News
December USDA Report - Dec, 13 December 2017
The December USDA WASDE report was released yesterday as were the CONAB numbers on Brazilian production. The balance sheet for corn was reduced by -50 million bushels due to a +50 million increase in corn used for ethanol.  Chinese and EU corn crops were raised as was the global supply number. The soybean balance sheet saw an increase from 425 to 445 million bushels.  This adjustment came as a result of a -25 million bushels reduction in exports and a +5 million increase in seed. No changes were made to South American production. Exports from Argentina were increased from 8.0 to 8.5 MMT, Brazil exports were also raised from 65.0 to 65.5 MMT. Overall Chinese soybean imports were left unchanged and the global supply number was increased. ... view details

NAFTA & The South American Crop - Dec, 07 December 2017
Cooling water temps in the tropical Pacific Ocean are prompting weather agencies across the globe to monitor the developing La Nina weather pattern.  This pattern can be difficult to predict and causes a variety of growing conditions.  One of the most memorable for us in the U.S. is the La Nina of 2012 that caused prices to sky-rocket.  Current climate models are suggesting the pattern may be short-lived, lasting into early spring in the northern hemisphere. However, with the enormous supply levels available in the world right now it would be premature to assume we would see a rally of that magnitude even if the weather pattern lasted into the U.S. growing season. ... view details

USDA's 2018 Outlook and Huge Weather Pattern Change Coming - Nov, 29 November 2017
The USDA has forecast their expectations for 2018.  They are predicting producers will plant 91.0 million acres of corn in 2018, this is up slightly from 90.4 million acres this year.  The initial yield forecast for 2018 is currently set at 173.5 bushels per acre, this compares to the 2017 yield of 175.4 and 2016 yield of 174.6 bushels per acre. Using these yield and acreage estimates for 2018, total production would be close to 14.5 billion bushels and would bump ending stocks a little higher to 2.6 billion bushels. These are very early estimates and are likely to be adjusted with changes in weather outlooks and shifts in demand. The agency will announce their Agricultural Projections through 2027 in February of 2018.  ... view details

Ag Headlines and Forecasts for Thanksgiving and Beyond - Nov, 21 November 2017
Typically there is a seasonal tendency for corn to find the bottom of the market during late November to early December. Recent sales to China and weather concerns in Argentina are now prompting some traders to move to the sidelines and take their profits. With the Christmas and New Year’s holidays quickly approaching it’s possible that many of them will stay out of the market to see what the weather does across South America before re-entering the market. ... view details

Recent USDA Report Worksheet and China Visit - Nov, 15 November 2017
The highest corn yield in U.S. history is now predicted by the USDA following last week’s report that showed an incredible +3.6 bushel per acre increase from previous estimates.  This now raises the USDA corn yield from 171.8 bushels per acre to 175.4 bushels per acre and brings production up to 14.578 billion bushels.  The report increases the expected bushels used for feed and residual as well as raising export demand by +75 million bushels unfortunately these gains are still not enough to offset the yield increase. ... view details

Tax Reform and What It May Mean For Rural America - Nov, 08 November 2017
The Funds are holding more record short corn positions than in almost any time in history.  With the November USDA report due out tomorrow there has been some hope that a portion of those positions will be bought back especially in light of the recent rally in crude oil prices. The rally in crude is good news for corn producers who are faced with cheap prices and an ethanol industry that many thought would likely need to reduce production levels by the 4th quarter of this year.  Now the USDA has a reason to look further at their current estimate for corn used for ethanol which some believe may be 75 to 125 million bushels too low given this recent development. ... view details

Ethanol Update and Harvest Progress - Nov, 02 November 2017
Latest data from the USDA continues to show the U.S. corn harvest is running behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress advanced by +16% last week to 54% completed this compares to our 5 year average of 72% completed by this time. Next week the USDA updates their yield estimates for the November report.  Many traders believe that private analysts and the USDA will all move the estimated yield a bit higher.  Yesterday INTL FC Stone moved their yield estimate higher from 169.2 to 173.7 bushels per acre and total production of 14.4 billion bushels. Informa is expected to release their latest estimates today. ... view details

Latest on the RFS & Slow Harvest Pace - Oct, 27 October 2017
Weather delays are causing crops to remain in the fields considerably longer than normal.  The slow harvest is bringing with it quality concerns and lower yields.  The weekly USDA report showed the U.S. corn harvest only advanced +10% from the previous week to 38% vs the normal 5-year pace of 59% completed by this date. It seems as though soybean yields in the majority of recently harvested fields has been dropping off when compared to yields reported initially.  Some analysts feel that this may cause an overall decrease in total production and in future supply and demand reports. While this is possible it is not probable since early yields are likely high enough to off-set these later yields. ... view details

Harvest Progress, NAFTA and Weather Outlooks - Oct, 18 October 2017
Harvest progress is running behind average especially in several of the top producing states.  This is true for both corn and soybean crops but is particularly noticeable when comparing corn progress to previous years.  Here are just a few: CORN Minnesota 3-7% harvested vs 5 year average of 38% Iowa 5-13% harvested vs 5 year average of 41% South Dakota 6-12% harvested vs 5 year average of 39% Nebraska 4-17% harvested vs 5 year average of 39% Illinois 9-47% harvested vs 5 year average of 64% Indiana 10-34% harvested vs 5 year average of 46% Ohio 8-21% harvested vs 5 year average of 32% North Dakota 4-8% harvested vs 5 year average of 29% ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet and NAFTA Negotiations - Oct, 11 October 2017
All season there has been debate regarding the size of the U.S. crop.  Right now the USDA has a corn yield estimate of 169.9 bushels per acre, which would actually be the 3rd highest average of all time.  Seems hard to believe but many reports, coming in from producers that have harvested some corn acres, indicate yields are surpassing many of their expectations. While this 2017 crop is not a record yield for many producers the consensus so far is that it may be in one of their top 5.  ... view details

Farm Program Payments and News out of China - Oct, 05 October 2017
The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, announced that over $9.6 billion in payments to producers will be begin this week.  Producers that signed up for either the ARC or PLC will begin to receive approximately $8 billion in payments for the 2016 crop year while those enrolled in CRP will share $1.6 billion in payments.  The producers that enrolled base acres of barley, corn, grain sorghum, lentils, oats, peanuts, dry peas, soybeans, wheat and canola will be receiving their payments now while other covered commodities will receive their payments in the upcoming months. Ethanol production remains strong but with the advancement of electric vehicles there is a lot of discussion regarding the long-term effect these alternative energy vehicles may have on the market.  There are those close to the subject that believe, “ethanol is imbedded so deep in our nation it will never go away” while others say, “it will become a thing of the past in less than 10 years”.  An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) by the name of Global X Lithium Battery Tech has seen tremendous growth in 2017. This fund has expanded by more than 50% this year with investments of $451.5 million raising its assets to $676.8 million. Let’s hope that there is still plenty of room for the ethanol industry if this market continues to grow. ... view details

Barge Movement Slowed and Favorable Harvest Weather Outlook - Sep, 28 September 2017
The long range forecasts are indicating producers may have a cooperative stretch of weather on the way for harvest this season.  This is good news for field work but the lack of precipitation is troublesome for transit issues that have arisen this year.   Low water levels on some of the major rivers in the U.S. has reduced barge movement and the amount of inventory the barges can transport.  The timing of this couldn’t have come at a worse time with harvest underway.  With inventories building the less efficient and more expensive rail system will need to be used to help relieve some of what the barges are unable to carry.  Concern has also been increasing over demand for both corn and soybeans.  While soybean exports to China are up 16% for the year we still are running far behind Brazil which has exported 37 MMT this year to the Chinese, nearly double that of the U.S. Analysts look for the lack of robust exports and current supply levels of U.S. crops to keep a lid on prices this fall regardless of what yields do. ... view details

Brazil producers expected to cut corn acres - Sep, 22 September 2017
News that is gathering some attention: With current prices vs input costs soybeans return $120/acre over corn. Corn harvested on dryland in Nebraska has been breaking yield records with averages between 180-200 bushels per acre. China harvest to begin in 2 weeks. Brazil exports 105% of last year. Funds are short 121,000 corn contracts but are even on soybeans. Soybean exports have been increasing. Brazil sees heat continue but rain is in forecast. Reports shows overall higher soybean yields than expected. High probability of La Niña developing this year which brings concern especially for areas that are already dry. No immediate threat is in the forecast but the trade is continuing to monitor any talk of frost particularly in regions where crop maturity has been slow. ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet and Yield Comparison by State - Sep, 14 September 2017
The recent USDA WASDE report brought on more debate regarding yield estimates for corn and soybeans and total production numbers.  The USDA raised soybean yields on the reports of record pod weights a high corn production number was based on elevated yields in fringe states which they believe will off-set yield losses in other areas.  The agency also is questioning the usage numbers for residual and corn used for ethanol. Many traders are not paying close attention to these recent numbers many are focusing on final yield data.  When looking back at the September report from the past 2 years the corn and soybean yields increased from the September estimates to the final yield.  This yield gain was due to favorable weather during this phase of the growing season which aided in the yield increase the past 2 years.  This year though the high variability in the crop and late season conditions that have not been as favorable have most analysts convinced we will not see yields increase between the September report and the final yield numbers. ... view details

Weather and Frost Dates for U.S. - Sep, 08 September 2017
Weather forecasts for frost in the Upper Plains…Minnesota and the Dakota’s gained the attention of the trade early this week.  Forecasters are not predicting a killing frost so the overall effect on the crops may not be devastating but considering the slower than normal development of this year’s crop any unfavorable forecast catches the attention of the market. We also need to keep an eye on the path Hurricane Irma ultimately takes later this week/weekend.  Several forecasts have Irma hitting the Florida Keys and then moving northward, some show the storm veering off the the east coast of Florida and impacting the Carolina’s.  If this scenario develops 150 million bushels of corn and 75 million bushels of soybean production in these states could be effected. ... view details

Cool Forecast for September and Market Headlines - Aug, 30 August 2017
Conflicting headlines and crop condition reports have the markets nervous. Better than expected crop ratings and estimated yields have been pressuring prices but headlines of another round of export sales for both corn and soybeans added some stability. Mexico has placed an order for new-crop corn for 2017-18 delivery.  Exports to Mexico have been a major concern with ongoing NAFTA renegotiations and renewed talk of a the U.S. building a “wall” between our nation’s but so far Mexico has not been deterred in their purchases of U.S. products.   It’s believed that the USDA is overestimating the demand for old-crop corn by 100 million bushels, these bushels as not likely to have much impact on our stocks but it will reduce the effect of a lower yield this season on the balance sheets causing prices to continue in a sideways pattern.  ... view details

Midwest Crop Tour and Weather Outlooks - Aug, 25 August 2017
Following the USDA report and this week’s crop tour the trade is realizing that this year’s corn and soybean crops are not as bad as previously thought.  While yields are expected to be lower than a year ago the reduction is not low enough to cause any supply concerns. Recent rainfall has brought much needed relief to dry area’s and is adding additional pressure to market prices.  The market really needs fresh news to move prices higher and at this point there really is no big story out there to do that.  There has been some discussion about an early frost in mid-September but those predictions have not gained much support, at least not as of yet.  A few of the headlines that the trade is watching: ... view details

Green Report Maps and Weekly vs Monthly Reports - Aug, 18 August 2017
The USDA delivered a bearish report last week to both corn and soybeans.  The agency raised soybean yield estimates to 49.4 bushels per acre and are expecting a record production year with current estimates up +2% over last year’s record yield .  Corn estimates fell slightly from 170.7 bushels per acre to 169.5 but still above trade estimates.  The corn estimate is only -2.9% less than the record last year, this would make 2017 the third largest yield and crop ever produced! The trade had expected the USDA to report estimated corn yields between 164 to 166 bushels per acre which would potentially drop ending stocks to somewhere between 1.7 and 1.9 billion bushels given current usage levels.  Ending stocks at this level would likely not greatly impact markets this year or the following year but any kind of production issues could lead to a rationing scenario in 2019, according to Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report. The annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins next week, daily and final results will certainly be watched closely to see if results from the tour help support the recent USDA yield estimates or adds more fuel to the yield controversy.   ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet and Thoughts Regarding A Recent Ag Trade Mission to China - Aug, 08 August 2017
The crop ratings report this week for corn showed a further decline of 1% bringing the total to 60% Good to Excellent. Harvest has begun with Texas reporting 31% complete and Louisiana is 30% harvested which is ahead of the average pace for this point of the season. Corn in Colorado and Illinois posted the biggest losses this week: Colorado fell by -8% to 58% GD/EX vs 82% a year ago and Illinois lost -5% bringing them to 58% GD/EX vs 83% just last year. Some of the other notable states from this week’s crop conditions report: Indiana improved this week by +3% to 52% GD/EX vs 73% last year North Dakota increased by +1% to 40% GD/EX vs 80% a year ago Iowa saw further declines, now at 64% falling -1% in GD/EX vs 83% last year Minnesota fell by 1% to 80% vs 85% GD/EX last year ... view details

Crop Condition Comparisons and A Taste of Fall Temps - Aug, 04 August 2017
The USDA once again lowered the overall percentage of the nation’s corn crop rated as Good to Excellent to 61%. In the U.S. the 4 largest corn producing states are known as the Big-Four, this year all 4 of these states have a lower crop condition rating than 1 year ago.  The Big Four, along with other states with notable differences in Good to Excellent ratings from a year ago are listed:   Big Four Iowa currently sits at 65% GD/EX vs 83% last year Illinois currently sits at 63% vs 83% last year Minnesota currently sits at 81% vs 85% last year Nebraska currently sits at 61% vs 77% last year ... view details

Crop Condition Comparisons and Yield Estimates - Jul, 27 July 2017
Informa has updated and reduced their forecast for U.S. corn production by -287 million bushels to 13.9 billion bushels which is -1.3 billion lower than a year ago.  This is a result of an overall decrease in expected yield for 2017.  Earlier in the growing season the group forecast a national average yield of 169.7 bushels per acre and have now lowered that expectation to 166.2 which is -8.4 bushels lower than the record hit last season. An El Niño weather system is still in control of the weather patterns in the U.S. This particular system is slightly different than typical El Niño patterns because it continuously strengthens and then weakens. In previous seasons when such a pattern has been present the corn yields have tended to run approximately -8% below trend which would bring the U.S. to a 161 per bushel average this year, just below current trade estimates.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report also agrees that the overall potential corn yield has been reduced and doubts that the USDA projected yield of 170 bushels per acre is accurate any longer for this season, “I’ve said for several weeks, this crop looks much closer to a 160 type yield than the 170 the USDA has forecast.  I also believe we’ve seen the highest estimate for “harvested acres” which eventually could work their way lower, meaning perhaps sub -13.5 billion in total U.S. production…The bears continue to argue that even if U.S. production tips back to the 160 to 163 area, there is still plenty of excess ending stock and that U.S. demand might soon run into stiffer headwinds as both Argentina and Brazil are flush with record inventory.” Van Trump advises producers to keep in mind that even if we end with a final U.S. average yield near 160 it might not push corn prices much above $4.30 to $4.40 per bushel.Informa has updated and reduced their forecast for U.S. corn production by -287 million bushels to 13.9 billion bushels which is -1.3 billion lower than a year ago.  This is a result of an overall decrease in expected yield for 2017.  Earlier in the growing season the group forecast a national average yield of 169.7 bushels per acre and have now lowered that expectation to 166.2 which is -8.4 bushels lower than the record hit last season. An El Niño weather system is still in control of the weather patterns in the U.S. This particular system is slightly different than typical El Niño patterns because it continuously strengthens and then weakens. In previous seasons when such a pattern has been present the corn yields have tended to run approximately -8% below trend which would bring the U.S. to a 161 per bushel average this year, just below current trade estimates.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report also agrees that the overall potential corn yield has been reduced and doubts that the USDA projected yield of 170 bushels per acre is accurate any longer for this season, “I’ve said for several weeks, this crop looks much closer to a 160 type yield than the 170 the USDA has forecast.  I also believe we’ve seen the highest estimate for “harvested acres” which eventually could work their way lower, meaning perhaps sub -13.5 billion in total U.S. production…The bears continue to argue that even if U.S. production tips back to the 160 to 163 area, there is still plenty of excess ending stock and that U.S. demand might soon run into stiffer headwinds as both Argentina and Brazil are flush with record inventory.” Van Trump advises producers to keep in mind that even if we end with a final U.S. average yield near 160 it might not push corn prices much above $4.30 to $4.40 per bushel. ... view details

