that should dominate for the first two weeks of December.  The biggest warm up is expected during the second week of the forecast from late this coming weekend and for the remainder of the coming week. The El Niño pattern is expected to break during the third week which could allow for cooler temps to move back in just in time for Christmas. 

 

 

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