Acreage Outlook for 2019 and A Wet Forecast - Sep, 18 September 2018
Update for September 18th, 2018 Corn prices have now reached fresh new contract lows. Several negative factors have all come together at the same time to bring prices to this level: The U.S. corn yield is expected to reach an all-time new record. Fears that the current trade battle with China may continue for several months. The expected large increase in the number of U.S. corn acres producers are forecast to plant in 2019.  Informa Economics IEG is projecting that acres planted to corn will increase by 4.4% jumping acres planted to corn in 2019 to 93.044 million. Fortunately demand has remained extremely strong for corn and that demand is expected to continue.  There was also a report that earlier this week many end-users of both corn and soybeans appear to have started purchasing larger quantities of both products which could help stabilize the rising basis levels. Several news sources reported earlier this week that Green Plains was planning to close a couple of ethanol plants in north central Iowa. However, in an updated article from Reuters Green Plains CEO Todd Becker has informed the media that the company has not shut down any of their ethanol plants. He noted that they will be flexing production up and down which is very common and will begin their annual fall maintenance shutdown where most if not all plants typically shut down for 2 to 4 days. ... view details

USDA Report Summary, Florence and Soybean Market Outlook - Sep, 13 September 2018
Update for September 13th, 2018 USDA unexpectedly increased their projected corn yield to a new record 181.3 bushels per acre an increase of 2.9 bushels from the August report. This adds an additional +241 million bushels to the total production which now is forecast to reach 14.827 billion bushels. The good news is that demand continues to remain strong and is growing. Exports as well as Feed and Residual were each raised by +50 million bushels and ethanol usage was increased by +25 million bushels. Total ending stocks were increased by +90 million bushels to 1.774 billion bushels. The season-average price to producers is projected to fall by a dime with a midpoint of $3.50 a bushel. Soybeans also saw an increase in the expected average national yield from 51.6 bushels per acre last month to 52.8 now in the September report. This added an additional 107 million bushels to total production. Soybean exports were left unchanged while domestic crush demand was increased by +10 million bushels.  Total ending stocks were increased by +60 million bushels from 785 million bushels to an incredibly high 845 million bushels. The 2018/19 season-average soybean price is expected to range between $7.35 and $9.85 per bushel a decrease of $0.30 at the midpoint. ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet and Weather Update - Sep, 07 September 2018
Update for September 7th, 2018   Next week on Wednesday, September 12th the USDA will issue their next supply and demand forecast. As usual various trading companies have been announcing their yield estimates prior to the USDA announcement a couple are listed here: ALLENDALE INC. estimates the 2018 corn yield at 177.7 bushels per acre putting total production at 14.529 billion bushels. These totals are -0.7 bushels per acre and 57 million bushels lower than the USDA August numbers. For soybeans Allendale estimates the yield this year at 52.2 bushels per acre and total production of 4.636 billion bushels. This is +0.6 bushel per acre increase and a 50 million bushel bump in production above the USDA’s estimate. INTL FCStone also estimates the 2018 corn yield at 177.7 bushels per acre which is a -0.4 bushel per acre drop from their August estimate. This adjustment moves their total production estimate to 14.532 billion bushels, 54 million bushels below the USDA August estimate. Their soybean outlook improved from last month with September’s estimate at 53.8 bushels per acre with total production of 4.782 billion bushels, this is close to 200 million bushels more than the USDA August estimate. INFORMA in their latest estimates have set the national corn average at 178.8 bushels per acre with total production of 14.6 billion bushels. They see the U.S. soybean yield averaging 52.9 bushels per acre bringing total soy production to 4.7 billion bushels. ** IMPORTANT NOTE- If the trade were to see a yield reduction of -0.4 bushels per acre it would lower the stocks to use ratio to near 11%.  If you look at past history as a guide it would lead us to believe corn futures are undervalued by $0.40. Analysts are generally in agreement that the national corn yield will see a slight decline in next week’s report while soybean yields are expected to increase. ... view details

New NAFTA and MFP Details - Aug, 29 August 2018
Update for August 29th, 2018 NAFTA as we knew it to be in the past has ended thanks to a new U.S. and Mexico Trade Agreement.  According to the Wall Street Journal the U.S. and Mexico announced that an agreement had been reached on the key issues between the two countries but still requires the approval of both the U.S. and Mexican legislatures to be finalized. This week the top trade negotiator for Canada arrived in Washington and has joined in meetings to work on remaining part of a trilateral North American trade pact.  ... view details

Update for August 24th, 2018 - Aug, 24 August 2018
Update for August 24th, 2018   Trade talks have been ongoing this week in Washington between Chinese vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen and U.S. Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass.  President Trump has stated, “he doesn’t expect much progress” from the talks but instead the discussions are aimed at helping facilitate a possible resolution in November when President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet for multilateral talks. ... view details