USDA and Drought Update - Jul, 17 July 2017
The July 12th, USDA report sent prices lower with bearish data.  Corn The expected corn yield was left unchanged at 170.7 bushels per acre Harvested acres were increased from 82.4 to 83.5 million acres Total production was raised along with new ending stocks Ethanol and exports were unchanged Average corn price to producers was lowered by $-.10 for a range of $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel Soybeans Exports and crush numbers were unchanged Harvested acres were increased slightly Old crop stocks were lowered by -40 million bushels and new crop stocks were also lowered from .495 to .460 billion bushels Average soybean price to producers was raised by $+.10 for an undated range of $8.40 to $10.40 per bushel ... view details

Breakdown of Crop Conditions - Jul, 12 July 2017
The USDA adjusted their weekly corn crop conditions report this week from 68% Good to Excellent a week ago down to 65%.  This compares to last year’s 76% GD/EX rating at this time. The crop maturity is also running behind last year when 30% of the nation’s crop was silking, this year only 19% is silking which is also well behind the 5-year average of 27%.  The importance of this is that it appears as though a large portion of the corn crop will be pollinating during extreme heat, temps in some areas are expected to reach triple digits! The USDA will release the July Supply and Demand report today, according to Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report, “Generally the USDA does not like to make a major yield adjustment in the July report, but with weather this extreme in some locations there’s a chance they could adjust production lower ahead of the August farmers survey’s.”  He also cautions producers to consider reducing risk at profitable levels and not to try to predict the high in any weather fueled market.  Van Trump’s report also broke down the numbers from this week’s crop conditions report, he found that states that are reporting conditions better than last year account for 9.35 million planted acres, 74.3 million planted acres are found in states with conditions that are worse than a year ago.  ... view details

Market Highlights and Weather Outlooks - Jul, 07 July 2017
Many traders had been expecting to see a reduction in the overall Good to Excellent ratings for corn this week and instead saw the rating raised 1 point higher to 68% from the previous week. The uncertainty surrounding corn demand has weighed on market prices for a long time.  This week Egypt announced that that they will be reducing imports due to better production than expected in their country last year, this brings into question the entire global demand for corn for the near future.  China has been working to reduce their corn inventory and have been using their domestically grown corn for ethanol production.  This strategy has been working well for the country as they have now become a net exporter of ethanol instead of an importer.  While the volume of ethanol exported has not been substantial to this point the volume is expected to increase.  What impact this will have on U.S. ethanol is unknown at this time but there is little doubt that it will create some competition in the market. Some of the other headlines driving the markets: ... view details

USDA Worksheet and A Heat Ridge is Building - Jun, 29 June 2017
Pre-report short covering has developed in the market this morning in advance of tomorrow’s quarterly stocks data.  These reports have a tendency to create volatility and large price swings, a limit price move would not surprising.  Over the past 10 years this report has generated lower corn futures prices 6 times and higher prices 4 times, soybeans have seen higher prices 8 of those years and lower prices 2 times. A lot of the attention for tomorrow’s reports has been centered around acreage numbers and many analysts are not ruling out the possibility of an adjustment in the stocks number.  In addition, recent weather models are indicating a change may be in store in the near future that will add stress to crops that are already behind or damaged which is also gaining the attention of traders. At this point the trade appears to be expecting to find 500,000 to 1 million fewer planted corn acres and more soybean acres than the March report.  Unfortunately, the market reaction to this news may be moderated by the higher stocks numbers that the trade is currently anticipating in tomorrow’s report. ... view details

Crop Conditions and Short and Long Term Weather Outlooks - Jun, 21 June 2017
Some relief was provided this weekend as rainfall of ½ to 1 inch fell across much of the Western Corn Belt including the Dakota’s, Minnesota and Iowa. This has assisted some crop ratings for corn and soybeans to hold steady or improve from the ratings of a week ago.  The USDA corn crop conditions report this week left the overall Good to Excellent rating unchanged from last week at 67% vs 75% one year ago. While the overall rating remained steady from one week ago, 11 states showed improvement, 3 states were unchanged and 4 states had conditions decline. ... view details

Crop Rating Comparisons and NAFTA - Jun, 14 June 2017
Only 2 times in our history has the national average yield been above 170 bushels.  Early this year the USDA estimated producers in the U.S. would average 170.7 bushels per acre and have not made any adjustments to this estimate as of yet.  The USDA also has the new-crop ending stocks forecasted at over 2.1 billion bushels, an amount many in the industry believe is exaggerated.  Like always the weather is in the driver’s seat and based on overall production the states listed below are the areas being watched most closely and they are: ... view details

Weather & Crop Conditions - Jun, 07 June 2017
The weather is beginning to take center stage. Dry conditions across the Plains and particularly in the Dakota’s are beginning to impact crops and market prices.  Advances in prices have been limited though, due in part to the fact that the U.S. is already one of the highest priced sources in the global market at this time.  In addition, many local grain buyers have been increasing their basis which is also limiting the benefits available to producers. Dry conditions are expected to remain in place over a large portion of the western Corn Belt, some of these areas haven’t seen rainfall for over two weeks.  It is much too early to get overly concerned about the lack of rainfall but if it continues over the next few weeks the markets are likely to take further notice.   ... view details

USDA Reports and Comparison Charts - May, 31 May 2017
There has already been lots of information out of the USDA this week for the markets to sift through.  Yesterday we received the weekly planting progress report as well as the first of the season corn conditions report.  The planting progress report this week indicated that as of Sunday 91% of the nation’s corn is now planted (it is unclear whether or not this includes acres that still need to be replanted or not).   ... view details

Corn Price Range & Weather Outlook - May, 26 May 2017
Markets will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday and will be quickly influenced by the first USDA look at the nation’s corn crop-conditions report on Tuesday.  Important weather issues that the trade will be watching over the long weekend will be the rainfall totals in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and Missouri and low temps in the northern Corn Belt.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report shared insight from one of his dependable sources located in the eastern Corn Belt in his newsletter today. “As I passed on to you a few weeks ago, the area for replant in the eastern belt is huge.  Early estimates back then were that 15% would need re-planted, but many guys are talking higher than that now.  And some will simply go to beans where able due to herbicides….I can assure you the top is off in the east and the results won’t be known until the late-summer or fall reports with no confirmation until January.” ... view details

Comparing Planting Pace to Yields and Cool Weather Continues - May, 17 May 2017
The new Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue is scheduled today to appear before the House Agriculture Committee to discuss the current, “State of the Rural Economy”.  This meeting is expected to give the committee important insight regarding the 50% decline in farm income over the past 4 years and give Perdue the opportunity to give his perspective on what is needed in the 2018 Farm Bill. Corn exports have been strong this year so why haven’t we seen even larger exports given our current supply levels and low prices? The reason this is the case has to do with the fact that the U.S. has spent several years developing an ethanol program and in the process has lost a large volume of previously well-established customers. In the meantime those customers have found other suppliers making it difficult for the U.S. to regain this business.  ... view details

WASDE, Crop Progress and Weather - May, 10 May 2017
The newest Supply and Demand report from the USDA is shown below.  The agency is forecasting the corn yield this year at 170.7 bushels per acre, this compares with last year’s 174.6 bushel average.  Corn demand for seed, food and industrial uses is expected to rise +80 million bushels but exports are expected to fall by -350 million bushels due to an increase in exports out of Brazil and Argentina.  Corn used for feed and residual is also projected to fall by -75 million bushels from last year’s numbers.  The agency is forecasting the season-average price for corn at $3.00 - $3.80 per bushel which is mostly unchanged from earlier expectations. ... view details

Extreme Weather Update and USDA News - May, 02 May 2017
Extreme weather conditions are causing delays and in some areas fields that had been planted will need to be replanted.  In the hardest hit area’s producers are facing at a minumum of 1 to 2 week’s before planters can even begin to get back into the fields. Some weather forecasters are predicting another round of storms in the South and a continuation of below normal temps for much of the western and northern area’s of the country which will hamper soils from drying quickly. The corn market currently has very little risk premium built into the price and Funds are short a record amount of contracts.  These factors may increase the sensitivity of the market to weather forecasts compared to most years.  ... view details

Too Much Rain Expected to Continue and Ag Secretary Confirmed - Apr, 25 April 2017
The latest Commitment of Traders report showed that the Funds are holding larger short positions than the trade had thought.  The newest numbers show that they are short 189,000 corn contracts, 42,000 soybean contracts and 176,000 Chicago wheat contracts.  This combined total of short positions sets a new record.  The current cold and wet forecast which is predicted to slow planting progress is also viewed to be a potential “spark” which could ignite prices and a short-covering by the Funds. ... view details

Spring and Summer Forecast and Market News - Apr, 18 April 2017
The trade managed to move corn $0.11 ½ higher and soybeans $0.13 ½ higher last week. A few of the items contributing to this price bump: The positive meeting between President Trump and Chinese President XI a week ago which relieved a great deal of concern regarding a possible trade war with one of our largest customers.  Planting progress has been slowed by a wet weather pattern that appears to continue through this week.  This will become a negative to soybean prices if more corn acres start to switch to soybean acres due to wet soils. President Trump has made comments that he believes that the U.S. Dollar is too strong.  Weaker Dollar=more trade, Stronger Dollar=less trade. China’s economy is starting to improve. China is importing soybeans at record levels. ... view details

Latest WASDE Report and Trade with China - Apr, 11 April 2017
The debate has already started regarding wet conditions and the spring planting progress. The bulls of course are pointing to that fact that weather forecasters are calling for exceedingly wet conditions for some portions of the Corn Belt and perhaps as a result farmers may reduce their corn acres even beyond the -4 million expected.  As we all have learned though weather can change very quickly and producers can plant an enormous number of acres in a short amount of time if necessary.  For example in 2015 planting progress increased from just 19% to 55% in one week, so the rainfall that is frustrating producers and keeping them out of the fields now will continue to be viewed as beneficial by the markets bears for a while yet.  Currently planting progress shows an “average start” overall but the bigger producing states like Illinois and Kansas are off to a slow start.  Last year Illinois had 2% of the corn planted this year 1% with an average of 5%, Kansas had 15% in by this time and this year only 4% is planted with an average of 8%. ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet & Large Supplies of Corn Still on the Farm - Apr, 04 April 2017
The March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports were announced last Friday.  The trade had estimated corn acres prior to the report at 90.9 million acres, the USDA announced it looks for 89.996 million corn acres. This compares with 94 million corn acres planted in 2016. The trade is likely going to watch the planting progress very closely and is already beginning to question what kind of adjustments the USDA makes over the next several months. Research published by Advance Trading shows though that 8 out of the past 10 years the corn acreage number has actually increased between the March and June reports and has increased each of the past 4 years. On the flip-side of corn acres the quarterly stocks number which was a bit higher than what had been expected.  Soybean acres for 2017 were higher than the trade had thought, the USDA expects 89.482 million acres while the trade was looking for around 88.2 million. This compares with the 2016 soybean acreage of 83.433 million the quarterly stocks number was also negative to the soybean market. Soybean acres have also had a tendency to increase and has done so 7 times between the March and June reports. ... view details

Corn Prices at or Below the Cost of Production in Brazil & Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks - Mar, 30 March 2017
The March Planting intentions report will be publicized tomorrow and the trade has been debating the number of corn acres the agency will announce for quite some time.  It is difficult to second guess where the USDA number may be, last year the agency placed the planting intentions number +3.6 million acres higher than what the trade had been anticipating and in 2008 the agency’s estimate was -1.3 million acres less than expected. There is no argument regarding the Quarterly Stocks numbers, expectations are that the current supplies are likely to be record large at approximately +650 - +750 million bushels more than on March 1st, 2016.   ... view details

National Ag Day and Large Exit of Funds From Corn Market - Mar, 23 March 2017
There has been a large exit from the market by the Funds.  The CFTC reported on March 17th that the hedge funds and money managers had reduced their net long positions by -104,000 contracts, which is a very significant reduction in a weeks’ time. This sell-off moved them from a net long to a net short of 20,000 to 30,000 contracts.  Some of the optimistic members of the trade believe that this fall off gives investors ample opportunities to buy back into the market if U.S. weather looks unfavorable.  In general though, the weather has been cooperative in areas of the southern U.S. and early field work has been commencing. Large amounts of rainfall are expected across a wide portion of the nation’s mid-section from the end of this week through the weekend, most of which is currently viewed as beneficial moisture for the upcoming growing season.  There is a lot of speculation throughout the market place regarding corn acres for 2017, this will be a major focus for the trade as we approach next week’s USDA Planting Intentions report that is due out, Friday March 31st. ... view details

Early Corn Planting and Ag Group Meets to Discuss Trade - Mar, 17 March 2017
Corn prices have now lost all of their gains from 2017 and are now near price levels from the end of 2016.  A couple of main bearish points have been the principle drivers behind this setback.  First is the impressive recovery in the 2017 South American crop which is now estimated to be +30 MMT’s larger than a year ago.  The USDA raised their expectations for the Argentine corn crop from 36.5 to 37.5 MMT’s and Brazil’s from 86.5 to 91.5 MMT’s which all adds up more corn available for exports. The weather has also been a negative factor influencing corn prices since in some areas of the U.S. the weather is cooperating and allowing for early fieldwork in those regions. It’s hard to believe while we have snow on the ground here that corn is already beginning to emerge in the Deep South and early planting dates come into effect this week for Oklahoma, southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. The lack of weather issues has prompted Informa to raise their corn acre forecast a bit from 90.5 to 90.8 million acres and many in the trade also believe that the USDA will be increasing their corn acres as well. The reappearance of the Bird Flu and an increase in value of the U.S. Dollar are also adding to negativity in the marketplace.  ... view details

USDA Report Data and Discussion Begins On New 2018 Farm Bill - Mar, 10 March 2017
The data released by the USDA this week was a bit more negative than what had been anticipated for both corn and soybeans.  Much of the bearish news came as a result of better than anticipated production out of South America.  Corn Corn used for feed and residual usage was lowered by -50 million bushels Ethanol was increased by +50 million bushels The corn crop in Argentina was raised from 36.5 MMT to 37.5 MMT’s. Brazil’s corn crop was increased substantially from 86.5 MMT to 91.5MMT’s The global ending stocks also were increased by over +2 million tons. The estimated range for corn prices for producers was left unchanged at $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel. ... view details

Farm Income & Weather Outlook - Feb, 28 February 2017
The Ag Outlook Forum was held last week in Arlington, VA and produced a lot of important baseline data to be aware of.  Expectations for acres in 2017 were announced and in general met with previous guesstimates. Corn 90 million acres- this is down -4 million acres from last year. Soybeans 88 million acres-this is up over +4.5 million acres from 2016. I think it is noteworthy to point out that these baseline numbers have been lower than the March intentions report for the past 4 years in a row so don’t carve them in stone.  The forum also forecast a corn yield of 170.7 bushels per acre with a crop size of 14.06 billion bushels and ending stocks of 2.2 billion bushels.  The soybean yield is projected at 48 bushels per acre with a crop size of 4.18 billion bushels and a carryout of 420 million bushels ... view details

