USDA Report Wrap-Up - Aug, 15 August 2018
Update for August 15, 2018   Last Friday the USDA delivered an even bigger bearish report than most traders had anticipated. The biggest surprise came in the soybean yield estimate where yields were raised by 3.1 bushels per acre, a 2.0 bushel per acre increase over what the trade had expected. The corn yield also saw an increase in the August estimate. Given the current figures the projected season-average price for producers for corn is down .20 cents at the midpoint at a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018-19 is now estimated at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint which is .35 cents lower than a month ago. ... view details

USDA WASDE Worksheet and Weather Outlooks - Aug, 09 August 2018
Update for August 9th, 2018 The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand WASDE report tomorrow. This will be the first crop report with the new release procedure which means news services will now have access to the crop report data in the same way the general public does, from the USDA website. Previously the news services were given the data just prior to the 11:00 a.m. CST release time. There is some concern that this added traffic on the USDA website may cause the website to crash. The August report is a significant one because it gives us the first yield estimates that include USDA staff field surveys. Historically this report moves corn an average of + or - 10 cents and soybeans an average of + or - 20 cents on the report release day. ... view details

Yield Outlook & Trade - Aug, 03 August 2018
Update for August 3rd, 2018 Prices have varied widely this week as reports out of Washington offer promise and then not and as yields, crop conditions and weather remain unknown as well. There are a wide range of corn yield estimates being reported this season by scouts these figures are running anywhere from a low of 164 bushels per acre to a high of 184 bushels per acre. It’s too soon to know for sure but some forecasts point towards drier conditions and temps turning a bit hotter than previously forecast through the Midwest during the first couple weeks of August. (older maps shown in weather section below with cooler and wetter outlooks) Exports remain strong and ahead of last year’s numbers partially thanks to production issues in parts of the EU and shipping problems in South America. Demand for ethanol remains high as well and we have a massive livestock herd in the U.S.  providing strong demand for corn. The USDA left the weekly crop conditions overall Good to Excellent corn crop rating at 72% for the 3rd consecutive week. One interesting thing to note in this week’s rating is several of the top corn producing states saw conditions deteriorate while other states saw conditions improve…how will that correlate to bushels? ... view details

Farm Aid Package and Latest on Trade - Jul, 27 July 2018
Update for July 27th, 2018 President Trump has authorized a $12 billion Farm Aid package intended to relieve the financial stress caused from declining agricultural commodity prices caused by trade and tariff issues. To help compensate producer’s U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue announced that the USDA is prepared to take action in the form of 3 different programs each designed to assist farmers until the trade tariff negotiations can be worked through. The 3 different parts to the program are as follows:  The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act is expected to be administrated by Farm Service Agency (FSA) and will deliver scheduled payments to the producers of soybeans, sorghum, corn and wheat. The USDA will also use the CCC Charter Act as well as additional authorities to execute a Food Purchase and Distribution Program through the Agricultural Marketing service.  The purpose of this is to purchase any surpluses of products such as beef, pork, milk, rice, legumes, nuts and fruits for distribution to food banks and various other nutrition programs. The Trade Protection Program is part of the CCC’s Charter Act and will be used for the purpose of helping the U.S. develop new export markets around the world for our farm products.  This portion of the assistance program will be administrated through the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). ... view details

Impact of Chinese Tariffs, USDA Report Worksheet & Crop Update - Jul, 17 July 2018
Update for July 17th, 2018   Last week the USDA released their July numbers. Prior to the report the agency had signaled that they were planning to adjust for the new Chinese tariffs against U.S. crop exports in this July report which many assumed would send another shock to prices.  The market was relieved when world carryover stocks and U.S. stocks were basically left unchanged in the data. It’s expected that the world carryout for corn next year will be down 40.0 million tons from the stocks on August 31, 2018; soybean stocks are predicted to increase by 2.25 million tons which is far less than some had feared. ... view details

Update for July 12th, 2018 - Jul, 12 July 2018
Update for July 12th, 2018 Later this morning the USDA will release the July WASDE report. Traders are expecting an increase in corn, soybean and wheat carryout compared to the last report. In the past 10 years the USDA has only reduced corn yields 2 times, those years being 2008-09 and 2012-13.  The remaining 8 years saw no change from the June estimate. The higher yield expected by the trade shows the confidence traders have in the highly rated crop conditions and the improved seed genetics which they feel deserve bigger yield estimates for this July report. ... view details