USDA Report Wrap-Up - Aug, 15 August 2018
Update for August 15, 2018   Last Friday the USDA delivered an even bigger bearish report than most traders had anticipated. The biggest surprise came in the soybean yield estimate where yields were raised by 3.1 bushels per acre, a 2.0 bushel per acre increase over what the trade had expected. The corn yield also saw an increase in the August estimate. Given the current figures the projected season-average price for producers for corn is down .20 cents at the midpoint at a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018-19 is now estimated at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint which is .35 cents lower than a month ago. ... view details

USDA WASDE Worksheet and Weather Outlooks - Aug, 09 August 2018
Update for August 9th, 2018 The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand WASDE report tomorrow. This will be the first crop report with the new release procedure which means news services will now have access to the crop report data in the same way the general public does, from the USDA website. Previously the news services were given the data just prior to the 11:00 a.m. CST release time. There is some concern that this added traffic on the USDA website may cause the website to crash. The August report is a significant one because it gives us the first yield estimates that include USDA staff field surveys. Historically this report moves corn an average of + or - 10 cents and soybeans an average of + or - 20 cents on the report release day. ... view details

Yield Outlook & Trade - Aug, 03 August 2018
Update for August 3rd, 2018 Prices have varied widely this week as reports out of Washington offer promise and then not and as yields, crop conditions and weather remain unknown as well. There are a wide range of corn yield estimates being reported this season by scouts these figures are running anywhere from a low of 164 bushels per acre to a high of 184 bushels per acre. It’s too soon to know for sure but some forecasts point towards drier conditions and temps turning a bit hotter than previously forecast through the Midwest during the first couple weeks of August. (older maps shown in weather section below with cooler and wetter outlooks) Exports remain strong and ahead of last year’s numbers partially thanks to production issues in parts of the EU and shipping problems in South America. Demand for ethanol remains high as well and we have a massive livestock herd in the U.S.  providing strong demand for corn. The USDA left the weekly crop conditions overall Good to Excellent corn crop rating at 72% for the 3rd consecutive week. One interesting thing to note in this week’s rating is several of the top corn producing states saw conditions deteriorate while other states saw conditions improve…how will that correlate to bushels? ... view details

Farm Aid Package and Latest on Trade - Jul, 27 July 2018
Update for July 27th, 2018 President Trump has authorized a $12 billion Farm Aid package intended to relieve the financial stress caused from declining agricultural commodity prices caused by trade and tariff issues. To help compensate producer’s U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue announced that the USDA is prepared to take action in the form of 3 different programs each designed to assist farmers until the trade tariff negotiations can be worked through. The 3 different parts to the program are as follows:  The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act is expected to be administrated by Farm Service Agency (FSA) and will deliver scheduled payments to the producers of soybeans, sorghum, corn and wheat. The USDA will also use the CCC Charter Act as well as additional authorities to execute a Food Purchase and Distribution Program through the Agricultural Marketing service.  The purpose of this is to purchase any surpluses of products such as beef, pork, milk, rice, legumes, nuts and fruits for distribution to food banks and various other nutrition programs. The Trade Protection Program is part of the CCC’s Charter Act and will be used for the purpose of helping the U.S. develop new export markets around the world for our farm products.  This portion of the assistance program will be administrated through the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). ... view details

Impact of Chinese Tariffs, USDA Report Worksheet & Crop Update - Jul, 17 July 2018
Update for July 17th, 2018   Last week the USDA released their July numbers. Prior to the report the agency had signaled that they were planning to adjust for the new Chinese tariffs against U.S. crop exports in this July report which many assumed would send another shock to prices.  The market was relieved when world carryover stocks and U.S. stocks were basically left unchanged in the data. It’s expected that the world carryout for corn next year will be down 40.0 million tons from the stocks on August 31, 2018; soybean stocks are predicted to increase by 2.25 million tons which is far less than some had feared. ... view details

Update for July 12th, 2018 - Jul, 12 July 2018
Update for July 12th, 2018 Later this morning the USDA will release the July WASDE report. Traders are expecting an increase in corn, soybean and wheat carryout compared to the last report. In the past 10 years the USDA has only reduced corn yields 2 times, those years being 2008-09 and 2012-13.  The remaining 8 years saw no change from the June estimate. The higher yield expected by the trade shows the confidence traders have in the highly rated crop conditions and the improved seed genetics which they feel deserve bigger yield estimates for this July report. ... view details

USDA Report, Tariffs vs the Family Farm and Weather Forecast - Jul, 03 July 2018
Update for July 3rd, 2018 For the first time in 35 years soybean acres in the U.S. will surpass corn acres.  According to an article from Bloomberg, growers across the country planted 89.557 million acres of soybeans and 89.128 million corn acres which according data released last Friday is the most valuable U.S. crop. Corn acres were a bit above recent estimates while soybean acres were slightly lower than expected. The Quarterly Stocks Estimate found close to 40 million more bushels of corn than previously thought, soybean totals came in where expected. The total acreage of the 8 major U.S. crops which include corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, sorghum, oats, rice and barley totaled 254.3 million. This is up from the March estimate of 251.3 million and last year’s acreage of 252.1 million acres. Below is the worksheet showing the data from last Fridays USDA crop reports. ... view details

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