USDA Long-Term Projections and Winter Returns - Feb, 21 February 2017
The USDA has made long-term projections for 2016 through 2026 for the 8 major agriculture crops in the U.S.  (Corn, soybeans, wheat, upland cotton, sorghum, rice, barley and oats).  Total acres planted to the 8 major crops averaged 257 million acres during the peak of 2012-2014.  That number fell to 252 million in 2015 and then rallied back in 2016 but is expected to drop again to just under 245 million acres by 2026 with the majority of those lost expected to be corn acres.  Even though the planted acres are predicted to fall new seed hybrids keep yields reasonably high and deliver most of the gains needed to keep ample supplies. The average yield is estimated to fall in 2017 to 170.8 bushels per acre vs the 175.3 per acre average in 2016.  As the yield is calculated out 10 years to 2026 the average yield per acre increases to an estimated 188.8 bushels.  ... view details

U.S./Mexico Trade and Unseasonably Warm Weather - Feb, 16 February 2017
There have been several stories in the media recently regarding Mexico/U.S. trade relations.  Mexico is the 2nd largest importer of U.S. corn in the world today (Japan is our #1 customer) and Monday a bill was introduced by a Mexican senator, Armando Rios Piter that would end that relationship.  Piter would like to see Mexico discontinue all corn purchases originating from the U.S. and instead start buying corn from Brazil and Argentina.  Senator Pita from Mexico told CNN that, “this hostile relationship has consequences” he feels that this is would be a good way to send a message to the United States and President Trump.  Mexico is angry following President Trump’s threats of imposing a 20% tax on imports from countries that the U.S. has a trade deficit with and pulling the U.S. out of NAFTA.  U.S. corn is used in a lot of the food used in the country.  From fine dining in Mexico City to taco’s made with corn shells found everywhere in the country of Mexico. Before NAFTA was made law in 1994 the U.S. shipped corn valued at $391 million to Mexico, in 2015 American farmers sent $2.4 billion.  Darin Newsom, a senior analyst for DTN believes that, “If we do indeed see a trade war where Mexico starts buying corn from Brazil…we’re going to see it affect the corn market and ripple out to the rest of the Ag economy.” Bevan Everett, an analyst from FC Stone sees the situation differently and reported Tuesday that, “This proposal would have the net effect of sharply increasing the cost of corn for Mexico and its people while not ultimately hurting overall U.S. exports.” He bases his conclusions on two main points.  1st Mexico is not set up to receive corn via shipping through ports they are set up to get corn from the U.S. through the rail system. 2nd Brazil and Argentina do not have large supplies of excess corn to export their normal customers are already buying any exportable bushels. If Mexico were desperate enough to bid those bushels higher than “their normal trading partners then those trading partners, whom already do business with the USA would simply turn to the USA for those bushels.” All of this, in his opinion, would ultimately result in no net reduction in corn exports for the U.S.  President Trump plans to renegotiate NAFTA because he feels that the agreement is directly responsible for the surge of U.S. manufacturing jobs that have moved to Mexico since the agreement was enacted. Two weeks ago both countries agreed that they would sit down for negotiations sometime in May following a 90-day consultation period.  ... view details

USDA Report Worksheet and La Niña Is Over - Feb, 10 February 2017
The USDA announced the February Supply and Demand Report on Thursday, February 9, 2017. Corn: Ethanol usage was increased by +25 million bushels. Ending stocks lowered an additional -35 million bushels from a month ago. Corn used for food, seed and for industrial purposes is raised +10 million bushels. Production out of Argentina and Brazil is unchanged. Export estimates to Ukraine and Canada were increased. ... view details

Record High Ethanol Production and A Local Spring Forecast - Feb, 03 February 2017
Ethanol continues to be a shining star and is continuing to set new record high production numbers despite on-going negative headlines.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report wrote, “Many insiders are now in agreement that the USDA’s current corn used for ethanol estimate is once again too conservative and will need to be bumped higher. I should also point out that, even though many bears continue to point to an overall building of our ethanol surplus, total ethanol supplies are still about -2% below last year’s level.  I should also note that exports remain extremely strong, meaning overall strong domestic demand continues to be difficult for the bears to debate.  Bottom-line, it feels like the U.S. balance sheet is going to be getting tighter on increased demand.” ... view details

What Is TPP and Strong Ethanol Exports - Jan, 27 January 2017
Ethanol exports out of the U.S. have continued to show strength during the first quarter of the year.  For the start of the 2016-17 marketing year these exports are up 85% and are at the highest level in 5 years for this timeframe.  Our top customers have been Brazil, Canada and China with India, Peru, South Korea and Mexico rounding out the top 7 importers with purchases totaling 88% of our total ethanol exports for the first quarter. Currently in Brazil sugarcane, which has often been used for ethanol production, has been rerouted and is being used for sugar production.  To enforce government mandates for ethanol use the country is now importing large amounts of U.S. ethanol.  ... view details

Prices and Weather in Argentina - Jan, 19 January 2017
A lot of attention has been focused on the weather in South America where there seems to be a tale of two considerably different stories occurring.  The output for both corn and soybean production in Argentina was recently downgraded by Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor.  His report estimates soybean production will fall by 4 million metric tons to 51 million, corn production will also see a slight decline of 500,000 to 34 million metric tons. He states in his report, “Even if a part of the (soybean) field is not under water, the soil is saturated, which could lead to a lack of oxygen in the root zone causing the plant to eventually die.” He also noted that the corn harvest may be delayed as much of the corn crop in these flooded regions is ready for harvest whenever the conditions are fit.  While regions of southern Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires are dealing with persistent rainfall that is causing flooding the southern portion of Buenos Aires and La Pampa are finding dry conditions and have yet to see rainfall this month. ... view details

USDA Report Numbers & Bird Flu Update - Jan, 12 January 2017
The USDA released their January report earlier today with few if any surprises.  Corn saw planted and harvested acres reduced as well as the yield which calculated out to a reduction of the total production by -78 million bushels.  While this is positive news it does not change the fact that the U.S. still raised a record large 15.148 billion bushels of corn last season.  Soybeans also had planted and harvested acres reduced bringing the total production down by -54 million bushels.  Once again this is good news but does not erase the record setting yield of 4.307 billion bushels in 2016. ... view details

New Regulations for Soybean Producers in Mato Grosso - Jan, 06 January 2017
The market has received a bit of a new-year boost as the Funds prepare for next week’s USDA Annual Crop Production Summary and Quarterly Stocks reports.  Kevin Van Trump had an interesting write-up this week that I decided to share, in part, with you regarding his thoughts as we move into the New Year. “I believe there is still risk on the horizon.  I’m also thinking U.S. corn acres in 2017 might be less than many inside the trade are currently forecasting.  Obviously a lot will depend on the weather and to the extent it provides the farmer with a cooperative window of opportunity this spring.  But for many producers, tightening “lines-of-credit” and a much more burdensome “basis” makes soybeans a more clear and obvious choice.” “…the current “environment” is definitely ripe for the U.S. farmer to dramatically cut corn acres in 2017.”  Of course we were all told many of these same things a year ago and 2016 turned out to be a record breaking year for corn production so it’s really too far ahead for anything more than speculation.  Van Trump concluded his thoughts with, “Remember, it’s not necessarily what the market “knows” but rather what the market ”does not yet know” that provides the opportunity.” ... view details

New Year Expectations - Dec, 29 December 2016
The trade is looking ahead to predictions from the USDA regarding new crop production and carryout.  Right now it looks like the agency is planning to use a corn yield of 170 bushels per acre which calculates to approximately 14 billion bushels of corn production for the 2017 crop season.  So just how low would acres for 2017 corn production need to be before the market would respond?  According to some analysts the U.S. needs to see corn acres fall to around 85 million before the outlook would become “bullish” for corn prices.  That would require a -10 million acre drop from 2016 economists feel that because of this we are unlikely to see prices above the $4.00 per bushel level for quite some time. It is believed that with global inventories at their current levels it would take a year of production problems to rally prices especially for corn.  Since soybean balance sheets are tighter and demand remains high it would take less of a production issue to start a rally in futures prices for soybeans. ... view details

South America Weather and 2017 Outlook - Dec, 23 December 2016
As expected traders in the U.S. have turned much of their attention towards the progress of South America’s crop production.  Market bulls are focused heavily on the dry conditions in Argentina and the longer range outlook for the 2nd quarter of 2017 when a dry pattern is anticipated to develop in Brazil. Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report says, “It feels like there’s starting to be a little more talk about second-crop corn in Brazil and what might happen in the extended forecast.  I personally believe it’s too far off on the horizon to place a weather bet in either direction.  Nearby it seems as if conditions in Argentina have slightly improved.  In other words there seems to be a lot of mixed signals.  As a producer however, late-Feb thru March of 2017, could generate a weather forecast that gives us a spark to the upside.”   ... view details

Demand and Farmland Values - Dec, 16 December 2016
Export numbers for soybeans remain strong with loadings totaling 67.5 million bushels above previous estimates and ahead of the volume needed to meet the yearly projection. Corn, however failed to the reach either the volume needed or the trade estimates for corn exports. The debate continues over what the actual yearend carryout for corn will be especially for our domestic corn supply. There are those in the trade that believe that corn exports are projected 125 million bushels too high but there are also those that feel the estimated demand for ethanol is equally underestimated.  Corn used for feed estimates are thought to be over-estimated by around 350 million bushels due to inconsistent cattle numbers and a large supply of alternative feed grains available.  Global supplies of corn are the largest concern at this point though. A forecasted increase of 9.5 million metric tons is anticipated with the bulk of the increase coming from the two countries of China and Brazil who are expected to produce an additional 6.5 million metric tons.  This will bring additional competition to U.S. exports in the global marketplace. ... view details

USDA Report and Polar Vortex Next Week - Dec, 09 December 2016
It’s difficult to believe but Christmas is right around the corner and next week will be the final full trading week of 2016!  Generally the trade will begin to thin during these last few weeks of the year which has been known to cause the market to become more unpredictable during these final trading weeks. The December, USDA Supply and Demand report was announced today, typically this report does not significantly influence the market direction and offers few surprises and this year’s report continues that trend.  Today’s report echoes the November report for U.S. inventories but increases slightly the global supplies. The January USDA report, which will be out on January 12th, 2017, is much more heavily anticipated and has a reputation for producing large market moves. ... view details

Markets and Major Weather Change - Nov, 28 November 2016
Corn has remained in high demand for several weeks but prices have not responded to the same extent.  Corn prices have remained in a narrow margin and some traders believe that much of the positive price movement we have seen is due in part to the strong soybean market, bears covering short positions and possible dry weather in South America.  The trade is not very concerned at this point about the reports of dryness in South America but according to Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report, “I suspect it won’t take much to pump a bit of weather related risk-premium back in to the marketplace.” ... view details

Corn and Soybean Demand - Nov, 22 November 2016
The U.S. markets will be closed this Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday and marks the beginning of the holiday trading season in commodities. While the markets will be open most days with the exception of Thursday many of the traders will be gone all week which can cause some volatility, this turbulence often continues into December as traders begin their early year and quarter end positioning. The USDA WASDE report announced on November 9th a significant increase to the corn yield for the 2016/17 marketing year. Several of the western states in the Corn Belt saw the largest increases in yield.  The states of Nebraska and South Dakota both saw 3 bushel per acre increases from the October estimates.  Minnesota had an increase in yield of 4 bushels per acre and the state of North Dakota led the way with an increase from the October estimates of 17 bushels per acre. The current yield totals bring the ending stocks-to-use ratio to around 16.4% under current consumption guesstimates, this ratio has not been seen since the 2005-06 marketing year.  Todd Hubbs, an Agricultural Economist from the University of Illinois recognizes the negative effects associated with historic yields and market prices.  In an article published in Farm News, Hubbs offered his projections regarding how he be sees this corn crop being used this marketing year.   ... view details

Millions of Bushels of Unharvested Corn and Soybeans in the Path of Winter Storm - Nov, 18 November 2016
The U.S. Dollar has managed to reach a 13 year high.  Unfortunately this increase in value for our Dollar makes our U.S. exports more expensive for buyers and in turn limits potential interest in U.S. goods and products.                                     ... view details

USDA Worksheet and More Warm Days Ahead - Nov, 10 November 2016
The estimated corn yield was raised by +1.9 bushels per acre this week in the USDA Supply and Demand report.  This brings the average yield per acre in the U.S. to 175.3 bushels per acre and sets a new record for total production of 15.22 billion bushels.  This is a +12% increase from last year and an additional 168 million bushels from the estimate in October. Soybeans are also finding an increase in production.  The November estimated average soybean yield for the U.S. has set a new high this year of 52.5 bushels per acre which breaks the previous record set last year of 48 bushels per acre. This is an increase of 92 million bushels from the estimate in October. This level of production amounts to a huge 4.36 billion bushels harvested from 83 million acres.  ... view details

Farmers Facing Financial Stress in U.S and South America - Nov, 03 November 2016
An article found in Reuters tells of the financial stresses facing farmers across the nation and the alarming 125% increase in Chapter 12 filings in Iowa.  The current problem facing many of these individuals occurred when, according to the article, “Some farmers loaded up on easy credit when grain prices were high and kept borrowing after they crashed.  Now debt and delinquencies are rising fast, raising fears of broader turmoil in U.S. agriculture.”  The U.S. government does not follow the occurrence of large farm bankruptcies but Chapter 12 bankruptcies (those with less than $4.03 million in debt) are tracked and the results are alarming.  Last year about 1 out of every 3 farms raising grain and other row crops (except cotton) were classified as “highly leveraged” or “very highly leveraged”.  These terms are used to describe situations in which debts were equal to 41% or more of the producer’s assets.   ... view details

Harvest Progress and Weather Outlooks - Oct, 28 October 2016
Political and logistical uncertainty continue to circulate around the globe which is lending some support to corn prices even during a period of record surplus.  Strength in the Brazilian currency, grain quality issues found in some U.S. bushels, speculation of less corn acres planned for next season in China and soggy conditions in Argentina are all factors currently fueling higher corn prices.  While wet conditions may be interrupting planting progress in Argentina at the current time the Rosario Grains Exchange is predicting they will be the world’s second largest exporter of corn during the 2016-17 season.  This adjustment is a result of the drought in Brazil that caused a drastic reduction in yields as well as a steep +18% increase in corn planted in Argentina.  The BCR predicts U.S. corn exports will reach 48.2 million tons with Argentina coming in second place with 19.5 MT and Brazil coming in 3rd tied with Ukraine with 16.5 MT each. ... view details

Harvest In Full Swing - Oct, 21 October 2016
The USDA continues to monitor harvest progress and crop conditions across the country each week.  At the start of this week the advancement of corn harvest rose by 11% from 1 week ago to 46% complete.  This still shows a lag from last year when the U.S. was 55% complete.  There are states that fall on both sides of the 5-year average for work completed at this time: ... view details

ARC Payment Maps and Cost vs Returns Charts - Oct, 10 October 2016
The falling crop prices have activated the safety-net programs of the USDA.  Many of the 1.7 million farms that chose to enroll in either the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) will receive payments due to the decline in prices during the 2015 crop year.  The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack said, “This fall, USDA will be making more than $7 billion in payments under the ARC-County and PLC programs to assist participating producers, which will account for over 10% of USDA’s projected 2016 net farm income.”  Across the nation 96% of base soybean acres, 91% of base corn acres and 66% of base wheat acres were enrolled in the ARC-County option.  99% of the long grain rice and peanut base acres and 94% of base medium grain rice acres were enrolled in PLC.  This brings the overall total enrollment of participating base acres to: ... view details