USDA Report, Tariffs vs the Family Farm and Weather Forecast - Jul, 03 July 2018
Update for July 3rd, 2018 For the first time in 35 years soybean acres in the U.S. will surpass corn acres.  According to an article from Bloomberg, growers across the country planted 89.557 million acres of soybeans and 89.128 million corn acres which according data released last Friday is the most valuable U.S. crop. Corn acres were a bit above recent estimates while soybean acres were slightly lower than expected. The Quarterly Stocks Estimate found close to 40 million more bushels of corn than previously thought, soybean totals came in where expected. The total acreage of the 8 major U.S. crops which include corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, sorghum, oats, rice and barley totaled 254.3 million. This is up from the March estimate of 251.3 million and last year’s acreage of 252.1 million acres. Below is the worksheet showing the data from last Fridays USDA crop reports. ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet, Weather and Possible Heat Dome - Jun, 28 June 2018
Update for June 28th, 2018 Trade war issues have traders and the crop markets all wondering what to expect as we move further into the season with primarily favorable weather and beautiful crops growing in the fields.  The latest crop conditions ratings from the USDA were glowing and aside from the possible development of a heat dome the weather right now is not threatening to the crop as there are several opportunities for continued widespread rainfall. So in other words the forecast the market bulls have been waiting for is still nowhere to be seen. In addition there has been talk out of Washington that there may be new restrictions placed on Chinese investments in the U.S. This type of action from the U.S. will likely spark additional retribution from Chinese leaders. AgroConsult recently completed a crop tour across Brazil’s 4 largest corn producing states. Following the tour the group has reduced their May corn yield estimate of 57 million tons down to 55.2 million tons, these figures are down sharply from the 67.3 million tons grown in 2016/17.  This reduction in yield estimates is due to planting delays and prolonged drought conditions in a widespread region of the country. The USDA will announce their much anticipated June Acreage and Stocks in all Positions Reports this Friday, June 29th.  The graph below includes the average trade estimate, range of trade estimates and actual figures from the June 2017 report for comparison. ... view details

Tariffs, Crop Progress and Weather Outlooks - Jun, 20 June 2018
Update for June 20th, 2018 Right now U.S. exports face their largest uncertainty from new Chinese tariffs.  The very first item specified on the Chinese list of U.S. exports to face these new tariffs is soybeans which are then followed by, corn, milo wheat, and fresh and frozen beef. The list of goods is over 100 items long and is hitting rural America first and hard. At current price levels the U.S. holds an advantage over other soybean exporters into China.  The month of August shows a 20 cent advantage and September has a 40 advantage.  Hopefully this will help the U.S. secure late summer soybean sales. The Trump administration is working to negotiation better trade deals with key importers of U.S. products.  The hope is that this will secure export demand and improve access to the global market for U.S. farmers for the long term.  The Iowa Farm Bureau Spokesman reported that Gregg Doud, chief agricultural negotiator for U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) recently visited Iowa and held a round table discussion with Iowa governor Kim Reynolds, Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig and representatives of Ag groups from across the state.  Doud, who grew up on a farm in Kansas, told the group that he understands and appreciates that farmers are nervous, “but we want to get this right for the long term”. Doud explained that the problems they are working to repair are complex, entrenched and will take time to fix. ... view details

WASDE Update and Weekend Heat - Jun, 15 June 2018
Update for June 15th, 2018 The June WASDE report from the USDA was released on Tuesday.  Some of the important numbers to consider: Estimated U.S. corn yield was left unchanged at 174.0 bushels per acres. Exports for old-crop corn supplies were increased by +75 million bushels. New crop corn used for ethanol was raised by +50 million bushels which off-sets the -50 million bushel loss in food, seed and industrial purposes. New crop corn used for Feed and Residual was reduced by -25 million bushels. Ending stocks for new crop corn was lowered by -105 million bushels from 1.682 to 1.577 billion bushels. Ending stocks for old crop corn was reduced by -80 million bushels from 2.182 to 2.102 billion bushels. Argentine corn production was left at 33 MMT Brazil corn production was also lowered from 87 MMT to 85 MMT. Corn production from Russia is reduced based on government data showing less acres planted than previously expected. U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged at 48 bushels per acres. Old crop soybeans used for crush was increased by +25 million bushels, new crop used for crush were also raised by +5 million bushels to 2.0 billion. Soybean exports were left unchanged. Soybean ending stocks for new crop was reduced by -30 million bushels from 415 to 385 million bushels. Old crop supplies were lowered by -25 million bushels from 530 down to 503 million bushels. Argentine soybean production was lowered from 39 to 37 MMT. Brazil soybean production was increased again from 117 to 119 MMT. This also raises estimated soybean exports for the country for both 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years. The average U.S. farm price was left unchanged within a range of $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel. ... view details

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