Report Update and Possible Harvest Delays In Store - Oct, 03 October 2016
The numbers for corn can be looked at as “uneventful” or as slightly bullish since the September number was slightly lower than what the trade had been anticipating according to Kevin Van Trump.  He cautions producers, “The chart gurus are still forecasting stiff resistance up in the $3.45 to $3.55 range.  With major downside support remaining in the $3.00 to $3.20 range.”  There is now concern that China may begin increasing corn exports which would add some anxiety to the market and South America is being watched closely as planting continues in several areas.  Some regions in southern Brazil and Argentina have heavy rainfall forecasted for this week, this precipitation is considered beneficial for early crop growth and soil moisture due to the severe drought conditions earlier this year.  The eastern half of Mato Grosso still remains dry and conditions there will continue to monitored. There are some traders speculating that corn acres in S.A. may be considerably larger than earlier thought; in addition they are anticipating that the USDA may raise the acreage estimate for corn acres here in the U.S. for 2017. ... view details

Pre Report and Weather Updates - Sep, 30 September 2016
The Crop Progress harvest report for this past week is shown in the maps below for both corn and soybeans.  The recent storm system that moved across parts of the Midwest has slowed harvest putting producers behind average in several states for both crops. Normally the U.S. corn harvest is 19% complete by this time, this year the nation’s harvested corn acres sit at about 15%.  The states with the biggest departure from average are:  ... view details

Interest Rates and Harvest Progress - Sep, 23 September 2016
Many producers are finding now that harvest has begun that yields are not what they had expected.  Keven Van Trump of the Van Trump Report has been receiving information from many of his customers that have been finding extremely disappointing yields once they began harvest. Van Trump reports, “I’m not saying it’s everybody, but there seems to be an abnormally large group of producers this year who have been forecasting and expecting fantastic yields, but are coming up extremely short-handed once they start harvesting the bushels out of the field.  Let’s just say there’s some things happening out in the fields that guys haven’t seen before and are leaving many scratching their head.  The planting was good, the moisture was good, the crop looked good, but the bushels simply weren’t out in the field.”  One of his readers in Northwest Ohio sent in the picture shown below with a brief message which Van Trump shared in his report.  The farmer stated that the corn shown is a 110 day planted on April 20th.  The weather was cool for a week following planting and later was followed with hot dry conditions with only 2.1 inches of rain during June and July.  Following an actual yield check the producers is expecting a final average of close to 160 on a farm with an APH of 201. ... view details

USDA Report Data and Lower Odds For La Niña - Sep, 14 September 2016
Crop prices have fallen off dramatically since the end of June and because of this many producers have held on to on-farm stored grain in hopes of another rally but record setting yield expectations have continued to push prices even lower.  To add to the negative situation the trade is now questioning whether or not the USDA has accurate acres numbers for corn and soybeans after reviewing data from the FSA.  Historically the numbers from the FSA and USDA have differed but traders are now questioning the extent of this difference and are estimating that an increase of 2 million acres for both corn and soybeans is possible.  There seems to be very little good news on the horizon, as producers we need to watch the yield data that is now starting to be reported and also keep an eye on South America’s weather which so far has been favorable for producers in those areas. ... view details

South America and U.S Crop Conditions - Sep, 08 September 2016
The weekly corn Good to Excellent crop condition rating was lowered by -1% to 74% from last week.  76% of the corn was found to be dented and 18% is mature. Harvest is well underway in many southern regions of the U.S. with several states reporting in with over 80% of the corn harvested. It’s probable that the USDA will release their first harvest estimate next week now that harvest has started in the southern portion of Illinois as well.   ... view details

Soybean Acreage Estimate for 2017 & Falling Farm Incomes - Aug, 31 August 2016
I read an article by Darin Newsom in The Progressive Farmer this week titled, “September Mourn” which in my opinion could easily be expanded further to “Summer Mourn” or “Year of Mourning”...  Darin Newsom, a senior analyst with DTN, wrote of the similarities between our last growing season and this one such as the early arrival to summer weather and the weather driven corn rally that was followed by an abrupt collapse in prices across the entire grain complex.  The one variance between this year and last is the overall negative mood amongst producers this year as they face the possibility of yet another year of low profitability. (The USDA has a newly released report that indicates that farm sector profitability is expected to fall to the lowest level in 7 years.  A pay cut of 11.5% is forecasted for producers this year caused in part to a drop of 15% in corn prices and 20% in wheat prices.) Newsom stated in his article, “As for corn, we may be roughly six months from the market finally breaking out of its bearish rut. There’s a good chance the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates this month, putting pressure on U.S. dollar index and raising interest in U.S. supplies on the export market.  Factor in Brazil’s extremely tight supplies, and U.S. exports could get back to where they were prior to the three-year drought from 2010 through 2012.  Lastly, as DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson has been saying since this past February, the much discussed La Niña could come into play in the spring and summer of 2017.” ... view details

Annual Plot Tour and Customer Appreciation Dinner - Aug, 26 August 2016
Ag Performance will host their annual Plot Tour and Appreciation Meal next Wednesday, August 31, 2016, located at 710 North Main Street, Buffalo Center, Iowa.  The plot tour will begin at 3:00 p.m. followed by a meal.  Please mark your calendar and make plans to attend!  We hope to see you there! ... view details

Crop Tour Results and Weather Outlooks - Aug, 26 August 2016
The USDA remains confident that farmers across the U.S. are experiencing some amazing crop conditions.  This week the agency raised the Good to Excellent rating higher once again to 75%; this is up 1 percentage point from a week ago. ... view details

Cash Rent and Crop Progress - Aug, 19 August 2016
The USDA has left the corn crop rated Good to Excellent at 74% from last week into this week.  Some states saw improvements in their corn crop conditions from the previous week while other states saw a decline in ratings balancing the assessment which keeps the 2016 rating well above typical rating levels for this point of the growing season.  Harvest continues to advance across the South with Texas reporting 38%, Georgia 36%, Louisiana 30%, Mississippi 11% and Arkansas 5% harvested.  Prices have remained in a narrow trading window following the big decline just prior to the June, USDA report.  Kevin VanTrump of the Van Trump group finds there to be a lot of resistance on the charts at the $3.50-$3.60 price and cautions that “Fundamentally, even though demand is seen as extremely strong the recent record setting yield and mammoth production numbers thrown into the mix by the USDA is going to make any sustained rally extremely difficult to find follow through.” As always though an unseen event somewhere in the world can have the ability to spark a rally, he also suggests that the last 3 months of the year may bring better selling opportunities. ... view details

USDA Pre-Report Worksheet & S.A. Updates - Aug, 11 August 2016
The Good to Excellent corn crop rating finally saw a decline of -2% this week.  This 74% Good to Excellent rating is still +4% above our rating at this time last year and well above average.  Harvesting has begun in southern regions of the U.S. with Texas well ahead of last year reporting 1/3 of their corn has been harvested along with Louisiana 18% and Mississippi 4% completed. ... view details

Price Outlooks and The Heat Goes On... - Aug, 03 August 2016
Production expectations for the crop of 2016 continue to remain strong while prices continue to fall.  The Funds are known to influence price movements, it seems as though these investment groups have “turned against” corn, soybeans and wheat with the anticipation of continued well-timed rain events.  According to the Commodity futures Trading Commission data the 3 largest U.S. crops had a combined net-short position of 74,033 contracts.  Just 1 week prior to that the Funds held 7,724 net-long contracts! ... view details

Weather and Crop Conditions - Jul, 28 July 2016
Weekly crop conditions reported by the USDA again show a tremendously high Good to Excellent corn rating of 76%.  This rating is one we haven’t seen this late in the growing season in over 20 years.  Expectations are 86+ million corn acres will be harvested this season with yields projected to surpass 170 bushels per acre.  Predictions such as this are certainly going to make it difficult for corn prices to improve in the near future.  In addition to the favorable weather situation found in the U.S. producers also have to contend with an increasing value in the U.S. Dollar and decreasing oil prices, all of which work against higher grain prices.  There is another “high heat” event expected to arrive next week (I have more information on this subject further in the report) but it will likely be difficult to convince traders that it will be a “game changer” at this point.  The USDA’s weekly crop conditions report also indicated that 13% of the nation’s corn crop is the dough stage which is typical at this point in time, and 79% of the corn is silking, which is 9% above normal. ... view details

Some Issues Facing S.A. and the August Outlook - Jul, 21 July 2016
DEC16 new crop prices for corn have receded below $3.50 per bushel.  The record harvest of 14.215 billion bushels in 2014-15 brought corn prices down below $3.20 for a short time but since then producers have not had to deal with prices below $3.50 for any prolonged time frame.  This year expectations are for production to exceed the previous record with total production estimated to reach 14.5 billion bushels on approximately 86.6 million harvested acres. Compare this to 2014 when the record breaking yield was harvested on just 83.1 million acres, that’s -3.5 million less acres than we will harvest this year.  USDA continues to report that the U.S. is experiencing some of the best crop conditions in years and even with the excessive heat hitting key growing states this week the current crop conditions are thought to good enough to withstand any upcoming heat stress.  Crop historians would also tell us that it’s unlikely that this season’s corn crop would yield below trend-line given the current “Good to Excellent” rating at this point of the growing season. ... view details

USDA Report Numbers and Crop Progress - Jul, 12 July 2016
The USDA released their latest production numbers today for 2016/17.  There are a few of the notable I have listed followed by the worksheet. Corn stocks were lowered by -7 million bushels (decreased usage for feed and ethanol were more than balanced out with the increases in seed use and exports) Corn bushels used for ethanol production was reduced by -25 million bushels. Corn used for feed fell to 5.5 billion bushels which is a -50 million bushel decrease from the June report but is still +300 million bushels more than last year. New crop production was increased by +110 million bushels due to the increase in planted acres. Exports for corn were raised by +100 million bushels as a result of Brazil’s production problems forcing them to cut many exports. The new projected average price for new crop corn was adjusted lower to $3.10 - $3.70 per bushel. New crop soybean production was raised by +80 million bushels. Projected ending stocks for the new crop of soybeans now sits at 290 million bushels which is +30 million bushels from June. Old crop soybean stocks fell by -20 million bushels from last month to 350 million bushels. The new projected average price for new crop soybeans is $8.75 - $10.25 per bushel this was left unchanged. ... view details

Crop Conditions and Market Prices - Jul, 08 July 2016
The last week has had a lot of fireworks but unfortunately many of them were ignited by the USDA’s latest bearish report.  Even with the massive downturn in prices the Funds are still thought to own close to +100,000 long corn contracts on the board.  If this is true then there is still the possibility of prices moving lower if they decide to get out of those positions.  In addition to those negative factors: Argentina’s corn is now becoming more price competitive in the global market. Brazil is approximately 25% done with the harvest of the 2nd crop which is way ahead of normal. U.S. corn crop is entering pollination with one of the best crop condition ratings at this stage in history. (The current Good to Excellent corn rating of 75% was raised from 72% during the last week of May into the first week of June and has remained there since) Some analysts are now increasing their yield estimates higher, many are now predicting an average between 168 -172 bushels per acre. We currently have an enormous supply of ethanol on hand and the price per gallon is not competitive with unleaded gasoline. ... view details

USDA Report & Hot/Dry Outlooks - Jun, 30 June 2016
During this same week a year ago the USDA rated 63% of the nation’s soybeans crop as Good to Excellent this year that report has rated 72% of the U.S. soybean crop is that category.  The U.S. harvested a record yield last year of 48.0 bushels per acre so with an increase of 9% in the Good to Excellent category many analysts expect adjustments to be made by the USDA to their average yield expectations for 2016 as well as the total acres planted in the reports to follow. ... view details

How Does This Year Compare? - Jun, 24 June 2016
This week has not been much of a confidence booster for farmers with regards to the forecasted hot and dry summer weather and approaching La Niña that are predicted by some to arrive very soon and drive prices higher.  The weather in the Corn Belt has a remarkable resemblance between the 1982-83 totals to the current 2015-16 totals and many comparisons have been made between these years.  The Van Trump Report had an interesting graph from T-Storm Weather that charts the precipitation from these years and shows us these similarities.   ... view details

USDA Numbers and Father's Day Weekend Forecast - Jun, 16 June 2016
  The USDA released the June Supply and Demand Report last week with some much anticipated bullish adjustments.  CORN Ending stocks for 2015/16 were lowered by -95 million bushels. A +100 million bushel increase for corn exports was projected which compensates for the marginally higher imported bushels expectation. Production was unchanged at a record 14.430 billion bushels. Ending stocks estimates for 2016/17 were reduced by -145 million bushels from last month to 2.008 billion bushels. The export number for 2016/17 corn was raised by +50 million bushels. Corn production out of Brazil for 2015/16 was lowered substantially by -3.5 million tons. ... view details

USDA Worksheet and Weather Outlooks - Jun, 08 June 2016
The June USDA Supply and Demand report will be released this Friday, June 10th.  The trade will be particularly interested in the soybean ending stocks number and also to what extent the USDA will raise their estimates for exports and domestic crush.  If we see an increase of +25 to +50 million bushels, as many sources believe is possible, the trade will likely become considerably more uneasy about ending stock supplies.  The expectation for corn is not as clear.  The trade is expecting bullish news regarding the corn export number but is less confident that the USDA will make the necessary adjustments to their estimates in the June report, but instead may make this more significant adjustment in a later report.  On June 30th the USDA will announce the Acreage and Grain Stocks report.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report expects “the USDA will deliver a less bearish acreage scenario on June 30th, perhaps -500,000 to -1.0 million fewer acres of corn will be revealed”.   ... view details

Prices and An Upside Down Weather Month - Jun, 02 June 2016
For the first time since July, 2015 corn has closed above $4.00.  Funds and speculators appear to be more optimistic towards corn even with little fresh news in the headlines. It has been estimated that speculators are currently holding close to +100,000 long contracts.  Global news regarding weather complications in South America has gained much attention over the past several weeks and it continues to hold the attention of producers and traders even now.  Argentina has been receiving heavy rainfall that has slowed the harvest progress and is now also causing “serious logistical restraints” which is preventing the country from exporting its usual large amounts of corn.  Brazil exported too much corn and is now finding it is out of the domestic supply they need, this shortage is expected to continue for the next year due to the widespread drought conditions that have ruined or reduced corn yields across many key growing regions. Poor weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil has intensified the importance of U.S. weather this summer and South America’s weather into the 2017 growing seasons. This means that for the time being the world’s attention has shifted toward the U.S. and away from South America for their upcoming import needs.  To add to the situation it has been reported that banks is South America have become nervous and producers are finding it difficult to secure financing for input costs.  This may force many producers to switch to the less expensive input alternative to corn…soybeans. ... view details

Planting Progress and Weekend Forecasts - May, 26 May 2016
The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 86% of the 2016 corn crop has been planted.  This is less than many in the trade had anticipated but is in line with last year’s 90% and the 5-year average of 85% planted.  This calculates out to about 13 million corn acres still unplanted.  States with the most significant amount of unplanted corn acres are: Indiana- 2.2 million acres Ohio- 1.73 million acres Illinois- 1.33 million acres Nebraska and South Dakota are each just under 1 million acres left Michigan- 850,000 acres There are other states that have acres left to plant as well but generally they have 500,000 or less unplanted corn acres.  Weather has been cooperating the last several days in the eastern Corn Belt, where the majority of the unplanted acres are found. Producers expect to have corn planting completed by the weekend if the rain holds off. Next week’s Crop Progress report will give us the first update on the condition of the U.S. corn crop.  Expectations are that the report will show a Good to Excellent rating of 74% which is similar to last year’s rating. ... view details

Weather Outlook for Summer 2016 - May, 16 May 2016
Over the weekend the Midwest had a cold front push through and into the Great Lakes bringing record low temperatures.  Record lows were found Saturday morning from Kansas City, MO (40 degrees F) to Grand Forks, ND (23 degrees F).  There were also reports of snow in parts of Wisconsin, Michigan, northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and New York.  I am always interested in and looking for information to share with you regarding the weather forecasts both short and long-term outlooks.  In my February 4th, 2016 newsletter I had the following weather predictions from Bill Kirk owner of Weather Trends 360.  At the time I debated whether to include the information or not because it seemed rather far- fetched at the time, last week though as I was hearing the chances for frost I was reminded of this forecast.  Below is a copy of that part of the Feb 4th newsletter. ... view details

Supply and Demand Data & The Ag Economy Barometer - May, 11 May 2016
Some days are just better than others, we can blame the weather or daily routines but for many producers crop price movements can either make or break most days. Purdue University has joined with the CME Group to create a method to measure the mindset of producers it’s called the Ag Economy Barometer.  The information for this is gathered every month and is based on survey responses from 400 agriculture producers from around the country.  These surveys measure the perceived “health” of the Ag economy based on the responses to the following 5 questions listed here: ... view details

Planting Progress in the U.S. and South American Weather Update - May, 06 May 2016
Corn exports from the U.S. remain strong, traders are thinking that the USDA may need to double the current estimate from 25 million bushels to 50 million.  In a recent marketing letter I told you about the abundance of corn currently held in China and the new policy to replace its domestic stockpiling program with direct subsidies for growers.  This decision now turns Chinese producers into competitors with the U.S. for global corn demand. Some inside the trade have also been speculating that if it is true that China plans to export a large portion of their domestic supply, they may actually be trying to artificially inflate corn prices.  Kevin Van Trump explained it this way, “Think about it this way, if the Chinese truly are sitting on 50-55% of the worlds entire corn supply, and they do in fact need to sell a large portion, they would be fools to let prices massively devalue.” ... view details

Summer Forecast and Issues in South America - Apr, 27 April 2016
The grain markets have producers confused and hesitant to make any marketing decisions until they know what’s going on.  Goldman Sachs cautions that the recent rally is not based on the fundamentals.  In a recent write-up Goldman Sachs was quoted “While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside…we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals.”  Kevin Van Trump says “technically the chart guru’s as well as myself would still like to see the DEC16 new-crop contract close back above its 200-Day Moving Average, an area just north of $3.93 per bushel.  Unfortunately that has only happened a handful of times in the past several months.” ... view details

What's Going On With The Markets? - Apr, 21 April 2016
The corn and soybean markets have had a nice run higher.  So what’s going on that is causing prices to move higher: Brazil’s government has eliminated the 10% tax on corn imports from non-Mercosur countries for 6 months.  The removal of this tax encourages imports and contributes to the speculation of tight supplies. Weather conditions in South America have not been favorable for crop production. (more details below) The EIA reported that 939,000 barrels were produced last week, only 1,000 barrels more than the previous week.  Ethanol stocks fell last Friday by 300,000 barrels from the previous week which is the lowest supply level since January 22nd. Corn exports remain strong. Private exporters informed the USDA yesterday that 136,000 MT of U.S. corn was sold to an unknown destination for delivery this year and 241,516 MT were also sold to an unknown destination earlier in the week. ... view details

Wild Weather and The Growing Season - Apr, 15 April 2016
The USDA Supply and Demand report released Tuesday found higher ending stocks for corn. There was a reduction of 50 million bushels used for feed and residual while corn used for ethanol was increased by 25 million bushels. The global stocks were raised higher due to a bump in production in Argentina, Brazil production was unchanged.  The U.S. ending stocks balance for soybeans was lowered while the global stocks saw a slight increase.  The U.S. supply fell due to an increase of 15 million bushels in exports, while soybean crush and soybean meal and oil totals were unchanged.   ... view details

Early Plainting Data and A Outlook on Corn Prices - Apr, 08 April 2016
Many were caught off-guard by the huge increase in corn acres that the USDA expects U.S. producers to plant in 2016.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report explains that “the extra-large prevent plant acres from 2015 along with sorghum, barley, winter wheat and spring wheat acres that didn’t get planted this year are all in play and looking for a crop.  Insurance and government guarantees are obviously playing a major factor and more than likely why the USDA is forecasting an acreage jump for crops like Rice, Cotton, Corn and Durum Wheat.  Any way you slice it planted corn acres are going to be north of +90 million and bulging supply will unfortunately act like an anchor on prices at least until the trade wants to focus more heavily on June-July moisture and heat.”  There continues to be important differences of opinion regarding the timeframe for the arrival of full-blown La Niña weather conditions.  Forecasters all seem to be in agreement that it will develop but when it develops is critical! ... view details

USDA Report and A Cold Start to April - Mar, 31 March 2016
Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report analyzed the numbers from the report today and commented, “As I travel around the country talking to producers everyone keeps saying the same thing, ”We didn’t pay this kind of money to simply plant soybeans” In other words, guys aren’t paying $250 to $350 cash rents with the intentions of going in and planting soybeans at a slight loss or at best break-even.”  Given the soybean to corn ratio, “they feel like their backs are against the wall and they are coming out swinging.  They want to chase the yield in hopes that they can out produce the lower prices….The problem is if this horse doesn’t come in many folks are going to leave the race track a big loser….It’s all or nothing now…I suspect without a major U.S. weather hiccup prices will remain under pressure.” ... view details

Market Movement - Mar, 24 March 2016
Technically speaking we are stuck in a sideways rut according to Kevin VanTrump of the VanTrump Report.  The range for the past two weeks has seen a total movement from high to low of less than 7 cents and for all of 2016 there has been less than a 25 cent range.  2015 saw a similarly small trading range until the first week in April.  During April of 2015 we saw corn lose about 50 cents to sub $3.50 prices, then it managed to recover +80 - 90 cents per bushel from mid-June through mid-July then fell back into a $3.50 - $4.00 per bushel range.  There’s no way to know if this market year will react in the same fashion but VanTrump finds that “it’s certainly strange to see us trading in this tight of a range considering the extreme volatility we’ve become accustomed to during the past decade.   ... view details

New Spring and Summer Predictions and USDA Worksheets - Mar, 17 March 2016
Last Wednesday, March 9th the USDA updated the ending stocks numbers.  The domestic balance sheet for corn was left unchanged along with South America, South African production was reduced to 6.5 MMT from 7 MMT.  The World Ending Stocks saw a reduction to 207.0 from February’s total of 208.81.  U.S. soybeans saw an increase of 10 million bushels from 450 to 460 million bushels, while the world ending supply saw a decrease from the February number of 80.42 to 78.9.  The domestic crush number was lowered by 10 million bushels, U.S. exports were left unchanged while Chinese soybean imports rose from 80.5 to 82.5.  ... view details

2016 Weather Outlooks - Mar, 08 March 2016
Knowing what spring and summer weather will be would be an amazing asset for producers.  There would be little doubt or speculation about the selling of old crop supplies or the pricing of the new crop.  Sadly though that is not the case, at least not yet.  For several years the European Center for Medium-range Weather forecasting has been highly respected for their accuracy, even more so than the American GFS (Global Forecasting System) for predicting Medium-range weather.  Recently the U.S. invested $44.5 million into the development of an even better forecasting model in order to compete with their European counterpart.  This super-computer which was designed and is owned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is already in use and producing impressive results.  The winter storm that hit the east coast a month ago was predicted with amazing accuracy, NOAA officials believe that this is only a glimpse of what this super-computer will be able to offer.  As this computer advances through time with new technologies the accuracy will continue to improve, perhaps this will help eliminate some of the uncertainty in the markets we see today.  Until then we will continue to gather information from many sources and try to make the best possible decisions we can based on that data. ... view details

USDA Ag Outlook Forum - Mar, 02 March 2016
The USDA Ag Outlook Forum was held the end of last week, it is the agencies largest annual meeting.  This annual event started in 1923 and brings together 1,600 U.S. and foreign producers, government officials, processors and policy makers and gives the group an opportunity to discuss important issues that impact the agriculture community.  Below are a couple of the many  slides shared by the USDA at the meeting. ... view details

2016 Growing Season - Feb, 22 February 2016
The USDA is always busy formulating predictions usually several weeks if not months in advance.  The early estimates given by the agency indicated their belief that producers are likely going to increase acres of corn planted to 90.5 million and decrease acres planted to soybeans to 82 million in 2016.  The first true picture for the 2016 crop year will come in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report on March 31st, 2016.  Agricultural economist from the University of Illinois, Darrel Good says, “the report will shed some light on how last year’s large prevented acreage (6.7 million acres), the decline in winter wheat seedings (2.8 million acres), the decline in Conservation Reserve Program acreage (1.4 million acres), and low commodity prices will impact planting intention for spring planted crops.  That is the report that will shed light on the prospective size of the 2016 acreage pie.”  Farmers all seem to have a love of planting corn.  According to the USDA though this may need to change due to producer’s diminished working capital from 2 years of prices at or below the cost of production. While corn may show a higher return on paper the higher input costs may deter producers when compared to the cost of growing soybeans which is about 50% lower.    ... view details

Ag Incomes Expected to Remain Lower in 2016 - Feb, 16 February 2016
It is becoming extremely difficult to find much bullish news lately.  Even when bullish events (like the decline of the U.S. Dollar) anxiously awaited occur, the market doesn’t respond as expected. The USDA’s Ag Forum Outlook will be held next week, February 25th-26th, and the trade will be interested in the predictions for 2016 even though they are only estimates at this point.  Beyond that the market will be turning their focus to spring weather planting conditions and acres of corn vs soybeans. ... view details

USDA February Report and US Dollar Falls - Feb, 09 February 2016
For several months now we have been told that the high value of the U.S. Dollar is partly to blame for falling commodity prices.  Last week the Dollar saw a massive break in value but it has amounted to ZERO gain in corn prices.  It’s quite disappointing that the last time the Dollar was at this level was in October when corn was +$.20 cents higher and soybeans were +$.50 cents higher and yet our market did not respond when the value of the Dollar fell.  Rising production estimates out of South American along with falling U.S. exports, lower crude oil prices and increasing supplies of ethanol are all bearish factors weighing down prices.     ... view details

Price Direction - Feb, 04 February 2016
Corn has rebounded close to $.25 since the low set in early January. Corn will likely face tougher technical resistance within the next $.10 to $.20 to move much higher according to Kevin VanTrump of the VanTrump Report.  “I wish I could tell you I’m bullish, but I’m a little nervous about how much further the recent rally can extend itself.”  One of the components for moving the market higher was the hope that when the Funds, that were heavy short positions covered those contracts that the price would rally a significant number of those contracts have now been covered. ... view details

Ethanol Prices and Crop Production in Brazil - Jan, 26 January 2016
Last weekend’s snowstorm along the east coast has managed to shut-down business in Washington D.C. until sometime later tomorrow afternoon.  This has forced a delay for the hearing that was scheduled for today, Agriculture Committee members from the House had planned to question the EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy.  Chairman of the Ag Committee, Michael Conaway has been quoted in a statement describing the agency as, “an agency addicted to writing regulations that ignore congressional intent and public input.”  Tomorrow two panels of the House Oversight Committee were planning a joint hearing on the Renewable Fuel Standards which has also been postponed, details on new meeting dates and times have not been made public yet. ... view details

Bird Flu Returns and Market News - Jan, 19 January 2016
The grain markets are searching for fresh news to help give support to prices.  The fact that we currently are, and have been for quite some time, one of the highest priced sources globally for corn and soybeans is a big stumbling block to a sustainable price recovery.  In addition harvest season in South America has arrived which is also adding to the stress on prices.  The Funds are holding a substantial number of short positions in commodities right now with record short contracts for corn and wheat.  Some analysts feel that this fact alone has the ability to possibly trigger a market rally, in order for this to occur we need the Funds to not only cover these short positions but also continue to buy, it also could simply limit fresh selling.  There have also been reports that the Funds may exit the commodity markets for the foreseeable future, this could also limit price potential during that time.  Below is a list of more information effecting the grain markets: ... view details

USDA Report Data & Weather Updates - Jan, 12 January 2016
The USDA Final Production Report for 2015 was released at 11:00 CST today, below is a worksheet of the results as it compares to previous reports and prior predictions. ... view details

Short & Long Term Weather & USDA Worksheet - Jan, 08 January 2016
The USDA January report will be announced next Tuesday, January 12th, 2016 at this time the trade is not expecting a lot of changes.  Corn exports are expected to be reduced by -25 million bushels, ethanol is likely to remain unchanged but there is a lot of speculation regarding the final yield with most estimates showing a swing of 2 bushels in either direction.  Soybean stocks are looking to move higher from earlier numbers due in part to lower exports and a decline in the domestic crush.  Some within the trade believe that the USDA’s expectations for South American crops are not likely to be significantly adjusted in Tuesday’s report because of the wide variance in yield reports.  Some producers have reported record setting yields while others have found the worst yields they have seen in years.  While we wait for more results on this harvest also keep in mind that the second-crop corn in Brazil will remain an important unknown in the global supply market for some time yet.  Following this report next week one of the next big indicators for the trade will be the U.S. acreage intentions for 2016 which the USDA will present during the Ag Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA, February 25-26th.   ... view details

Looking Ahead To 2016 - Dec, 31 December 2015
The trade has been rather quiet as we enter week 2 of our extended holiday season and the markets will again be closed this Friday, January 1st, 2016.  Next week, the first full-week of January is likely to be active for prices.  The annual and highly anticipated January USDA Crop reports are scheduled for January 12th, China will be releasing key data as will the U.S. and Europe.  Additionally the U.S. Federal Reserve is publicizing minutes from the December 17th meeting, all of this is likely to cause the Funds to do a large amount of repositioning and reallocating during the early part of January.   ... view details

El Niño Threatening Brazil Crops - Dec, 21 December 2015
The Christmas holiday will shorten the market trading days this week.  The markets in the U.S. will be closing at 12:00 CST this Thursday and remain closed all day Friday, December 25th, Christmas Day.  Most markets in Europe, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, Brazil and Mexico will also be closed for the holiday. Informa has updated their previous estimates for the 2016 Corn and Soybean acres.  The U.S. 2016 corn acres were previously estimated at 90.1 million that number has been lowered now to 88.93 million acres.  Soybean acres were also reduced from 85.3 million acres down to 84.54 million acres.   ... view details

Predictions for the 2016 Crop Season - Dec, 14 December 2015
The USDA announced recently their longer-term outlook for next year.  The report shows that in spite of low corn and soybean prices the acreage for corn is expected to grow, normal weather and trend-line yields are assumed at this point and time of the year.  These projections will be reevaluated in February at the USDA Outlook Forum.  Currently the USDA projects that corn acres will climb by 2.1 million acres to 90.5 million planted acres which computes to around 13.9 billion bushels with assumed normal weather and trend-line yields.  If the projection holds true this would be a 2% increase in corn acres from this year and potentially one of the biggest crops ever harvested in the U.S.  With these factors in mind they estimate that the average price for the 2016 corn crop would average close to $3.60 per bushel. ... view details

Crop Prices and USDA Pre-Report Worksheet - Dec, 07 December 2015
As producers we have been waiting for some infusions of positive news in the market that can spark a rally in prices.  Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report points out “we remain stuck in a price-range for corn somewhere between $3.20 and $4.40 per bushel.  Simple math tells us the mid-point of this range is $3.80, not so surprisingly that seems to be where corn appears to feel the most comfortable.”   ... view details

Final RFS Rule and Weather - Dec, 02 December 2015
The EPA announced this week the new ethanol mandate that has been the subject of much debate for many months.  In 2007 a federal law mandated that 22.25 billion gallons of biofuels be mixed in with the fuel supply by 2016.  In May of this year the EPA proposed the level for 2016 be 17.4 billion gallons, the final rule announced Monday calls for 18.11 billion gallons, considerably lower than the original mandate in 2007 but slightly higher than what was proposed just last spring.  Below is a graphic by the VanTrump Report that shows the comparisons between what the mandate had called for production levels to be for 2014, 2015 and 2016 and compares them to what the EPA proposed in May and what the final rules state. ... view details

Demand Outlooks - Nov, 25 November 2015
Commodity prices are the main topic of conversations this time of year, not only about when to sell or how much, but also input costs and corn vs. soybean acres for the 2016 growing season.  We all have a variety of “experts” that we tend to follow from week to week so today I decided to bring you a small collection of ideas about global supply and demand from a few of the “experts”.  We can stick our heads in the sand and try to ignore what is happening with market prices or we can try to understand it and the more information you’re armed with the better decisions you can make.  ... view details

Sliding Markets and Port Activity - Nov, 17 November 2015
We’ve been hearing about our weak export market especially in the corn market for a while now.  According to data gathered by the trade researching firm, Zepol Corp., our nation’s ports are quiet in general.  The Wall Street Journal analyzed the data collected from the Zepol Corp. and found that during the peak shipping season of August through October our 3 busiest ports of Los Angeles, CA; Long Beach, CA; and the New York Harbor area; saw more than a 10% decrease from normal levels.  Is this sending us a warning about the U.S. economy?  When import volumes are high retailers and manufacturers tend to have a more optimistic and confident view, when the ports are quiet fears of a slowdown grow. ... view details

RFS Update and US Crop Production Numbers - Nov, 10 November 2015
Bearish report for corn as expected.  The national corn yield was raised by almost 1 bushel which brings the average to 169.3 bushels per acre.  Some of the other important highlights: Exports down by 50 million bushels. Ethanol lowered by 75 million bushels. Demand was lowered, while ending stock numbers were increased by almost 200 million bushels. China’s beginning stocks number was raised by 18.8 million tons on lowered feed use for the previous marketing years. Feed usage raised by 25 million bushels. European Union corn was reduced from 58 MMT to 57.75 MMT Ukraine corn was also reduced to 23 MMT from 25 MMT ... view details

Land Ownership Data and Informa Estimates - Nov, 03 November 2015
Recent increases in soybeans values are likely a result of the increase in Chinese demand and global weather issues. This has captured the attention of South American producers which is important given their depressed economic situation, the world needs production to remain high to meet the growth in demand even with the increased world stocks. The uncertainty surrounding the final soybean yield in the U.S. is nearing an end.  The current USDA estimate indicated an expected yield of 47.2 bushels per acre but given the yield results in most regions the majority of analysts believe that the final yield may be closer to 50 bushels per acre.  This yield may also hold true in areas where double cropped soybeans are raised.  The normal yield is generally around 25 bushels per acre, this year producers are expecting yields near 50 bushels per acre. ... view details

Market Influences - Oct, 27 October 2015
Where do prices head from here?  Given the yields (USDA estimate of 168 bu. /acre is expected to hold for the time being) that have been harvested with virtually no delay in most areas the crop risk threat has all but disappeared for both corn and soybeans.  South America’s planting has progressed well and barring any big weather issues, Brazil is expecting to grow another record crop, estimates are running from 100-103 million metric tons which doesn’t help spur any rallies here in prices.  Of course that is a big IF at this early stage and any threats to that crop that could boost our markets is several weeks down the road.  A few potential market-movers, especially as we move into 2016 are: ... view details

Harvest Update and Weather - Oct, 21 October 2015
Before the 2015 harvest is complete we are already hearing estimates about what next year’s U.S. acreage will look like.  Within the trade there has been a lot of conversation about the potential of U.S. corn acres increasing from this year.  This may be a result of the estimates released from Informa that predict 2016 corn acres at 90.8 million up 100,000 from a previous estimate and a 2.4 million acre increase from this year.  Soybean acres are also expected to grow by 700,000 from this year to 83.9 million acres. All of this data is adding to the bearish attitude that appears to be developing over higher than expected yields and harvested acres this year. In fact the corn crop in the U.S. is likely to be the best ever on record or the second best ever. Until other news can gain the attention of traders the likelihood of a price rally is low and the odds of retesting market lows is high.  ... view details

USDA Update, Yield Data and Weather - Oct, 13 October 2015
The Climate Prediction Center has put out an update for the El Niño outlook.  According to their data, we have a 95% chance of a continuation with the system in the Northern Hemisphere through the upcoming winter with gradual weakening throughout the spring of 2016.  As mentioned before an El Niño winter will likely mean above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation over the northern portion of the U.S. while the southern region is expected to see below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.  I have had many old-timers tell me that this will be a very harsh winter in the northern region of the country, we will soon find out who’s correct. ... view details

Upcoming USDA Report and Corn Demand - Oct, 06 October 2015
Friday we will hear the latest USDA Supply and Demand report.   Many traders are thinking that the current corn yield of 167.5 is slightly higher than it should be.  We need to keep in mind though that there have been a lot of really good yields being reported in Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska in the Western region.  The Eastern region is seeing much variability which was expected but there are also reports with some higher than expected yields from some of the early harvested fields even in these hard hit areas.  All of this recent data may make the forecasting of the final yield much more complicated at this point in the crop  year for the USDA.  In addition to figuring out yield they also will need to adjust the total corn acres which many expect to see reduced by 400,000 to 700,000 acres. ... view details

USDA Worksheet, Brazil and Declining Exports - Sep, 29 September 2015
Tomorrow, September 30th the USDA will release the Quarterly Stocks numbers.  There can be some grey area involved with this report because many may argue that the early new-crop that has been harvested can be blended with some of the old-crop supplies.  Historically this report has had a tendency to cause prices to move lower according to data research from FC Stone.  In their research they looked back over the past 4 years and found that 3 out of the 4 years the corn market turned lower and 2 of those 4 years we had limit moves-1 time we saw limit higher and 1 time limit lower.  Soybeans have also taken a downturn in 3 out of the past 4 years.  The trade will likely be most interested in last year’s soybean production numbers which many analysts believe was exaggerated at 3.97 billion bushels.  The real question will be how much was the production exaggerated, anything less than 100 million bushels will likely not receive much attention. ... view details

U.S. Corn Importers and Farm Debt Warning - Sep, 22 September 2015
We hear a lot about China and their enormous demand for soybeans from the U.S. and other exporting countries.  It seems though that we hear little about our top importer of U.S. corn, as well as the world’s largest corn purchaser, Japan.  They produce almost no coarse grains but have a large livestock industry and since in the past the corn they purchased was used for livestock feed the quality was highly important to them.  In recent years though demand for corn used for feed use has leveled off, while imports for starch manufacturing and other industrial uses have grown.  One of our biggest competitors for corn exports to Japan has been the EU, what is quite interesting about this is that the EU has experienced corn production issues this year.  Since quality is very important to the Japanese this may open the door for additional sales of U.S. corn to Japan that have not been factored into current expectations. ... view details

USDA Worksheet and Harvest Progress - Sep, 15 September 2015
Kevin Van Trump of the Van Trump Report considers the latest USDA adjustments to be “neutral” even though “the yield was lowered from 168.8 down to 167.5, putting total production at 13.6 billion bushels, down 4 percent from last year’s record crop.  The problem is the bulls were hoping to see a bigger reduction, if realized this will still be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the U.S.”  “The bulls also still believe last year’s crop was overstated by several million bushels and some type of adjustment to the balance sheet will eventually need to be made.  Total harvested acres were left unchanged at 83.5 million and will more than likely be addressed next month, many are still looking for a 1-2 million acre reduction.” ... view details

Crop Estimate\\\'s and Winter Weather Outlook - Sep, 08 September 2015
I read an article this week that compared the global currency market to a spider web.  As the value of the U.S. Dollar rises and other currencies fall, it makes our products much more expensive for them to buy.  I mentioned the weakness in the Brazilian Real in a recent Weekly Update, this past week it reached a new low that it has not hit since October, 2002.  The Australian Dollar also fell to a low that was set back in April, 2009.  What makes this situation unique is that typically when we have had a strong Dollar, other countries that we do business with have also had strong currency values.  This time it different, the currency war we are experiencing now is a very big thing, affecting all producers around the country.  As producers we know that the current prices offered to us are too cheap, because our input costs have not adjusted downward with the price of the products we are producing.  If those costs adjusted accordingly, then commodity prices would seem more aligned with expenses. ... view details

2015 Farm Income & Harvest Weather Forecast - Aug, 25 August 2015
Today the USDA announced a grim outlook for farm income.  Net farm income is expected to decline to $58.3 billion, a 36% drop this year, the lowest since 2006.  This is the largest year to year decline that the U.S. has seen since 1983 and is a result of the fall of commodity values, 7% on corn and 12% on soybeans.  Harvest has begun and is running ahead of normal pace is all states.  Louisiana is 87% complete, Georgia 62%, Mississippi 52%, and Texas is reporting 47% harvested.  There are also reports saying that some fields in the Eastern Corn Belt are being harvested for silage use. ... view details

Warm Forecast and Corn Price - Sep, 01 September 2015
Harvest is progressing northward and as it does the ongoing debate about the U.S. yield continues.  Many producers in Illinois have begun harvesting and reports are coming in showing yields -10- -30% below last year.  This may sound like an alarming yield loss but it is likely what the trade has been expecting to hear.  Some news that is fresh though are the new complications found in top-producing portions of Iowa where vast amounts of damaging rainfall have fallen over the last few days.  This damage was not factored into the latest USDA crop conditions rating that came out yesterday and the U.S. crop was still lowered by    -1%.  This puts the current Good to Excellent rating at 68% compared to 74% at this time last year. ... view details

Cash Rents and Crop Tour Results - Aug, 21 August 2015
As we approach September 1st many producers across the nation are having the difficult conversation regarding cash rent prices for 2016.  According to information gathered through a 2015 survey from Iowa State University typical rates for Iowa farm ground in 2013 were $270.00, 2014 decreased to $260.00 and for 2015 rates declined further to $246.00 per acre.  This coincides quite closely to USDA prices cited in the Land Owner publication from Pro Farmer which puts Iowa 2013 rent at $270.00, 2014 at $260.00 and 2015 at $250.00 per acre.  There are a couple of additional resources available online for additional help in setting fair cash rent.  These can be found in the Ag Decision Maker-Iowa State University Extension website, under the Whole Farm, Leasing you will find towards the middle of the page the section titled Cash leases.  Computing a Cropland Cash Rental Rate and Flexible Farm Lease Agreements are both helpful tools to assist you through this stressful process. ... view details

Crop Yield & Upcoming Report Worksheet - Aug, 11 August 2015
Several analysts groups are beginning to report their crop yield expectations for 2015. Bloomberg did a survey last week of 31 analysts and trading firms and announced the average estimated yield of 13.332 billion bushels. One particular group Descartes Labs located at the Los Alamos Laboratory in Los Alamos, New Mexico uses infrared images from satellites to analyze U.S. farmland.  The satellites are able to capture images at a resolution of 1/5 of an acre and data collected shows that conditions are worsening for this year’s corn crop.  ... view details

Weather, Prices and Crop Progress - Aug, 04 August 2015
Everyone’s attention is focused primarily on weather, here in the U.S. as well as around the globe during this portion of the growing season.  Here in the U.S. we are experiencing about every weather extreme possible, with historical droughts in the West, record setting rainfall in portions of the South and eastern Midwest and ideal conditions in the Heartland.  Looking around the globe crop conditions in the European Union are being stressed with hot and dry weather with no end in sight for at least another week.  Based on this the European Commission has lowered its original forecast for corn harvest by 3 million metric tons to 65.5 million.  This figure is nearly 16% lower than last year and would mark a three-year low. Meanwhile Australia’s crop is beginning to recover as rainfall over Western Australia has increased expectations for harvest yields this year.  Previously, CBH Group (a grain handling company) had projected 10-11 million metric tons this harvest but now have raised that estimate up to 13 m.m.t. ... view details

Market Bulls vs Market Bears - Jul, 30 July 2015
The market bulls are finding it very challenging to support a long-term rally especially with the majority of analysts raising yield estimates up to 165-170 bushels per acre.  Previous production estimates from Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio have all seen those previous estimates raised.  Nearly perfect weather conditions found across the Corn Belt have spurred much of this talk.   Along with this news the market bears have had help keeping prices lower with the higher U.S. Dollar which brings with it little growth in demand and the recent decline in ethanol production which has fallen off a bit due to competition from South America.  Other countries such as South Korea, Egypt and Taiwan are also buying more of their corn supplies from Brazil.  Kevin Van Trump said it well, “if you’re not feeding the bulls with fresh new headlines about further crop deterioration, you’re feeding the bears with hopes of above trend-line yields…somebody’s going to eat!” ... view details

State By State Expectations & Market Influences - Jul, 21 July 2015
The market has quickly turned downward as headlines regarding production issues begin to deteriorate.  Soon we will begin to receive crop quality and yield expectations from various crop tour scouts.  If the reports show more serious complications we can expect the bulls to push prices higher but if the news indicates that the problems have been exaggerated then the bears will be in control.  There have already been several private crop tours and much of the news from these predicts an average national yield around 162 to 163 bushels per acre, lower than the current USDA estimate of 166.8 bushels per acre.  The other issue remains how many total acres will be harvested and how many will be “zeroed out”.  Right now the guestimated harvested acres for corn range from 80.3 to 81.2 million acres.  The trade has put together yield estimates by state, these are only guesses and A LOT of time remains in this growing season for these numbers to change. In the list below I have included only the 8-states that the USDA uses for their “weighted average”, 4 of which are looking at possible record yields this year while the other 4 are huge unknown but all are predicted to fall well below last year’s numbers. ... view details

El Niño Pattern Brings Weather Market - Jul, 14 July 2015
I decided to share this statement I read with you today because it’s so important to remember this as we move through the rest of the crop year: This is a true "weather market," so make certain you stay belted in and constantly remind yourself how fast and far prices can move...in both directions.   El Niño continues to be the weather pattern in control globally and appears to be gaining strength as earlier predicted, and may now last into the early spring of 2016.  Meteorologist give it a 90% of lasting throughout the winter and an 80% chance of surviving until spring. We have all heard of El Niño before and we will continue to, as the normal course of weather patterns seems to show us that on average every 2-7 years we can ... view details

Crop Conditions and Weather Maps - Jul, 07 July 2015
The crop conditions report yesterday showed a 1% increase in the good to excellent category for corn while the soybeans rated good to excellent stayed unchanged.  This was a bit of a negative for the market as most traders had expected to see a 2-3% decrease this week in both corn and soybean ratings.    The trade is now starting to look towards the July Supply and Demand report which will contain data from the June 30th report, some of which could already see changes such as carryout and acres.  The list below shows us where some of the significant “crop swapping” occurred for this year: ... view details

Crop Report and Crop Comparisons - Jun, 30 June 2015
The USDA’s Crop Condition report was released yesterday which showed the Good to Excellent category dropped again, this time by -3% to 68%.  In comparison that puts this crops rating -7% lower than the rating was at this time last year.  Nearby years to compare to: 2013 reported the same crop conditions rating at this point, by the end of July it had fallen to 63% and by the end of August 47%, that year we saw a 158 bushels per acre final national yield. (keep in mind though that we were coming off the 2012 drought and soil conditions had not returned to moisture levels near todays levels) 2012 the crop rating fell from 56% Good to Excellent on June 25th to 48% one week later, with a final national yield averaged of 123 bushels per acre.  ... view details

Upcoming Acreage Report and Weather Update - Jun, 23 June 2015
The June 30th acreage report is just one week away and the market is beginning to give their estimates for how many acres of corn and soybeans have been planted for 2015.  Soybeans are the most complicated to predict, partly due to the challenging weather conditions many producers have faced this season.  There is a lot of water sitting in empty soybean fields, like a farmer from Missouri asked on Ag Web’s Crop Comments page, “Where are the beans??? Disaster from Kansas City east, water standing in empty bean fields!”  Many analysts are asking themselves the same question!  Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain agrees that “the acreage question in soybeans is really tough to figure out. When the USDA said 84.6 million acres in March everyone thought it was too low.  We reverted back to a number maybe towards 86 and now we’re second-guessing it, because of all of these acres that haven’t been planted.”  Informa lowered their planted soybean acreage estimate on Friday to 86.76 million from their previous estimate of 87.18 million, notice that this is above the USDA’s current estimate of 84.63 million and is still at a record level. ... view details

Rain, Rain, Rain and the Crop Progress - Jun, 16 June 2015
As usual the attention remains on the forecast.  There is quite a variation in weather from west to east across the country.  In the Desert Southwest temps hit nearly 110 degrees and remain dry, the Plains remain cool and rainy and the Corn Belt has seen extensive showers.  These moisture patterns look to continue as a very active weather pattern is forecasted to move into nation’s mid-section as a tropical wave is expected to advance from southern Texas into the central Plains, Midwest and onto the Mid-Atlantic states as we move through the week.  Rainfall totals over the next 5 days are expected to range from 4-8 inches from eastern Texas into the middle Mississippi Valley and the eastern Corn Belt.  Heavy rainfall is also expected in the northern Plains but with lower overall totals than the other areas. All of this is on the heels of, according to NOAA, the wettest month EVER recorded. ... view details

Upcoming USDA Report and More Weather - Jun, 09 June 2015
Weather across the nation will persist to be the focus of attention for marketers for the next few months.  The current Drought Monitor, which is watched heavily by marketers, is looking more favorable than it has in a very long time in much of the country.  Additionally there are no high-pressure ridges or heat domes to pump in crop-damaging heat at this point, all of this is giving the markets no weather worries as of yet or adding any risk premium to the price’s. ... view details

Market Expectations and Weather - Jun, 02 June 2015
The sharp drop in value of the U.S. Dollar today has helped advance corn, soybeans and wheat.  This has brought buyers back to the market and could hopefully be the shift in money flow we have needed and the potential shift in attitude necessary for further advances.  Funds have been weighted to the short side for many weeks this drop in the value of the U.S. Dollar could be the start of a short-covering rally we have been waiting for, only time will tell.  “Bulls need to be fed,” so continued money flow is important to keep the attitude positive, or much higher advances in futures prices will be difficult to reach even with current concerns over planting delays in several rain soaked regions.  There is an old saying, “rain makes grain”, that the trade buys in to and this belief is a hard one to break even though there are obviously many thousands of acres of lost production and acres that will not get planted.  Losses such as those we are seeing in the south are significant but not as substantial as when those acres are found in the heart of the Corn Belt. ... view details

Weather and Crop Conditions - May, 26 May 2015
The current USDA estimated corn yield for 2015 sits at 166.8 bushels per acre which would be the 2nd highest yield in history.  Recent satellite imagery from Lanworth has estimated corn acreage at 89.5 million acres which is 300,000 more acres than the USDA estimate; soybean acres have been estimated to be 85.6 million acres which is 1 million more than the USDA estimate.  There has also been a lot of speculation about what we may expect to see in the initial corn crop rating.  ... view details

Weather and the Holiday Weekend - May, 19 May 2015
The story nationally is weather.  Severe weather crossed through much of the Midwest over the weekend bringing substantial rainfall up to 3 inches to areas from the Rocky Mountains to the upper Midwest.  Portions of the South Central U.S. saw even heavier amounts ranging up to 4 inches in some areas.  In addition  chilly conditions have returned to the northern Plains and much of the west, there was even snow reported in parts of North Dakota This low-pressure system carrying the cold-air mass is expected to move through the Midwest during the early part of the week, dropping temperatures by as much as 20 degrees below normal.  More seasonable temperatures are expected to return by the end of the week while a new storm system is expected to develop across the nation’s mid-section once again.  Rainfall totals from this new system are expected to reach 2-5 inches in south-central regions which will likely cause flooding in those areas. ... view details

El Niño-Here To Stay and Crop Report Update - May, 13 May 2015
The world’s #1 economy has gone several years without a hike in interest rates and we are also in the midst of the third longest period in U.S. history without a 10% correction in the U.S. stock market.  This along with other world issues has caused concern with money managers about the overall direction of the “global investment landscape”.  Due to this uncertainty investors are becoming more undecided about where to invest their assets.  As a result there are more conversations inside the trade that “commodities are starting to base and may soon be the focus of increasing investment dollars”.  A renewed interest in this sector would be a welcomed and positive change. ... view details

Weather Overview and the Planting Progress - May, 05 May 2015
The LA Times reported that state water officials cancelled their trip planned back to the Sierra Nevada Mountains this past weekend to measure the current snow pack.  For the second month in a row there would not be any snow present to measure.  Conditions have worsened for the state even since the last measurement which was taken April 1st and measured to be just 5% of normal.  The snow pack is vital to California as it accounts for 30% of states water supply.  As the map below shows other areas of drought are also present in the U.S.  The Palmer Drought monitor shows that much of South Dakota and parts of North Dakota and Minnesota are seeing moderate to extreme drought conditions as well. ... view details

Great Weather and Planting Progress - Apr, 28 April 2015
Planting progress will likely surge ahead this week in most regions of the country with corn planting progressing faster than data can be collected.  Timeliness of planting dates generally equates to better yields but history has proven to us that these “rules” are made to be broken from time to time.  What Mother Nature brings us through the remainder of the growing season is as important as planting dates, for example:  In 2010 the corn planting pace on this date was 68% completed, that season the final yield averaged 152.8 bushels per acre. In 2013 only 5% of the corn crop had been planted by this date, the final average yield for that crop year reached 158.8 bushels per acre. ... view details

Bird Flu Spreads and Weather - Apr, 21 April 2015
Weather conditions are still a major focus for market movement.  The Delta region of the U.S. has seen a continuous line of rain events move through the region over the past several weeks, (in many areas ranging from 3-8 inches above normal) slowing planting in some areas and bringing progress to a halt in others.  Over the next couple of weeks though a continued wet pattern may become more of a market factor as the end of April also marks the beginning of the prevent-plant insurance date for many producers in this region.  It is widely thought that alternative crops will be planted as replacements to any unplanted corn acres at that point; acres that are believed to impact approximately 500,000 acres.  ... view details

Where Will Planted Acres Finally End Up? - Apr, 14 April 2015
For several months now there has been a considerable amount of discussion regarding the corn-soybean planting intentions of producers across the nation.  At the USDA’s Outlook Forum held this winter, the USDA suggested a possible reduction in soybean acres compared to last year, the opposite thought process of most others in the business.  The fact of the matter is though a shift of a couple million soybean acres or about 90 million bushels, probably won’t make much of a price difference given the USDA’s 429 million bushel carryout this last month.  The scenario changes substantially if those acres lost are actually corn acres instead of soybeans though.  According to Jerry Gulke president of the Gulke Group, “a 2 million acres decrease in corn would reduce the 2015/2016 carryover to 1.366 billion bushels from USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum estimate of 1.686 billion bushels making prices very sensitive to any weather problem.  Each 1- bushel drop in corn yield represents roughly an 80 million bushel drop in production.  Trend line yield is estimated at 165 bushels; whereas the last eight year average is about 152 bushels.  ... view details

Weather and Demand - Apr, 07 April 2015
An increase in crop production around the globe over the past several years has led to the abundance of supplies now found. Last year the Ukraine produced 60 million metric tons of grain with an expected increase of up to 80 million metric tons for this year. This would be a substantial increase but now due to the continued unrest they face with Russia this increase seems very unlikely.  Inflation in the Ukraine is at 30% and at the same time the value to their currency has fallen by 50% which together makes the financing and purchasing of crop inputs very difficult if not impossible.  ... view details

USDA Report and Price Outlooks - Mar, 31 March 2015
From this point forward the weather is going to likely be a big deciding factor in the direction of price movements for the next several weeks.  It’s way too wet in some areas of the south and it’s becoming increasingly too dry in parts of the northern Corn Belt and Plains.  It’s wet enough in southern regions that field work is falling behind the normal pace.      ... view details

China and A Change in the Markets - Mar, 24 March 2015
The much awaited USDA Quarterly Stocks Report and Perspective Plantings data will finally be announced next week, March 31st.  The most debated unknown still remains where planted U.S. corn acres will come in, will they find intentions above or below 88 million acres for 2015.  Informa has adjusted a few of their “planted acreage” estimates for this production year.  Last week they lowered their estimated corn acres to 88.5 million which is a decrease of 75,000 acres.  They also lowered the soybean acreage by 547,000 acres to 87.5 million acres.  Many traders are looking for a corn acreage number to be somewhere between 88 – 90 million acres depending on weather with an average yield guess of 163-170 bushels per acre, this compares to the current USDA estimate of 89 million acres.  Below is an interesting chart that compares planted corn acres and final yields from 1994 to 2015.  ... view details

Quarterly Stocks & Prospective Plantings Reports - Mar, 16 March 2015
Focus for producers is now set on the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports which will be announced at the end of the month on March 31st.  Last week the government agency gave us updated numbers for U.S and World Ending Stocks as well as South America's production which have had little impact on the trade thus far.  The corn numbers were considered somewhat bullish due to a larger than expected reduction in U.S. and global ending stocks; soybeans were bearish due to ending stocks and exports being left unchanged. ... view details

March Supply and Demand Reports - Mar, 09 March 2015
Tomorrow, March 10th, the USDA releases the March Supply and Demand reports.   In advance of the report tomorrow moderate advances are being seen today as the Funds are covering their short positions before the report.  Very few changes are really expected in the domestic numbers, 3 out of 4 years the carryout numbers are left unchanged from the February to March reports.  Therefore the main focus will be on global balance sheets, especially the corn and soybean production numbers out of South America.  The Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports will be out at the end of this month which is likely to have a much larger impact of the market.  The acreage number is very important and has been highly debated for several months now, finally the surveys have been sent out to a cross-section of producers to determine the USDA March acreage number ... view details

Crop Insurance Spring Prices and Issues in S.A. - Mar, 03 March 2015
A continuation of delays coming out of South America has given some strength to the markets last week.  The truckers strike continues, the nearly 2-week old protest has slowed grain deliveries, has forced meat-processing plants to shut down and has left some grocery stores with limited supplies and in some cases bare shelves. It also has slowed the harvest, diesel fuel deliveries have been hampered by this strike leaving farmers with fuel shortages pushing the percent of harvest completed to 29% versus the average of 39% just a year ago.  A spokesperson at Brazil’s #2 exporting port of Paranagua said the delivery rate increased Monday to 950 trucks which doubled the previous day’s totals but is still far below the normal rate for this time of year.  If this situation continues Paranagua could experience a shortage of product to fill orders by today or tomorrow.  If this goes another week to 10 days that could mean an additional 10 million bushels to our export numbers to China which may not be a significant amount but it may be enough to make somewhat of an impact. ... view details

Spring Planting Forecast and Ag Forum Update - Feb, 24 February 2015
The USDA’s Agriculture Outlook Forum was held last week February 19-20th in Arlington, VA.  Many topics relating to agriculture were discussed including the Outlook for crop prices and acreage forecasts for the 2015 crop.  For this upcoming crop year the Forum expects to see an average corn price of $3.69/bu. and an average price of $9.90/bu. for soybeans.  All of these predictions are very subjective and the majority of the time altered as the year progresses.  For instance last year the Outlook Forum expected 79.5 million acres of soybeans, then in the USDA’s March Intentions report that number was moved to 81.5 million in January that figure was again adjusted to 83.7 million acres for 2014.  All of these figures are established on projections by economists based on trend line yields and estimated acres.  ... view details

Buying Acres? Important Report Dates - Feb, 17 February 2015
The continued focus of the market right now is based on the predictions of various experts and what they believe the next production year will bring us?  The uncertainty surrounding acres, demand, weather here in the U.S and abroad and outside global issues all are intertwined to determine the course of grain prices.  One thing we know is that producers have built up supplies to levels that could mean weak prices for the next couple of years but nothing is certain when so many other forces influence price.  Market analyst Bob Utterback expects that we should see the bottom in the market by the fall of 2016 due in part to the recovery in the livestock numbers and increased feed usage by then.  Of course financial conditions around the world also play a role, we need to see China and Europe’s financial situation level off or improve before we can really expect to see a jump in prices. ... view details

WASDE Numbers - Feb, 10 February 2015
The Brazilian government made an announcement recently that it intends to raise the ethanol blend rate to 27% from the current 25% level.  This may have a bigger impact on our ethanol market than you may think; given it is just a 2% increase.  It may be enough to eliminate Brazil from the ethanol export business and may actually cause them to increase ethanol imports to meet this new blend rate.  This may be the boost we have needed for our U.S. ethanol industry that has recently seen supplies building.  In addition movement in the country has been slow and corn has been able to break through some technical resistance. ... view details

Price Relationship and Acres - Feb, 06 February 2015
The million dollar question we all continue to hear asked and debated is how many corn acres will producers plant in 2015? Of course there are several ideas from various analysts and marketing firms, I have included a few for you to consider. Fact is the next 70 days will tell us much of the rest of that story. Chip Nellinger, Co-Owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing feels that if the current price relationship of corn and soybeans doesn’t improve during the next 70 days there will likely be a lot of producers not planting corn or at least drastically reducing those acres. Farmers in the Delta area are saying that “corn isn’t even in the equation right now” and plan to plant many of those acres to soybeans. In an interview conducted recently of seed salesmen in Iowa, Indiana and Illinois revealed that the sales of seed corn have fallen off substantially and soybean seed sales have risen. Chip Nellinger’s firm has predicted that if the price relationship (between corn and soybeans) does not improve we may see up to 4 million acres of corn shift! ... view details

A Narrow Price Channel for Corn - Jan, 28 January 2015
The lead story for today is the massive winter storm, Juno, affecting 7 states in the northeastern portion of the U.S.  This storm is expected to impact at least 28 million people with its blizzard conditions through Wednesday morning with even more people affected by nearly 8,000 cancelled flights and thousands more delayed.  Conditions have led the state of Connecticut to issue a state wide travel ban that went into effect last evening at 9:00 p.m.  Weather around the rest of the U.S. is remaining relatively quiet for the next few days with continued above normal temperatures expected until the weekend. ... view details

Price Factors - Jan, 20 January 2015
Traders are now turning their attention to new crop production and away from old crop production and the familiar debate over how many acres will be planted and yield estimates are starting.  Initial estimates place the range from 87 to 90 million acres with many agreeing that the final number will most likely rest above 89 million.  A total above 89 million is considered bearish where a number below 88 million would appear much more bullish.  If corn prices hold at current levels or rise even a little higher, traders feel that we could actually see corn acres closer to 90 million.  The next variable will be where the USDA will estimate the yield to be, many believe that they will likely start out somewhere between 165.5 and 167.5 ... view details

USDA Report Recap - Jan, 12 January 2015
The USDA released their final numbers for the 2014 crop year yesterday and traders are busy making adjustments to their figures.  The bulls remain positive based on better than expected exports and the possibility of increased feed usage over the next months.  The bears, of course, look at the same data and point out exports may be strong currently but the continued strength of the U.S. dollar will likely erode those numbers.  Another potential negative is the continued decline of oil prices, now the bears question if the higher estimates given for corn used for ethanol production are over stated as well.  We are all excited about the lower prices at the gas pumps but are those prices just returning to price levels we haven’t seen for a while? Yes, the world has just seen 8 years of historically high prices for crude.  Out of those 8 years those with the highest average prices were 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2013; makes one wonder if we are simply seeing a cyclical return back to more normal price levels.  Question remains though, what could that mean for the growth of the ethanol industry here in the U.S. above the current mandate?      ... view details

Market Movers and Informa Numbers - Jan, 06 January 2015
Soybeans continue to find support from demand. Currently we have shipped out 64% of our yearly estimates and export loadings are up 22% indicating that yearly projected totals may be larger than previously forecasted. This is all positive news but the unknown factor is whether or not these figures are all front loaded and how much will they fall off when South America begins their export season. There is little chance that we won?t see a decrease in demand, how much is the unknown at this time. If demand and exports were to continue at current levels total usage could hit 250 million bushels more than the USDA is expecting bringing ending stocks to 160 million bushels. ... view details

Outside Markets and Holiday Travel - Dec, 22 December 2014
There are many significant questions and concerns at work in the U.S. and around the world right now influencing the markets. 1. Oil. The price of crude oil is trying to stabilize but some feel the bottom has not yet been reached yet. Many questions exist about how this downward trend will ultimately affect the economy here in the U.S. Whenever you take the most important commodity in the world and make it worth half of its value in 6-8 weeks there is probably going to be an effect we just aren?t seeing yet. ... view details

Is There A Change of Heart In China? - Dec, 15 December 2014
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Taxes and USDA - Dec, 08 December 2014
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Market Movers and Net Farm Income - Dec, 01 December 2014
Exports for last week were strong across the board; bookings in fact were high enough that totals reached U.S.D.A projected levels. This came as somewhat of a surprise to corn as an unknown buyer (possibly China) took the largest amount. There is some hope in the U.S. corn market now that we will begin to begin to see an increase in outside demand from the global market. Since the world corn values have risen to levels matching those in the U.S. the draw of cheaper grain from other sources is disappearing....... ... view details

Future Weather Outlook and Price Direction - Nov, 24 November 2014
Uncertainty prevails amongst producers about what direction prices are going and where exactly they will land. Currently money invested by the Funds is not having much influence on prices but the sizable long positions they hold in corn makes the price very vulnerable to any liquidation?s they may decide to make.... ... view details

The Future of Corn - Nov, 17 November 2014
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Price Gouging and Rundown of USDA Report Numbers - Nov, 10 November 2014
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Price Rallies and Farm Bill Meetings - Nov, 03 November 2014
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Weather in the U.S. and South America - Oct, 31 October 2014
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Marketing Considerations - Oct, 23 October 2014
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Analyze seed costs, cash flow, fertilizer for 2015 - Oct, 20 October 2014
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Grain Shipping Costs Skyrocket - Oct, 13 October 2014
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KEY Dates for Farm Bill & Markets - Oct, 06 October 2014
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Weather and Harvest Movement - Sep, 30 September 2014
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Yields, Acres and Prices-Where Are They Headed? - Sep, 22 September 2014
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A Wetter and Colder Than Normal Fall - Sep, 15 September 2014
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USDA Accuracy and Polar Vortex - Sep, 08 September 2014
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Farm Bill Update - Sep, 02 September 2014
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Another Potential Wild Ride - Aug, 19 August 2014
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Moisture = Yield ? - Aug, 25 August 2014
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Looking For A Bright Spot - Aug, 04 August 2014
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Difference In Number Of Pods - Jul, 30 July 2014
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Yield Expectations and China - Jul, 28 July 2014
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No Dog Days This Summer - Jul, 21 July 2014
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Price Action and Outlook - Jul, 14 July 2014
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Crop Conditions and Falling Prices - Jul, 08 July 2014
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USDA Report Numbers - Jun, 30 June 2014
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Prices and Field Conditions - Jun, 23 June 2014
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Farm Program Update - Jun, 16 June 2014
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Market Influences - Jun, 09 June 2014
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Price Direction and Weather - Jun, 02 June 2014
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Weather, Climate and Prices - May, 27 May 2014
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EPA Regulations and Planting Progress - May, 19 May 2014
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El Ni?o and the Money Flow - May, 13 May 2014
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Weekly Focal Points - May, 05 May 2014
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Weather and Markets - Apr, 28 April 2014
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The Weather and Crop Progress - Apr, 21 April 2014
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Market Movers and Farm Program Information - Apr, 14 April 2014
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Fund Direction-Bull or Bear? - Apr, 07 April 2014
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USDA Update - Mar, 31 March 2014
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USDA and Weather Outlooks - Mar, 24 March 2014
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History On Our Side or Yellow Flags? - Mar, 17 March 2014
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Supply and Demand Report & Spring Planting - Mar, 10 March 2014
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Possible New Bull Market - Mar, 03 March 2014
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Ag Outlook Overview & More GMO Issues - Feb, 24 February 2014
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Drought Emergency and Crop Insurance - Feb, 10 February 2014
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Farm Bill and Sparking a Rally - Feb, 03 February 2014
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Quick Farm Bill Overview - Jan, 27 January 2014
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Range Bound Prices - Jan, 20 January 2014
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Where Do Things Sit Now? - Jan, 13 January 2014
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Upcoming USDA Report - Jan, 06 January 2014
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South America, China and Upcoming USDA Report - Dec, 31 December 2013
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What to Plant & The US Dollar - Dec, 23 December 2013
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USDA and What If... - Dec, 16 December 2013
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Upcoming Reports and Weather in South America - Dec, 09 December 2013
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Prices and Farm Bill Insight - Dec, 02 December 2013
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Grain Prices and Brazil - Nov, 25 November 2013
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Ethanol Debate and Farm Profits - Nov, 17 November 2013
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Bounce or Rally and EPA Mandate - Nov, 11 November 2013
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USDA Report and Market Trends - Nov, 03 November 2013
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Farm Bill Negotiations Set Begin This Week - Oct, 28 October 2013
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USDA Report Lag and Grain Prices - Oct, 21 October 2013
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Harvest Underway - Oct, 14 October 2013
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The Government Shutdown & Farmland Values - Oct, 07 October 2013
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USDA Numbers and Weather Around the World - Sep, 30 September 2013
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Revised FSA Unplanted Acres Numbers - Sep, 23 September 2013
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USDA Numbers and South America - Sep, 16 September 2013
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Weather Outlook and Syria - Sep, 09 September 2013
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Fear Driven Market - Sep, 03 September 2013
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Crop Conditions Fall & Pro Farmer Yield Results - Aug, 26 August 2013
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Midwest Crop Tour Update & Prevent Plant Data - Aug, 19 August 2013
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Crop Insurance & USDA Report Numbers - Aug, 12 August 2013
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FROST: When Will It Arrive and What Will It Mean? - Aug, 06 August 2013
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Basis Collapse & Weather Expectations - Jul, 29 July 2013
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Corn Under Pressure, Soybeans Are Up - Jul, 22 July 2013
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Funds and Weather Conditions - Jul, 15 July 2013
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Uphill Battle & Reports - Jul, 08 July 2013
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USDA Reports and Weather - Jul, 01 July 2013
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Farm Bill Fizzles and Upcoming USDA Report - Jun, 24 June 2013
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Where Do The Numbers Come From? - Jun, 17 June 2013
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GDU Comparison and Weather - Jun, 10 June 2013
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Continued Wet and Cold - What Will it Mean Long Term? - Jun, 03 June 2013
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Market Volatility and Crop Progress - May, 28 May 2013
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Yield Loss and Planting Progress - May, 20 May 2013
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Grain Prices and U.S.D.A. Report - May, 13 May 2013
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Weather Outlook and Planting Progress - May, 06 May 2013
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Weather and Crop Progress - Apr, 29 April 2013
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Planting Progress at a Standstill - Apr, 22 April 2013
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New Crop Focus - Apr, 15 April 2013
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Weather Trends - Apr, 08 April 2013
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Up-to-date U.S.D.A. Reports - Apr, 01 April 2013
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Market Direction - Mar, 25 March 2013
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Inverted Price - Mar, 18 March 2013
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Reports, Exports and Prices - Mar, 11 March 2013
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Weather and Budget Cuts - Mar, 04 March 2013
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Bearish News for Grain Prices - Feb, 25 February 2013
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A Downward Turn in Grain - Feb, 18 February 2013
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Ships Waiting and Crop Insurance - Feb, 11 February 2013
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Forecasts and Insurance Options - Feb, 04 February 2013
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Exports and Drought Monitor - Jan, 28 January 2013
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Drought Conditions Persist - Jan, 22 January 2013
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Tax News and Weather in Brazil - Jan, 14 January 2013
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U.S.D.A. Reports - Jan, 09 January 2013
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Mississippi River Dropping - Dec, 31 December 2012
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Weather Expectations and Fund Selling - Dec, 24 December 2012
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Drought Numbers and S.A. Weather - Dec, 17 December 2012
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Farm Bill and WASDE Report - Dec, 11 December 2012
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Transportation Concerns and Weather - Dec, 03 December 2012
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Improving Exports and Weather Update - Nov, 26 November 2012
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Uncertainty Driving the Markets - Nov, 19 November 2012
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Fiscal Cliff and Weather Market - Nov, 13 November 2012
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Range-Bound - Oct, 29 October 2012
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Election Expectations & Exports - Nov, 05 November 2012
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Fiscal Cliff and More Weather Concerns - Oct, 22 October 2012
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Changing Focus - Oct, 15 October 2012
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USDA Reports - Oct, 09 October 2012
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Ag Performance Annual Plot Tour - Oct, 08 October 2012
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Ag Performance now offers Complete Bookwork - Oct, 03 October 2012
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USDA Report and South American Crop Cycle by Month - Oct, 02 October 2012
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Hemiller and Beenken featured in The Land article - Oct, 01 October 2012
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Ag Performance Plot Harvest - Sep, 28 September 2012
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Harvest Pressure or Something More? - Sep, 24 September 2012
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USDA Report and New Farm Bill - Sep, 17 September 2012
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What Should we do Now? - Sep, 10 September 2012
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Clay County Fair and Linder Farm Network Ag Technology Summit - Sep, 06 September 2012
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Are we Rationing Enough? - Sep, 04 September 2012
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Another Resource Impacted by Drought - Aug, 27 August 2012
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Tension Building - Aug, 22 August 2012
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Market Running Out of Steam...or Not? - Aug, 14 August 2012
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Demand Destruction versus Demand Rationing - Aug, 06 August 2012
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NAU Large Claim Requirements - Aug, 02 August 2012
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Crop Outlook Declining - Jul, 31 July 2012
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Kevin Ullmann - Our NEW Precicion Ag Technologies Consultant - Jul, 27 July 2012
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Dust Bowl Era Intensity - Jul, 24 July 2012
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Worsening Conditions - Jul, 16 July 2012
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On the Verge of a Disaster? - Jul, 09 July 2012
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Hot and Dry Weather and Crop Progress - Jul, 02 July 2012
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Weather Concerns - Jun, 25 June 2012
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Weather and Crop Progress(1) - Jun, 18 June 2012
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Crop Conditions - Jun, 12 June 2012
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Weather and Crop Conditions - Jun, 11 June 2012
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Unpredictable Future - Jun, 05 June 2012
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Market Update and Crop Progress - May, 29 May 2012
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Weather Market and Important Updates - May, 21 May 2012
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Planting Progress for May 15th - May, 15 May 2012
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Grain Markets and Crop Insurance Dates - May, 14 May 2012
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Positive Basis Levels and Expanded Trading Hours - May, 07 May 2012
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Child Labor and Planting Progress - Apr, 30 April 2012
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Planting Progress - Apr, 26 April 2012
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Farm Bill & Grain Markets - Apr, 23 April 2012
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Grain Markets - Apr, 17 April 2012
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USDA Report and Planting Progress - Apr, 09 April 2012
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USDA Report - Apr, 03 April 2012
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USDA Planting Intentions Report and USDA Grain Stocks Report - Mar, 27 March 2012
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Spring Outlook and Marketing Update - Mar, 19 March 2012
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This Boom is Different - Mar, 16 March 2012
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EVENT: Ag Performance Open House - Tuesday, March 27th. - Mar, 12 March 2012
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Release of USDA U.S./World Supply and Demand Estimates - Mar, 12 March 2012
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USDA U.S./World Supply and Demand - Mar, 08 March 2012
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Marketing and Crop Insurance Update - Feb, 27 February 2012
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Farm Bill & Crop Insurance Update - Feb, 22 February 2012
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February 28, 2012 - Hawkeye Farm Show - Feb, 13 February 2012
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Marketing and Event Update - Feb, 13 February 2012
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February 21, 2012 - Northwest Iowa Ag Outlook Show - Feb, 09 February 2012
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Marketing & Crop Insurance Update - Feb, 09 February 2012
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Weekly Update for January 30, 2012 - Jan, 30 January 2012
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Weekly Update for January 23, 2012 - Jan, 23 January 2012
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Weekly Update for January 19, 2012 - Jan, 19 January 2012
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Weekly Update for January 9, 2012 - Jan, 09 January 2012
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Weekly Update for January 2, 2012 - Jan, 05 January 2012
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Inputs-Spend Wisely - Dec, 27 December 2011
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What Should You Plant Next Year? - Sep, 23 September 2011
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Ag Performance Agronomy Workshop - Aug, 23 August 2011
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Ag Performance supports local 4-H & FFA groups. - Aug, 17 August 2011
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Noticeable Comparison in Corn Ears - Aug, 15 August 2011
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Aphids and Proper Tissue Samples - Aug, 01 August 2011
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Unfortunate Timing - Jul, 19 July 2011
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Nitrogen Levels May Be Falling - Jul, 13 July 2011
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Major Difference In The Soybean Nodulation - Jun, 16 June 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition and the importance of Minerals for Grain Health - Jun, 09 June 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on the Importance of Properly Chelated Products & Bulk-R - May, 28 May 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Trace Minerals and the Plants Response (6th in a series) - May, 27 May 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition (5th in a series) - May, 19 May 2011
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Why do some foliars work, while others do not? - May, 16 May 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition (4th in a series) - May, 17 May 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Stalk Residue - May, 13 May 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Pit Treatment - May, 11 May 2011
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Ag Performance-A Business Like No Other - Apr, 11 April 2011
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Round Up-Glyphosate & Micronutrient Loss - Mar, 22 March 2011
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Benefits of the Crop Residue Program - Mar, 22 March 2011
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How to Take Full Advantage of a Soybean Plant's Potential - Mar, 22 March 2011
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Release General Guidelines - Mar, 22 March 2011
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How to use Release In Furrow or as a Broadcast - Mar, 21 March 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition (3rd in a series) - Mar, 21 March 2011
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2011 Possible Drought? - Mar, 15 March 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition (2nd in a series) - Mar, 08 March 2011
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Is Price of Farmland, an Echo of Last Boom - Mar, 08 March 2011
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VIDEO - Ken Hamilton on Plant Nutrition - Mar, 04 March 2011
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Marketing Factors to Consider - Jan, 27 January 2011
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What to Plant the Million $Dollar$ Question - Jan, 26 January 2011
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